HomeMy WebLinkAbout2023-08-23 - Agenda Packet
Historic Preservation Commission
and
Planning Commission
Meeting Agenda
Rancho Cucamonga Civic Center
COUNCIL CHAMBERS
August 23, 2023
10500 Civic Center Drive
Rancho Cucamonga, CA 91730
7:00 PM
A. CALL TO ORDER AND PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE
ROLL CALL: Chair Dopp
Vice Chair Morales
Commissioner Williams
Commissioner Boling
Commissioner Daniels
B. PUBLIC COMMUNICATIONS
This is the time and place for the general public to address the Planning/Historic Commission (“Planning
Commission”) on any Consent Calendar item or any item not listed on the agenda that is within the
Commission’s subject matter jurisdiction. The Planning Commission may not discuss any issue not included
on the agenda, but may set the matter for discussion during a subsequent meeting.
C. CONSENT CALENDAR
C1. Consideration to adopt Regular Meeting Minutes of August 9, 2023.
D. PUBLIC HEARINGS
D1. CONDITIONAL USE PERMIT – LEGION FITNESS - A request to establish a large indoor fitness and
sports facility within an existing 7,977 square foot tenant space within the Neo-Industrial (NI) Zone,
located east of Archibald Avenue and north of 4th Street within the Archibald Center at 9785 Crescent
Center Drive Suite 301; APN: 0210-071-56. This item is exempt from the requirements of the
California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) under CEQA Section 15301 – Existing Facilities
(Conditional Use Permit DRC2023-00169).
E. GENERAL BUSINESS
E1. Presentation from Empire Economics Inc. on the City’s Annual Employment and Housing Trends
Study and Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Warehouse and Distribution Facilities. This item is not
a project as defined by the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and is therefore exempt from
CEQA review.
E2. Introduction to the City of Rancho Cucamonga’s Economic Development Strategy. This item is exempt
from the requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) under CEQA Section 15061
(b)(3) – Common Sense Exemption.
F. DIRECTOR ANNOUNCEMENTS
G. COMMISSION ANNOUNCEMENTS
H. ADJOURNMENT
TO ADDRESS THE PLANNING COMMISSION
The Planning Commission encourages free expression of all points of view. To allow all persons to speak,
given the length of the agenda, please keep your remarks brief. If others have already expressed your
position, you may simply indicate that you agree with a previous speaker. If appropriate, a spokesperson may
present the views of your entire group. To encourage all views and promote courtesy to others, the audience
should refrain from clapping, booing or shouts of approval or disagreement from the audience.
If you need special assistance or accommodations to participate in this meeting, please contact the City
Clerk's office at (909) 477-2700. Notification of 48 hours prior to the meeting will enable the City to make
reasonable arrangements to ensure accessibility. Listening devices are available for the hearing
impaired.
The public may address the Planning Commission on any agenda item. To address the Planning Commission,
please come forward to the podium. State your name for the record and speak into the microphone. After
speaking, please complete a speaker card located next to the speaker’s podium. It is important to list your
name, address (optional) and the agenda item letter your comments refer to. Comments are generally limited
to 3 minutes per individual.
If you wish to speak concerning an item not on the agenda, you may do so under “Public Communications.”
As an alternative to participating in the meeting you may submit comments in writing to
Elizabeth.Thornhill@cityofrc.us by 12:00 PM on the date of the meeting. Written comments will be distributed
to the Commissioners and included in the record.
AVAILABILITY OF STAFF REPORTS
Copies of the staff reports or other documentation to each agenda item are available at www.CityofRC.us.
APPEALS
Any interested party who disagrees with the City Planning Commission decision may appeal the Commission’s
decision to the City Council within 10 calendar days. Any appeal filed must be directed to the City Clerk’s
Office and must be accompanied by a fee of $3,365 for all decisions of the Commission. (Fees are established
and governed by the City Council).
Please turn off all cell phones while the meeting is in session.
I, Elizabeth Thornhill, Executive Assistant of the City of Rancho Cucamonga, or my designee, hereby
certify that a true, accurate copy of the foregoing agenda was posted at least Seventy-Two (72) hours
prior to the meeting per Government Code 54954.2 at 10500 Civic Center Drive, Rancho Cucamonga,
California and on the City's website.
Historic Preservation Commission and
Planning Commission Agenda
August 9, 2023
DRAFT MINUTES
Rancho Cucamonga, CA 91730
7:00 p.m.
The regular meeting of the Historic Presentation Commission and Planning Commission was held on August 9,
2023. The meeting was called to order by Chair Dopp at 7:00 p.m.
A. Roll Call
Planning Commission present: Chair Dopp, Vice Chair Morales, Commissioner Williams, Commissioner
Boling, and Commissioner Daniels.
Staff Present: Serita Young, Assistant City Attorney; Jennifer Nakamura, Deputy Director of Planning;
Tabe van der Zwaag, Associate Planner; Sean McPherson, Acting Principal Planner; Brian Sandona,
Senior Civil Engineer; Elizabeth Thornhill, Executive Assistant.
B. Public Communications
Chair Dopp opened the public communications and seeing no one, closed public communications.
C. Consent Calendar
C1.Consideration to adopt Regular Meeting Minutes of July 12th, 2023.
Motion to adopt Meeting Minutes as presented by Commissioner Boling; second by Commissioner Daniels;
Motion carried 5-0.
D. Public Hearings
D1. DESIGN REVIEW & MINOR EXCEPTION – FOOTHILL LANDING PROPERTY OWNER, LLC – A
request for a site plan and design review to construct a mixed-use development consisting of 360
residential units (including 3 live-work units with 3,100 square feet of commercial space) and 4,200
square feet of stand-alone commercial lease area, along with a Minor Exception for the reduction of the
required onsite parking on 6.14 acres of land at the northeast corner of Foothill Boulevard and Etiwanda
Avenue in the Corridor 2 (CO2) Zone. APN: 1100-161-01, 02, and 03 (Design Review DRC2022-00280
and Minor Exception DRC2023-00120).
Tabe van der Zwaag, Associate Planner, provided Commissioners with Staff Report and PowerPoint
presentation (copy of file). Staff asked the commission in their recommendation to consider proposed
revisions to Engineering Special Condition #2 after feedback from the applicant and conferring with the
Assistant City Attorney.
Chair Dopp opened Public Hearing.
Oren Hillel, Director of Development, thanked staff for their hard work. He provided a PowerPoint
presentation of the project to the Commissioners (copy of file). He introduced Keith Labus, Principal
at KTGY, who was also present and available to answer questions.
Vice Chair Morales asked about the the conditions of approval that requires additional screening for the parking
structure if visible, and what would that screening look like.
Keith Labus answered it will depend on where it is visible from. Options could include matching the building or
roof color.
Commissioner Boling asked if staff had any concerns about the landscaping being proposed along the frontage
road and interfering with line of sight for vehicles.
Brian Sandona, Senior Civil Engineer, answered that they will conduct a final review during plan check and ask
that the final plans move, shift, or remove any trees that will create conflict.
Commissioner Daniels asked if parking on that lane is restricted or if there will be time limits.
Brian Sandona replied not at this time. Although, it is something that can be considered in the future.
Chair Dopp asked if the live work units are utilized for commercial uses.
Oren Hillel stated that in other projects they own, small office uses, or service uses are most likely to utilize
live work units.
Commissioner Boling asked to explain how some of the logistics like trash and parking will work with
residents being on four different floors.
Oren Hillel explained there will be trash chutes throughout the building on every level.
The retail and guest parking are on the ground level and there is a gate for resident entrance only.
Commissioner Boling asked how emergency services respond if something happens on the third (3rd) level
of an interior parking structure.
Oren Hillel answered they have fire lanes throughout the project for fire trucks to come in and hose pulls
on all levels of the building accessible to fire personnel.
Commissioner Boling reiterated that with the hose pulls, there would not need to be vehicle access for
emergency responders into the parking structure or interior of the court yards.
Oren Hillel replied that is correct.
Commissioner Williams asked how many elevators will be in the parking garage and stairwells.
Oren Hillel answered there will be four (4) elevators total. He did not have answer for stairwells.
Commissioner Williams asked if having only four (4) elevators is adequate due to the size of the project.
Oren Hillel stated that the project has the standard elevator count for the number of units.
Chair Dopp inquired about how big the storage lockers are for residents.
Oren Hillel answered they are 150 sq. ft. per unit.
No comments from the public, Chair Dopp Closed Public Hearing.
Vice Chair Morales asked the applicant to be mindful of managing parking. He mentioned the commercial
property diagonal from the project is known for towing vehicles that park there. As part of the parking
management plan, he suggested the applicant make sure the residents know and understand this. He also
reiterated that staff would require architectural enhancement to the parking structure if it is visible. He
expressed it’s a nice project and thanked applicant for bringing it up to our standards and is in support of the
project.
Commissioner Daniels expressed he is in favor of the project. Meets the requirements of what the City
envisions with the General Plan. Also, with the parking being in a garage, he does not believe there will be
issues with parking. This project will be very good for the community and that neighborhood. It will be an asset
to the city. It’s laid out well with good amenities.
Commissioner Boling acknowledged that we did receive a public comment from Kimberly Newsom, who lives
next to the proposed development, expressing concerns with traffic. His response is this Commission has
taken policy direction from City Council and adoption of the new General Plan. The General Plan looks at how
can we meet the housing needs of our residents currently, as well as the future and how we address state
mandate. We take public comments seriously. As part of the General Plan process, we balanced concerns
from residents their neighborhoods are not significantly altered, changed, or disturbed with the need to build
more housing to respond to state mandates. As a result, there was intentional placement for new housing
along the corridors such as Foothill Blvd. Although, we do receive comments like this, the public should be
aware there is an overwriting intent to leave existing neighborhoods unchanged as best we can because you
moved into that neighborhood for those characteristics. He expressed the plan materials is very well thought
out and fits nicely within the surrounding elements.
Commissioners concur with the change to Conditions of Approval.
Motion by Commissioner Boling, with amendment to Condition of Approval Engineering Special Condition #2;
to adopt Resolution 23-16, Design Review DRC2022-00280 and Minor Exception DRC2023-00120 second by
Commissioner Williams. Motion carried 5-0.
E. Director Announcements - None
F. Commission Announcements - None
G. Adjournment
Motion by Commissioner Boling, second by Commissioner Williams to adjourn the meeting. Hearing no
objections, Chair Dopp adjourned the meeting at 7:47 p.m.
Respectfully submitted,
Elizabeth Thornhill, Executive Assistant
Planning and Economic Development Department
Approved:
HPC/PC MINUTES – August 9, 2023
Page 2 of 2
Draft
DATE:August 23, 2023
TO:Chair and Members of the Planning Commission
FROM:Matt Marquez, Director of Planning and Economic Development
INITIATED BY:Bond Mendez, Assistant Planner
SUBJECT:CONDITIONAL USE PERMIT – LEGION FITNESS - A request to establish a large
indoor fitness and sports facility within an existing 7,977 square foot tenant space within
the Neo-Industrial (NI) Zone, located east of Archibald Avenue and north of 4th Street
within the Archibald Center at 9785 Crescent Center Drive Suite 301; APN: 0210-071-
56. This item is exempt from the requirements of the California Environmental Quality
Act (CEQA) under CEQA Section 15301 – Existing Facilities (Conditional Use Permit
DRC2023-00169).
RECOMMENDATION:
Staff recommends that the Planning Commission approve Conditional Use Permit DRC2023-00169 through the
adoption of the attached Resolution of Approval with Conditions.
BACKGROUND:
The applicant is requesting authorization to operate a large indoor fitness and sports facility (Legion Fitness) in
a tenant suite of 7,977 square feet located at 9785 Crescent Center Drive within the Neo-Industrial (NI) Zone
located at the east side of Archibald Avenue approximately 670 feet south of 6th Street.
The site is located within an existing industrial office complex, Archibald Center, which is surrounded by various
industrial and office uses to the north, east and south, and residential uses to the west across Archibald Avenue.
The multi-tenant building for the proposed use is on the south side of the complex along a private street Crescent
Center Drive. The building for the proposed use sits approximately 530 feet east of Archibald Avenue (see Figure
1). The tenant space is on the east end of the building (see Figure 2 below), and the adjacent tenant space within
the building is currently vacant.
Page 2 of 5
1
9
7
7
Figure 1: Location of subject building within the Archibald Center.
Page 3 of 5
1
9
7
7
Figure 2: Location of Tenant Suite
The existing Land Use, General Plan, and Zoning Designations for the project site and adjacent properties are
as follows:
Table 1 – Land Use Information
Land Use General Plan Zoning
Site Industrial/Office Park Neo Industrial
Employment District Neo Industrial (NI)
North Industrial/Office Park Neo Industrial
Employment District Neo Industrial (NI)
South Industrial Industrial
Employment District Industrial Employment (IE)
East Industrial/Office Park Neo Industrial
Employment District Neo Industrial (NI)
West Single-Family Suburban
Neighborhood Low Medium Residential (M)
PROJECT ANALYSIS:
The applicant proposes to operate a large indoor fitness and sports facility for fitness professionals. The facility
is not a commercial gymnasium for the general public to attend but rather the operations include the use of the
Subject Tenant Suite
Page 4 of 5
1
9
7
7
space for private training sessions between the fitness professionals and their clients. Staff of Legion Fitness will
include a sales associate/operational manager and a front desk associate. The facility staff will be on-site
between the hours of 7:00 am – 8:00 pm daily and the operating access hours are from 4:00 am – 11:30 pm
daily. Access to the facility is provided to the fitness professionals through security software and each person
will have their own scheduled time within the facility. The facility includes a front lobby, office, storage, restrooms
and open floor area for the fitness equipment and training area. The use does not include any operations
outdoors within the industrial/office complex. The applicant does not propose any exterior modifications or
additions to the building or the surrounding site.
Pursuant to Development Code Section 17.32.020.C.8 the City of Rancho Cucamonga defines such uses as
“Indoor fitness and sports facility, large.” This definition includes an establishment predominantly for participant
sports and health activities conducted entirely within an enclosed building or tenant space greater than 2,500
square feet. This use classification also includes studio-style facilities such as dance/ballet, yoga, martial arts,
and fitness studios. The use is permitted within the Neo-Industrial (NI) zone upon issuance of a Conditional Use
Permit (CUP).
Parking: Per table 17.64.050-1 of the Development Code, the parking requirement for this specific use type is
based on a ratio of 5 parking spaces per 1,000 square feet. As the subject tenant space is 7,977 square feet,
this equates to 40 required parking spaces for the proposed use. Staff notes that other existing uses on the
subject parcel include various other uses such as a church (Rancho Christian Center), a manufacturer of
engraved materials, a wholesaler of small electronics, a wholesaler of classroom and office furniture, and a
vacant suite. Required parking for vacant tenant suites was calculated with the assumption that that space will
be tenanted with a warehouse use with an ancillary office as that is how the tenant suite is designed. Notably,
as it related to parking, the parcel where the proposed use is located is part of a larger commercial/industrial
complex (“Archibald Center,” referenced earlier in the report), which is comprised of 15 buildings over 5 parcels
and which provides 675 shared parking spaces. Thus, it is not anticipated that the proposed use will result in
any significant parking impacts.
Staff notes that the existing adjacent use with the highest required parking, Rancho Christian Center (CUP 94-
37), was approved to utilize 120 parking spaces within a 300-foot radius of their facility. The current operating
hours of the church are between 10:00 am – 12:00 pm on Sunday and between 6:30 pm – 8:30 pm on
Wednesday but are permitted to operate only on weekdays after 5:30 pm and weekend days. During these time
frames a majority of the existing businesses are closed. As a result, the parking spaces that are needed to fulfill
the parking requirement of the existing tenants will not be in use and will, therefore, be available for use by the
proposed facility. Therefore, the proposed fitness facility is not expected to cause a conflict with the parking
needs of the other adjacent uses.
CEQA DETERMINATION:
The Planning and Economic Development Department staff has determined that the project is categorically
exempt from the requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). The project qualifies as a
Class 1 exemption under State CEQA Guidelines Section 15301 - Existing Facilities Projects which includes
leasing of existing private structures and facilities.
The General Plan Land Use and Zoning designation for the project site are Neo-Industrial Employment District
and Neo-Industrial zone, respectively, which permits the operation of a large indoor fitness and sports facility of
the proposed size and configuration. The project complies with the City’s development standards and design
guidelines, including setbacks, height, lot coverage, and design requirements. The project site is located within
the City limits and is surrounded by existing industrial development and City infrastructure.
Page 5 of 5
1
9
7
7
CORRESPONDENCE:
This item was advertised as a public hearing with a regular legal advertisement in the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin
newspaper, the property was posted, and notices were mailed to all property owners within a 1,500-foot radius
of the project site on August 8, 2023. To date, no comments have been received regarding the project.
COUNCIL MISSION / VISION / VALUE(S) ADDRESSED:
General Plan Goal LC-1.1 Complete Places states to ensure that a broad range of recreational, commercial,
educational, arts, cultural, and civic amenities are nearby and easily accessible to residents and workers in each
neighborhood and each employment district. The proposed fitness facility will enhance Rancho Cucamonga’s
premier community status by providing indoor recreation that that is not only complementary to the surrounding
land uses but promotes the community value of active and healthy communities. The use will provide additional
employment opportunities for residents and the region and the City will be supporting a small business.
EXHIBITS:
Exhibit A - Project Plans
Exhibit B - Draft Resolution 23-18 for Conditional Use Permit DRC2023-00169
Exhibit C - Conditions of Approval
RESOLUTION NO. 23-18
A RESOLUTION OF THE PLANNING COMMISSION OF THE CITY OF RANCHO
CUCAMONGA, CALIFORNIA, APPROVING CONDITIONAL USE PERMIT DRC2023-00169, A
REQUEST TO ESTABLISH A LARGE INDOOR FITNESS AND SPORTS FACILITY WITHIN
AN EXISTING 7,977 SQUARE FOOT TENANT SPACE WITHIN THE NEO-INDUSTRIAL (NI)
ZONE, LOCATED EAST OF ARCHIBALD AVENUE AND NORTH OF 4TH STREET WITHIN
THE ARCHIBALD CENTER AT 9785 CRESCENT CENTER DRIVE SUITE 301; AND MAKING
FINDINGS IN SUPPORT THEREOF - APN: 0210-071-56.
A.Recitals.
1. The Applicant, Legion Fitness, filed an application for Conditional Use Permit DRC2023-
00169, as described in the title of this Resolution. Hereinafter in this Resolution, the subject
Conditional Use Permit request is referred to as "the application."
2.On the 23rd day of August 2023, the Planning Commission of the City of
Rancho Cucamonga conducted a duly noticed public hearing on said application and concluded
said hearing on that date.
3.All legal prerequisites prior to the adoption of this Resolution have occurred.
B.Resolution.
NOW, THEREFORE, it is hereby found, determined, and resolved by the
Planning Commission of the City of Rancho Cucamonga as follows:
1.This Commission hereby specifically finds that all of the facts set forth in the Recitals,
Part A, of this Resolution are true and correct.
2.Based upon the substantial evidence presented to this Commission during the
above-referenced public hearing on August 23 , 2023, including written and oral staff reports,
together with public testimony, this Commission hereby specifically finds as follows:
a. The project site consists of approximately 19.45 acres of developed land and is
located east of Archibald Avenue between 6th Street and 4th Street; and
b. The existing Land Use, General Plan and Zoning designations for the project site
and adjacent properties are as follows:
Land Use General Plan Zoning
Site Industrial/Office Park Neo Industrial
Employment District Neo Industrial (NI)
North Industrial/Office Park Neo Industrial
Employment District Neo Industrial (NI)
South Industrial Industrial Employment
District Industrial Employment (IE)
East Industrial/Office Park Neo Industrial
Employment District Neo Industrial (NI)
West Single Family Suburban
Neighborhood Low Medium Residential (M)
Exhibit B
PLANNING COMMISSION RESOLUTION NO. 23-18
DRC2023-00169 LEGION FITNESS
August 23, 2023
Page 2
3. Based upon the substantial evidence presented to this Commission during the above-
referenced public hearing and upon the specific findings of facts set forth in paragraphs 1 and 2
above, this Commission hereby finds and concludes as follows:
a. The proposed use is consistent with the general plan designation, Neo-Industrial
Employment (NI) District, which encourages low industrial uses with minimal impact and to support
the growth of creative and new businesses. The site is developed with an existing industrial/office
complex. A large indoor fitness and sports facility will have minimal impact on adjacent uses and
properties and authorizing the use will support the growth of a new business. The proposed used is
consistent with the general plan.
b. The proposed use is consistent with the purposes of the Development Code and
purposes of the applicable zone as well as any applicable specific plans or city regulations and
standards. A large indoor fitness and sports facility is allowed in the Neo-Industrial (NI) Zone upon
the approval of a Conditional Use Permit. The use is consistent with the zoning designation and
development code in that the use does not propose any expansions or modifications which will not
result in any new development and remains consistent with its current development pattern. The
Development Code does not have specific regulations or standards to apply to the operations of a
large indoor fitness and sports facility. The site is not subject to any specific plans.
c. The site is suitable for the type, density, and intensity of the proposed use. The site
is improved with an existing industrial/office complex including access and circulation, parking,
structures, utilities, and landscaping. No changes are proposed to the site except for associated
tenant improvements and signage which may be proposed under a separate permit. The proposed
use is similar in intensity to existing uses in the immediate surrounding area. No additional physical
constraints have been added that may impede the operation of the existing tenants nor the
proposed tenant. Therefore, the project site is well-suited for the proposed use.
d. The design, location, size and operating characteristics of the proposed use would
be compatible with the existing and other permitted uses in the vicinity including transportation and
service facilities. The indoor fitness and sports facility will operate completely within an existing
tenant space and is compatible with adjacent uses in that the operating hours will not conflict with
operating hours of adjacent similar uses and the intensity of the use is not expected to exceed
similar use of the site beyond adjacent similar uses.
e. Granting the permit would not be detrimental to the public interest, health, safety,
convenience, or welfare, or materially injurious to persons, property, or improvements in the vicinity
in which the project is located. The scale and operation of the use is similar to adjacent uses and
will not negatively impact the normal operations of any of these surrounding uses. The proposed
use has been conditioned to meet performance criteria, safety standards, maintenance standards
and all other Municipal Code standards to mitigate any potential impact related to the indoor fitness
and sports facility.
f. The proposed use will not pose an undue burden on city services, including police,
fire, streets, and other public utilities, such that the city is unable to maintain its current level of
service due to the use. The use does not pose any undue burdens in that it will occupy an existing
tenant space which will not require additional service from streets and utilities. The use does not
authorize any operations which may result in additional service requests from Fire or Police that are
not normally associated with similar existing uses.
PLANNING COMMISSION RESOLUTION NO. 23-18
DRC2023-00169 LEGION FITNESS
August 23, 2023
Page 3
4. The Planning and Economic Development Department staff has determined that the
project is categorically exempt from the requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act
(CEQA). The project qualifies as a Class 1 exemption under State CEQA Guidelines Section 15301
- Existing Facilities Projects which includes leasing of existing private structures and facilities. The
Conditional Use Permit will authorize the use of a fitness and sports facility within an existing
structure.
The General Plan Land Use and Zoning designation for the project site are Neo-Industrial
Employment District and Neo-Industrial zone, respectively, which permits the operation of an indoor
fitness and sports facility of the proposed size and configuration. The project complies with the
City’s development standards and design guidelines, including setbacks, height, lot coverage, and
design requirements. The project site is located within the City limits and is surrounded by existing
industrial development and City infrastructure.
The Planning Commission has reviewed the Planning and Economic Development Department’s
determination of exemption, and based on its own independent judgement, concurs in the staff
determination of exemption.
5. Based upon the findings and conclusions set forth in paragraphs 1, 2, 3, and 4 above,
this Commission hereby approves the application subject to each and every condition set forth
below and in the attached standard conditions incorporated herein by this reference.
6. The Secretary to this Commission shall certify to the adoption of this Resolution.
APPROVED AND ADOPTED THIS 23RD DAY OF AUGUST 2023.
PLANNING COMMISSION OF THE CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA
BY:
Bryan Dopp, Chairman
ATTEST:
Matt Marquez, Secretary
I, Matt Marquez, Secretary of the Planning Commission of the City of Rancho Cucamonga, do
hereby certify that the foregoing Resolution was duly and regularly introduced, passed, and adopted
by the Planning Commission of the City of Rancho Cucamonga, at a regular meeting of the
Planning Commission held on the 23rd day of August 2023, by the following vote-to-wit:
AYES: COMMISSIONERS:
NOES: COMMISSIONERS:
ABSENT: COMMISSIONERS:
ABSTAIN: COMMISSIONERS:
Conditions of Approval
Community Development Department
Project #: DRC2023-00169
Project Name: Legion Fitness Training Facility
Location: 9785 CRESCENT CENTER DR 301 - 021007156-0000
Project Type: Conditional Use Permit
ALL OF THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS APPLY TO YOUR PROJECT:
Planning Department
Please be advised of the following Special Conditions
The Conditional Use Permit authorizes a large indoor fitness and sports facility within an existing 7,977
square foot tenant space within the Neo-Industrial (NI) Zone, located east of Archibald Avenue and north
of 4th Street within the Archibald Center at 9785 Crescent Center Drive Suite 301; APN: 0210-071-56.
1.
The Conditional Use Permit authorizes an indoor fitness facility to provide private training. Operating
hours are limited to the hours of 4:30 am – 11:30 pm daily. No outdoor activity is authorized with this
Conditional Use Permit.
2.
Standard Conditions of Approval
The applicant shall sign the Statement of Agreement and Acceptance of Conditions of Approval
provided by the Planning Department. The signed Statement of Agreement and Acceptance of
Conditions of Approval shall be returned to the Planning Department prior to the submittal of
grading/construction plans for plan check, request for a business license, and/or commencement of the
approved activity.
3.
www.CityofRC.us
Printed: 8/3/2023
Exhibit C
Project #: DRC2023-00169
Project Name: Legion Fitness Training Facility
Location: 9785 CRESCENT CENTER DR 301 - 021007156-0000
Project Type: Conditional Use Permit
ALL OF THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS APPLY TO YOUR PROJECT:
Planning Department
Standard Conditions of Approval
The applicant shall indemnify, protect, defend, and hold harmless, the City, and /or any of its officials,
officers, employees, agents, departments, agencies, those City agents serving as independent
contractors in the role of City officials and instrumentalities thereof (collectively “Indemnitees”), from any
and all claims, demands, lawsuits, writs of mandamus, and other actions and proceedings (whether
legal, equitable, declaratory, administrative or adjudicatory in nature ), and alternative dispute resolutions
procedures (including, but not limited to, arbitrations, mediations, and other such procedures )
(collectively “Actions”), brought against the City, and /or any of its officials, officers, employees, agents,
departments, agencies, and instrumentalities thereof, that challenge, attack, or seek to modify, set
aside, void, or annul, the action of, or any permit or approval issued by, the City and /or any of its
officials, officers, employees, agents, departments, agencies, and instrumentalities thereof (including
actions approved by the voters of the City ), for or concerning the project, whether such actions are
brought under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), State Planning and Zoning Law, the
Subdivisions Map Act, Code of Civil Procedure Section 1085 or 1094.5, or any other state, federal, or
local statute, law, ordinance, rule, regulation, or any decision of a competent jurisdiction. This
indemnification provision expressly includes losses, judgments, costs, and expenses (including, without
limitation, attorneys’ fees or court costs) in any manner arising out of or incident to this approval, the
Planning Director ’s actions, the Planning Commission ’s actions, and/or the City Council’s actions,
related entitlements, or the City ’s environmental review thereof. The Applicant shall pay and satisfy any
judgment, award or decree that may be rendered against City or the other Indemnitees in any such suit,
action, or other legal proceeding. It is expressly agreed that the City shall have the right to approve,
which approval will not be unreasonably withheld, the legal counsel providing the City ’s defense, and
that the applicant shall reimburse City for any costs and expenses directly and necessarily incurred by
the City in the course of the defense. City shall promptly notify the applicant of any Action brought and
City shall cooperate with applicant in the defense of the Action. In the event such a legal action is filed
challenging the City ’s determinations herein or the issuance of the approval, the City shall estimate its
expenses for the litigation. The Applicant shall deposit said amount with the City or, at the discretion of
the City, enter into an agreement with the City to pay such expenses as they become due.
4.
Copies of the signed Planning Commission Resolution of Approval or Approval Letter, Conditions of
Approval, and all environmental mitigations shall be included on the plans (full size). The sheet (s) are for
information only to all parties involved in the construction /grading activities and are not required to be
wet sealed/stamped by a licensed Engineer/Architect.
5.
The applicant shall be required to pay California Department of Fish and Wildlife Notice of Exemption
fee in the amount of $50.00. All checks are to be made payable to the Clerk of the Board Supervisors
and submitted to the Planning Commission Secretary prior to public hearing or within 5 days of the date
of project approval.
6.
www.CityofRC.us Page 2 of 4Printed: 8/3/2023
Project #: DRC2023-00169
Project Name: Legion Fitness Training Facility
Location: 9785 CRESCENT CENTER DR 301 - 021007156-0000
Project Type: Conditional Use Permit
ALL OF THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS APPLY TO YOUR PROJECT:
Planning Department
Standard Conditions of Approval
Any modification or intensification of the approved use, including revisions in the operations of the
business including changes to the operating days /hours; change in the location on -site or within the
building of the use /activity that is approved by this Conditional Use Permit; improvements including new
building construction; and /or other modifications /intensification beyond what is specifically approved by
this Conditional Use Permit, shall require the review and approval by the Planning Director prior to
submittal of documents for plan check /occupancy, construction, commencement of the activity, and /or
issuance of a business license. The Planning Director may determine that modifications or
intensifications of use require the submittal of an application to modify this Conditional Use Permit for
review by the City.
7.
Approval of this request shall not waive compliance with all sections of the Development Code, all other
applicable City Ordinances, and applicable Community, Specific Plans and /or Master Plans in effect at
the time of Building Permit issuance.
8.
The site shall be developed and maintained in accordance with the approved plans which include Site
Plans, architectural elevations, exterior materials and colors, landscaping, sign program, and grading
on file in the Planning Department, the conditions contained herein, and the Development Code
regulations.
9.
Occupancy of the facilities shall not commence until such time as all California Building Code and State
Fire Marshal regulations have been complied with. Prior to occupancy, plans shall be submitted to the
Rancho Cucamonga Fire Protection District and the Building and Safety Services Department to show
compliance. The buildings shall be inspected for compliance and final acceptance granted prior to
occupancy.
10.
Prior to any use of the project site or business activity being commenced thereon, all Conditions of
Approval shall be completed to the satisfaction of the Planning Director.
11.
Engineering Services Department
Standard Conditions of Approval
** CD Information Required Prior to Sign-Off for Building Permit
Prior to the issuance of building permits, if valuation is greater or equal to $100,000, a Diversion
Deposit and a related administrative fee shall be paid for the Construction and Demolition Diversion
Program. The deposit is fully refundable if at least 65% of all wastes generated during construction and
demolition are diverted from landfills, and appropriate documentation is provided to the City. Applicant
must identify if they are self -hauling or utilizing Burrtec prior to issuance of a building permit. Proof of
diversion must be submitted to the Environmental Engineering Division within 60 days following the
completion of the construction and / or demolition project.
Contact Marissa Ostos, Environmental Engineering, at (909) 774-4062 for more information.
Instructions and forms are available at the City's website, www .cityofrc.us, under City Hall / Engineering /
Environmental Programs / Construction & Demolition Diversion Program.
1.
www.CityofRC.us Page 3 of 4Printed: 8/3/2023
Project #: DRC2023-00169
Project Name: Legion Fitness Training Facility
Location: 9785 CRESCENT CENTER DR 301 - 021007156-0000
Project Type: Conditional Use Permit
ALL OF THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS APPLY TO YOUR PROJECT:
Engineering Services Department
Fire Prevention / New Construction Unit
Standard Conditions of Approval
A change of use/occupancy analysis is required to be submitted to the Building & Safety Department for
the evaluation of the proposed use in the existing building. Some of the issues that must be addressed
include (but are not limited to): Compliance with seismic requirements, Structural Importance Factor,
ADA accessibility and parking, allowable area ratios, area separation walls, maximum occupant loads,
type of doors, swing of doors, panic hardware, exit signs, emergency illumination, aisle widths, direct
exiting, and designation of a main exit.
1.
Adding walls to create the office expansions shown on the plans will likely require modifications to the
fire sprinkler system. Plans for the modifications to the automatic fire sprinkler system are required to
be submitted separately and issued a separate permit. Submit all plans to the Building Department for
routing to the Fire District.
2.
At least one Automatic External Defibrillator (AED) is required to be installed in accordance with the
California Health & Safety Code Sections 19300 and 104113. Additional AEDs may be required by
these sections of the Health & Safety Code. Compliance with all applicable AED training, notification,
testing, and maintenance provisions is required. See Health & Safety Code Sections 1797.196 and
104113.
Group A assembly building with an occupancy of more than 300.
Group B business building with an occupancy of 200 or more.
Group E educational building with an occupancy of 200 or more.
Group F factory building with an occupancy of 200 or more.
Group I institutional building with an occupancy of 200 or more.
Group M mercantile building with an occupancy of 200 or more.
Group R hotel, motel, dormitory, assisted living facility, and similar residential building.
Membership based health studio, fitness center, cross fit facility, or general exercise facility.
3.
Fire extinguishers are required in accordance with Section 906 of the California Fire Code. Consult with
the Fire Inspector for the correct type, size, and exact installation locations.
4.
A Knox Box key box is required in accordance with Fire District Standard 5-9. Additional boxes may be
required depending on the size of the building, the location of fire protection and life safety system
controls, and the operational needs of the Fire District. The Standard has been uploaded to the
Documents section. If an installed Knox Box is available to this project or business, keys for the
building/suite/unit are required to be provided to the Fire Inspector at the final inspection.
5.
Roof access is required to be in accordance with Fire District Standard 5-6 if the building is 30 feet or
more in height or has parapets that are greater than 30 inches in height. The Standard has been
uploaded to the Documents section.
6.
Exit doors, other than the main entrance, are required to have panic hardware installed before a
Certificate of Occupancy will be approved.
7.
www.CityofRC.us Page 4 of 4Printed: 8/3/2023
Page 1
1
9
9
1
DATE:August 23, 2023
TO:Chairman and Members of the Planning Commission
FROM:Matt Marquez, Director of Planning and Economic Development
SUBJECT:Presentation from Empire Economics Inc. on the City’s Annual Employment and
Housing Trends Study and Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Warehouse and
Distribution Facilities. This item is not a project as defined by the California
Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and is therefore exempt from CEQA review.
RECOMMENDATION:
Staff recommends that the Planning Commission receive a presentation from Dr. Joe Janczyk of Empire
Economics Inc. on the City’s Annual Employment and Housing Trends Study and Analysis of the Benefits and
Costs of Warehouse and Distribution Facilities.
BACKGROUND:
Over the years the City has worked with Empire Economics to develop an annual forecast of Rancho
Cucamonga’s economic and housing growth and conditions. Additionally, supplemental analysis of items such
as high-speed rail was prepared on an as needed basis. Factors impacting the City’s economy and housing
market change regularly, and there is a need to understand the reasons behind these changes and the
impacts they have on the community.
On February 15, 2023, the City Council approved a professional services agreement with Empire Economics
for the main purpose of continuing to prepare these annual studies. The agreement approved by Council
covers a three-year period. This year, Empire was tasked with not only producing an Employment and
Housing Trends Study, but also an analysis of the Costs and Benefits of Warehousing and Distribution
Facilities. The Empire team has completed their work, and on July 19, 2023, presented their findings to the
City Council. They will now be presenting those same findings to the Planning Commission.
ANALYSIS:
As the City continues to grow and evolve, understanding changes to its economy and housing market
remain key for future planning efforts. Listed below are the information categories covered in this year’s
Employment and Housing Trends Study, along with key information or findings for each category:
1. Overview of the Federal Reserve Board’s (FRB) Inflation Policy: The study’s forecasting is based
on the impacts of the FRB goal for inflation of 2%. Near term restrictive policies will/have result in
significantly higher mortgage rates as well as higher unemployment rates. Additionally, stabilization
policies once desired inflation rate is attained will result in lower financial interest rates. Therefore,
although the short-term impacts of federal policies will adversely impact employment as well as the
housing market, the eventual result will generally be lower interest rates that will allow for a return to
normal growth conditions.
Page 2
1
9
9
1
2. Expected Impacts on the Economy/Employment: The City’s economy has recovered from the
impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic. Certain sectors performed better than others as the economy has
evolved and reshaped itself. Among the relatively strong sectors, administrative and support is much
higher than pre-Covid 19 conditions. Policies at the federal level will continue to impact the City’s
economy over the next several years and cause even more restructuring. It is anticipated that the real
estate and finance sectors will be impacted due higher mortgage and interest rates overall. Additionally,
employment growth was roughly 4,100 in 2021 and 5,200 in 2022, which was a new peak level. It is
anticipated that future employment growth between 2023 and 2027 will be roughly 1,200 to 2,200 per
year.
3. Expected Impacts on the Housing Market: Near term policies at the Federal level have significantly
increased mortgage rate and this recent surge has significantly increased mortgage payments. For
example, with a 30-year fixed rate for a mortgage loan of $800,000:
•For a 2.9% mortgage rate, the mortgage interest on the loan would be about $400,000.
•For a mortgage rate of 6.9% (recent peak level), mortgage interest on the loan exceeds
$1,000,000.
While homeowners have recently purchased or refinanced their mortgage loans at historically low rates,
they have become reluctant to purchase another home with a much higher new mortgage rate. For
example, 72% of homebuyers in in the county have a mortgage rate that is 4% or less. Many who are
trying to purchase new homes will likely have a much higher mortgage rate than their existing homes and
will also need to find a buyer for their current home who will be able to afford a higher mortgage rate.
Eventually, when inflation lowers, mortgage rates will decline, and a more normal housing market should
return.
4. Market Conditions for New Residential For-Sale and Apartment Units: The housing stock in Rancho
Cucamonga has recently undergone a significant shift from primarily for-sale homes to multi-family
apartment rentals. With regards to new for-sale homes, there were 17 projects with 1,105 homes in 2020
that were on the marketplace, and now these are all currently closed-out, occupied by homeowners. The
sales rate in the City has almost doubled from 2021 from 308 to 578 homes. Furthermore, although there
are several major projects in the planning process, these have not yet come onto the marketplace. These
include several apartment-style projects which account for over 1,500 additional units. Again, these
projects are in various stages of the development process and are in high demand. Rental rates in the
City continue to increase. From 2015 until now, rents have increased from $1,709 to $2,711 which
represents a level that has been consistently above those for San Bernardino County as a whole.
As discussed earlier in this report, in previous years the City has asked Empire Economics to conduct additional
or supplemental analysis of other items impacting the local economy and/or housing market. This year, staff
requested that they prepare an analysis of the Current and Future State of Warehousing and Distribution.
Listed below are the information categories covered in this analysis, along with key findings for each category:
1. Demand for Warehousing/Distribution Centers in the Inland Empire: Currently 40% of the nation’s
imports from Asia are processed through the ports and then go into the Inland Empire and beyond. The
combination of imports and transportation systems support the robust development of
warehouse/distribution centers in the Inland Empire. Within the Inland Empire, Rancho Cucamonga has
a preferred location due to its proximity to the ports, closer proximity to existing highways and rail lines,
and closer proximity to major population areas. Employment growth for these uses has been robust,
even with advancement in automation. The need for workers in this field is expected to still outpace other
segments until 2028.
Page 3
1
9
9
1
The total square footage for new warehouse/distribution in the Inland Empire has increased from 423
million in 2008 to 630 million in 2022. The average building size is 840,000 with some of the larger
buildings in the 4 million square foot range. Buildings on average are trending toward larger sizes, but
despite fewer worker per square foot, the larger buildings coupled with increased demand require more
workers overall. The demand for this type of space is expected to increase from 630 million square feet
in 2022 to 806 million square feet in 2040.
2. Demand for Warehouse/Distribution Centers in Rancho Cucamonga: The share of
Warehouse/Distribution employment increased from 4.3% in 2010 to a peak level of 6.4% in 2018. Since
then, the share has decreased to about 5.0% during 2020-2022. The decline can be attributed to new
automation being built into new buildings and implemented into older existing ones, as well as a stronger
growth in various non-warehouse/distribution sectors such as healthcare.
The average salaries of the warehouse/distribution workers in the city of $54,826 are slightly below the
average wages for the City as a whole of $56,261. Based upon the average salary level for
warehouse/distribution workers, they would not likely be able to purchase a for-sale home in the city.
While some workers may choose to rent an apartment in the city, most would likely choose to live in
another Inland Empire city that would have lower housing costs.
The near-term warehouse/distribution projects that are currently under construction or in the planning
process have an estimated 4,500,000 square feet. The term absorption utilized in Empire’s report (see
attached) means that the space is fully constructed and is being utilized for operations by a firm. Empire
estimates that absorption will commence in latter 2023, followed by significant levels of absorption in
2024 and 2025, with the balance in 2026. Empire estimated the amount of employment that the projects
in the planning process will generate about 2,833 new jobs. The jobs created by the operation of firms
in warehouse/distribution follows a similar pattern to their absorption. New job creation starts in 2023,
with expected peak levels in 2024 and 2025, followed by the remaining in 2026.
3. Benefits/Cost Analysis of Warehouse/Distribution: The labor market will be fully recovered with over
300,000 new jobs being created in the Inland Empire, which exceeds the jobs lost due to the pandemic,
including significant losses in the warehouse/distribution sector. Both the Inland Empire’s work force and
wage numbers have grown over the last two years at a rate greater than the State of California.
Warehouse space in the Inland Empire has a vacancy rate of 1.4% and is more expensive that similar
space in Orange and San Diego counties. These are all positive factors for the warehouse and
distribution market in the Inland Empire. Alternatively, there is a risk for a reduction in future growth due
to automation. Per the Institute of Spatial Economics, 75% of jobs in the logistics industry could be at
risk. Pollution associated with these uses continues to remain a concern, as do health risks to those who
live in close proximity. Additionally, traffic and noise impacts are not anticipated to lessen.
4. Comparison of the Benefit/Costs for Potential Land Uses: Rancho Cucamonga’s industrial economic
and employee base is well established in the southern portion of the City. This area has characteristics
that provide for support for future warehouse/distribution development, including established industrial
buildings, easy access to freeways, and large parcels that can accommodate large
warehouse/distribution buildings. While there is potential for the development of other land use types,
such as office or retail, their development potential is currently not as favorable as warehouse/industrial
as measured by economic metrics. For example, vacant rates for warehouse/distribution are significantly
lower (less than 2%) that the retail and office sectors (6.5% and 5.3%). Rental rates are also less for
warehouse/distribution in comparison to other land use types. The warehouse/distribution sector will
continue to remain stable, despite the risks associated with this development type (traffic, pollution, etc.),
due the City and Inland Empire’s location, workforce, lower costs, and other factors outlined in Empire’s
reports.
Page 4
1
9
9
1
In conclusion, Federal policies will continue to drive mortgage rates and unemployment. More short-term rate
hikes are expected. The market for existing homes expects to remain sluggish through 2024. Home sales will
also remain low due to current homeowners having historically low mortgage rates. New residential
development activity in the city remains primarily apartments. Lastly, warehouse/distribution remains a primary
growth factor in the area, but with minimal economic benefits. In the City, the potential new
warehouse/distribution development is significant (4 million square feet), but the economic benefits are
minimal.
COUNCIL MISSION / VISION / VALUE(S) ADDRESSED:
This item addresses the City Council’s Core Values of “Intentionally embracing and anticipating the future”, and
“Equitable prosperity for all” by ensuring that Rancho Cucamonga’s vibrant economy ensures prosperity and
opportunities now and in the future.
EXHIBITS:
Exhibit A – Employment and Housing Trends Study
Exhibit B – Analysis of the Costs and Benefits of Warehousing and Distribution Facilities
Exhibit C – Empire Economics July 19, 2023, Presentation to City Council
1CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGARECENT/EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT/HOUSING TRENDS/PATTERNSIMPACTS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE GOAL OF 2% INFLATIONPREPAREDBY EMPIRE ECONOMICS, INC.JOSEPH T. JANCZYK, PH.D.APRIL 17, 2023(JUNE 2023 – UPDATES TO FED POLICIES AND EMPLOYMENT)([KLELW$
TABLE OF CONTENTS PREVIEW: KEY QUESTIONS FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA……….………..............................................3EMPIRICAL FOUNDATION: DATA COMPILED SPECIFICALLY FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA.......4I. OVERVIEW OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD (FRB) GOAL OF 2% INFLATION…………........5II. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY/EMPLOYMENT…………………………………………..9III. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE HOUSING MARKET……………………………………………….…19IV. MARKET CONDITIONS FOR NEW RESIDENTIAL FOR-SALE AND APARTMENT UNITS…......27CREDENTIAL/QUALIFICATIONS OF EMPIRE ECONOMICS…………….……………….……….…….362
PREVIEW: KEY QUESTIONS FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA FED POLICY AND COVID-19 IMPACTS: •HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD TO ATTAIN ITS GOAL OF 2% INFLATION?•HOW WILL THE FED POLICIES IMPACT INTEREST RATES AND UNEMPLOYMENT?•HOW HAS THE COMPOSITION OF THE RANCHO CUCAMONGA ECONOMY CHANGE DUE TO COVID-19? •WHAT ADDITIONAL SHIFTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD POLICIES?HOUSING PAYMENT, INVENTORY AND PRICE OUTLOOK: •HOW HAVE ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS FOR NEW HOMEOWNERS CHANGED FROM WHEN MORTGAGE RATES WERE AT HISTORICALLY LOW LEVELS TO THE CURRENTLY HIGHER RATES?•HOW IS HOUSING INVENTORY IMPACTED BY EXISTING HOMEOWNERS NOT MOVING DUE TO HIGHER RATES? •HOW MUCH MIGHT PRICES NEED TO DECLINE FOR THE MARKET TO RETURN TO NORMAL?LOCAL HOUSING TYPE SHIFT AND ABSORPTION: •THE HOUSING MARKET HAS SHIFTED FROM NEW FOR-SALE PROJECTS TO NEW MULTIFAMILY APARTMENT RENTALS.•HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE THE FORTHCOMING NEW APARTMENT UNITS TO BE ABSORBED IN THE MARKETPLACE?3
EMPIRICAL FOUNDATION: SPECIFIC DATA FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA*PRIMARY DATA COMPILED BY EMPIRE ECONOMICS SPECIFICALLY FOR THE CITY* A. EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL DATA SPECIFICALLY FOR THE CITYEMPLOYMENT BY FIRMS IN CITY AND HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYED IN THE CITYFOR EACH ECONOMIC SECTOR, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, SHARES AND RECENT CHANGESFOR EACH ECONOMIC SECTOR, PAYROLL LEVELS AND RECENT CHANGES B. REAL PROPERTY FILES: SALES OF HOMES IN THE CITY NUMBER OF EXISTING/NEW HOMES SOLD DURING JAN. 2000 THROUGH 2022: ~52,500 CHARACTERISTICS FOR EACH HOME SOLD*PRODUCT TYPE * DATE OF SALE * PRODUCT TYPE * SALES PRICE * LIVING AREA INVENTORY AND PENDING LISTING LEVELS C. MARKET SURVEYS OF ACTIVE RESIDENTIAL FOR-SALES AND APARTMENT PROJECTS IN THE CITYMARKETING STATUS: HOMES CLOSED AND FUTURE SALES AS WELL AS RENTALS* SALES PRICES * INCENTIVES * LIVING AREAS * SPECIAL TAXESD. SITE VISITS FOR FORTHCOMING PROJECTS IN THE CITYCURRENT DEVELOPMENT CONDITION OF THE PROPERTIESSTATUS OF DEVELOPMENT APPROVALS – CITY PLANNING DEPARTMENT 4
I.OVERVIEW OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD (FRB) GOAL OF 2% INFLATIONEMPIRE ECONOMICS (EMPIRE) ANNUAL ECONOMIC AND HOUSING MARKET STUDY FOR FORECASTING RANCHO CUCAMONGA’S EMPLOYMENT AND HOUSING IS BASED UPON THE IMPACTS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD (FRB/FED) GOAL OF 2% INFLATION.TO IDENTIFY AND QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS OF THE FED’S POLICIES, EMPIRE COMPILED PRIMARY DATA SPECIFICALLY FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA (RC) WHICH INCLUDES EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR AS WELL AS RECENT HOUSING SALES ALONG WITH THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MORTGAGES UTILIZED BY THESE HOUSEHOLDS. EMPIRE FORMULATED A MACROECONOMIC MODEL SPECIFICALLY FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA THAT IS UTILIZED TO FORECAST THE IMPACTS OF THE FED’S POLICY OF ATTAINING A 2% INFLATION RATE.*NEAR-TERM FED RESTRICTIVE POLICIES HAVE/WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES AS WELL AS A HIGHERUNEMPLOYMENT RATE.*INTERMEDIATE-TERM FED STABILIZATION POLICIES ONCE THE 2% INFLATION RATE IS ATTAINED WILL RESULT IN LOWER FINANCIALINTEREST RATES.THEREFORE, ALTHOUGH THE SHORT RUN IMPACTS OF THE FED POLICY ADVERSELY IMPACT THE EMPLOYMENT AS WELL AS THE HOUSING MARKET, THE EVENTUAL RETURN TO AN INFLATION RATE OF 2% WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LOWER INTEREST RATES THAT WILL ENABLE THE ECONOMY AND HOUSING MARKET TO RETURN TO NORMAL GROWTH CONDITIONS.5
6•CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)MEASURES THE CHANGE IN THE PRICE OFAFIXED BASKET OF GOODSAND SERVICES.•THE FRB TARGET OF 2.0% INFLATION UTILIZES THE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE PRICE INDEX (PCE-PI)WHICH CAPTURES ACHANGING BASKET OF GOODSAND SERVICES, REFLECTING CONSUMER BEHAVIOR TO PRICE CHANGES.RECENT TRENDS/PATTERNS FOR INFLATION RATES1.9%4.8%5.3%6.7%7.5%7.9%8.5%8.3%8.6%9.1%8.5%8.3%8.2%7.7%7.1%6.5%6.4%6.0%5.0%4.9%4.0%1.9%4.0%4.5%5.7%6.1%6.4%6.8%6.4%6.5%7.0%6.4%6.3%6.3%6.1%5.7%5.3%5.4%5.1%4.2%4.4%3.8%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2021-Q1
2021-Q2
2021-Q3
2021-Q4
2022-Jan.
2022-Feb.
2022-Mar.
2022-Apr.
2022-May
2022-June
2022-July
2022-Aug.
2022-Sept.
2022-Oct.
2022-Nov.
2022-Dec.
2023- Jan.
2023-Feb.
2023-Mar.
2023-Apr.
2023-May.INFLATION INDEX - YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE BY QUARTER AND MONTHLYCOMPARISON OF INFLATION RATESINFLATION HAS BEEN ~4%+ SINCE JANUARY 2022ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY LOWER THAN ITS JUNE PEAKTHE DECREASE IS NOT OCCURRING AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED CPI - INFLATION RATE (MOST FAMILIAR)PCE-PI INFLATION RATE (FED)
7CURRENT FRB MONETARY POLICIES EXPECTED TO REDUCECORE INFLATION TO THE 2% GOAL BY 4THQTR. 2025SOURCE: FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS, JUNE 14, 2023TABLE 1 MEDIAN
8FEDERAL FUNDS RATE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN 2023-4THQTR.UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT ABOUT 4.5% 2024-4TH– 2025-4THQTRSOURCE: FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS, JUNE 14, 2023TABLE 1 MEDIAN BUT NOT A SMOOTH PATH•JEROME POWELL STATED THAT THERE WAS FAVORABLE PROGRESS IN JANUARY 2023•SHORTLY THEREAFTER: UNEXPECTED JOB SURGE (+517,000) & UNEMPLOYMENT 3.4%, A 53 YR. LOW•BUT FOR MARCH 2023, JOB GROWTH WAS LOWER (+236,000) AND UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE SLIGHTLY TO 3.5%0.3%4.4%5.6%4.6%3.4%2.5%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%FEDERAL FUNDS RATE FORECAST SCENARIOS HIGHER FED FUND RATE INCREASES MORTGAGE RATESPROBABLE - FED RATE4.2%3.7%4.1%4.5% 4.5%4.0%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%FEDERAL FUNDS RATES AND UNEMPLOYMENT FORECAST SCENARIOS HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REDUCES HOUSING DEMAND PROBABLE UNEMPLOY %
II. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY/EMPLOYMENTTHE CITY’S ECONOMY HAS RECENTLY RECOVERED FROM THE IMPACTS OF COVID, AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RESTRUCTURING OF THE ECONOMIC SECTORS:AMONG THE RELATIVELY STRONG SECTORS, ADMINISTRATIVE/SUPPORT IS MUCH HIGHER THAN PRE-COVIDAMONG THE RELATIVELY WEAK SECTORS, MANUFACTURING IS MUCH LOWER THAN PRE-COVIDTHE FED’S POLICIES WILL HAVE ANOTHER RESTRUCTURING IMPACT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS, WITH THE SECTORS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST IMPACTED, SUCH AS: REAL ESTATE DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MORTGAGE RATESFINANCE DUE TO HIGHER INTEREST RATES OVERALLACCORDINGLY, BASED UPON THE COMPOSITION OF THE CITY’S ECONOMIC BASE, EMPIRE IDENTIFIES THE DEGREE TO WHICH SPECIFIC SECTORS WILL BE IMPACTED ALONG THEIR IMPACTS ON THE AGGREGATE LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT:POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT BY SECTORSFORECASTS OF AGGREGATE EMPLOYMENT CHANGES, ANNUALLY9
10RECENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY VARIOUS GEOGRAPHIC AREAS •SINCE MARCH 2020, COVID-19 HAS DRAMATICALLYIMPACTED THE ECONOMY/EMPLOYMENT IN UNIQUE WAYS•APRIL 2020: EMPLOYMENTDECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY, BY -18% FOR THE CITY•SINCE MAY 2020, EMPLOYMENT STARTED TO RECOVER,SURPASSING ITS PRE-COVID LEVELS IN NOVEMBER 2021•AS OF MAY 2023, THE CITY ISABOUT +3%ABOVEITS PRE-COVID LEVELS•THE CITY’S RATE OF RECOVERY HAS BEEN GENERALLYBETWEEN RIV-SB (HIGHER END)AND CALIFORNIA(LOWER END)80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%102%104%106%108%110%Jan.-Feb. 2020
20-Apr
20-Jun
20-Aug
20-Oct
20-Dec
21-Feb
21-Apr
21-Jun
21-Aug
21-Oct
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
% TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT VS. PRE-COVID LEVELS (JAN.-FEB. 2020)NONFARM EMPLOYMENT % BY MONTH VS. PRE-COVID (JAN.-FEB 2020) BASELINE: RANCHO CUCAMONGA, CALIFORNIA, AND RIV-SBRancho CucamongaRiverside-San BernardinoCaliforniaEmpire EconomicsPRECIPITOUS DECLINE RECOVERINGRANCHO CUCAMONGA AND RIV-SB NEW HIGHS
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: HISTORICALLY AND RECENTLYUNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY GEOGRAPHIES(MAY 2023)•RANCHO CUCAMONGA HAD AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (3.1%)BELOW THAT OF BOTH SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY (4.3%)AND THE UNITED STATES (3.7%)•THE CITY’S RELATIVELY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REDUCES THE SUPPLY OF ITS AVAILABLE WORKERS 11RANCHO CUCAMONGA MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (JANUARY 2010 – MAY 2023)•CITY’S RATE DECLINED FROM 10% IN 2010 TO 2,6% IN DEC. 2019•COVID-19 CAUSED THE RATE TO RISE TO 12.9% IN MAY 2020•AS THE ECONOMY RECOVERED, THE RATE WAS 2.6% IN MAY 2022•MOST RECENTLY, THE RATE WAS 3.1% IN MAY 202310.1%2.6%12.9%2.6%2.6%3.1%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%13.0%14.0%2010-Jan2010-Jul2011-Jan2011-Jul2012-Jan2012-Jul2013-Jan2013-Jul2014-Jan2014-Jul2015-Jan2015-Jul2016-Jan2016-Jul2017-Jan2017-Jul2018-Jan2018-Jul2019-Jan2019-Jul2020-Jan2020-Jul2021-Jan2021-Jul2022-Jan2022-July2023-JanCITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(JANUARY 2010 - MAY 2023)Dec. 2019Dec. 2022May 2020May 2010May. 2023May 20223.1%4.3%3.7%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%Rancho Cucamonga San Bernardino County United StatesRECENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES - RANCHO CUCAMONGA, SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE UNITED STATES(MAY 2023 - PRELIMINARY)
12Administrative-Support Services, 13.1%Restaurants/Hotels, 12.4%Government, 11.8%Retail Trade, 10.1%Manufacturing, 10.0%Health Care, 8.4%Construction, 7.2%Wholesale Trade, 6.5%Professional Services, 4.7%Transportation/Warehouse, 4.3%Finance & Insurance, 4.1%Real Estate, 2.4%Other Services, 2.4%Educational Services, 1.0%Arts, Entertainment, 0.6%Management Services, 0.6%Information, 0.4%RANCHO CUCAMONGA: SHARES OF EMPLOYMENT BY ECONOMIC SECTORS IN 2022(EMPLOYMENT IN SECTOR / TOTAL EMPLOYMENT)COMPOSITION OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR•25.5% OF JOBS ARE IN TWO LARGEST SECTORS: ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT SERVICES AND RESTAURANT/HOTELS•ANOTHER 31.9% OF JOBS: GOVERNMENT, RETAIL TRADE, AND MANUFACTURING
13RANCHO CUCAMONGA EMPLOYMENT BY SECTORS: COVID RESTRUCTURING IMPACTS(2022 VS. 2019 PRE-COVID)•SECTORS WITH BIGGEST JOB ADDITIONS 2022 VS. 2019:ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT ~ +1,200 AND WHOLESALE TRADE ~ +800 •SECTORS WITH BIGGEST JOB LOSES 2022 VS. 2019: MANUFACTURING ~ -1,400 AND RETAIL TRADE ~ -5001,194807546375113-94-170-395-1,420358298285106-68-75-264-483-2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000CORE SECTORS (+956)Administrative-Support ServicesWholesale TradeRestaurants/HotelsProfessional ServicesInformationTransportation/WarehouseManagement ServicesConstructionManufacturingSUPPORT SECTORS (+156)Real EstateGovernmentHealth CareEducational Services Finance & InsuranceArts, EntertainmentOther Services Retail TradeRANCHO CUCAMONGA: CHANGE IN LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT FROM 2019 TO 2022 BY ECONOMIC SECTOR
14RANCHO CUCAMONGA EMPLOYMENT BY SECTORS – 2022 SALARIES•OVERALL AVERAGE SALARY FOR 2022: $56,261 •HIGHEST PAYING SECTORS: FINANCE AND INSURANCE, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, WHOLESALE TRADE•LOWEST PAYING SECTORS: RESTAURANT/HOTELS, EDUCATIONAL SERVICES, RETAIL, ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT$56,261 $79,995 $26,573 $36,358 $83,350 $54,826 $78,283 $70,547 $58,623 $66,401 $67,296 $35,759 $49,205 $87,959 $41,035 $63,304 $28,787 $55,350 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000Overall - Avg.CORE SECTORSManufacturingRestaurants/HotelsAdministrative-Support ServicesConstructionTransportation/WarehouseWholesale TradeProfessional ServicesManagement ServicesInformationSUPPORT SECTORSGovernment Retail TradeHealth Care Finance & InsuranceOther ServicesReal EstateEducational ServicesArts, EntertainmentRANCHO CUCAMONGA: AVERAGE PAYROLL PER EMPLOYEE BY ECONOMIC SECTORPayroll: 2022
RANCHO CUCAMONGA VS. CALIFORNIA: EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY BY SECTORSOVERALL, RANCHO CUCAMONGA AGGREGATE TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IS ABOVE PRE-COVID-19 PEAK15DEC. 2022 RANCHO CUCAMONGA SECTORSAHEADOF CALIFORNIA•INFORMATION•ADMINISTRATIVE•PROFESSIONAL•EDUCATION •REAL ESTATE•ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE•HEALTHCARE •WHOLESALE TRADE•GOVERNMENT DEC. 2022 RANCHO CUCAMONGA SECTORSBEHIND CALIFORNIA•TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING•RETAIL TRADE•FINANCE / INSURANCE•OTHER SERVICES •CONSTRUCTION•ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, RECREATION •MANUFACTURING •MANAGEMENT36%27%18%16%13%11%10%10%10%7%3%2%-4%-5%-7% -7%-9%-23%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%CALIFORNIA AND RANCHO CUCAMONGA EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY - SECTORSDEC. 2022 EMPLOYMENT LEVEL VS. PRE-COVID (JAN.-FEB. 2020) RANCHO CUCAMONGA (DEC. 2022 vs. JAN.-FEB. 2020)CALIFORNIA (DEC. 2022 vs. JAN.-FEB. 2020)
RANCHO CUCAMONGA - RECENT AND FORECASTED AGGREGATE LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT(2000-2022 RECENT & 2023-2027 FORECAST)•TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY FIRMS LOCATED IN RANCHO CUCAMONGA DECLINED BY SOME -6,400 FROM 2019 TO 2020 •EMPLOYMENT INCREASED BY ~4,100 IN 2021 AND IN 2022 BY ~5,200, EXCEEDING ITS PRE-COVID LEVEL•DURING 2023-2027, EMPLOYMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS SECTORS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISEADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER ~2,800 JOBS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CREATED FROM NEW WAREHOUSE BUILDINGS EMPLOYMENT SURPASSED ITS PRIOR 2018 PEAK LEVEL IN OCTOBER 2022FUTURE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WILL BE GENERATED BY MOST SECTORS, INCLUDING WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION1636,830
41,124
45,503
52,496
56,545
60,591
65,139
64,358
62,974
59,054
58,210
61,188
63,884
66,188
71,253
73,262
75,159
75,383
75,611
74,445
68,040
72,122
77,360
78,943
81,168
83,389
84,992
86,192
020,00040,00060,00080,000100,00020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-Est.2023-F2024-F2025-F2026-F2027-FCITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: RECENT/EXPECTEDLEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT BY FIRMS LOCATED IN THE CITY
17FORECAST OF ANNUAL RANCHO CUCAMONGA EMPLOYMENT –ANNUAL CHANGES •BASED UPONACONSIDERATION OF RECENT/EXPECTED ECONOMIC–EMPLOYMENT TRENDS FOR FIRMS IN THE CITY–EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WAS ~4,100 IN 2021AND ~ 5,200 IN 2022, ATTAINING ANEW PEAK LEVEL–FUTURE GROWTH IN 2023-2027 IS EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO ~1,200-2,200 PER YEAR, INCLUDING ~400-1,000 PER YEAROFADDITIONALWAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION JOBS3831,0251,021403-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,000CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: ANNUAL CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY FIRMS LOCATED IN THE CITY CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT - NORMALCHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT - NEW WAREHOUSE JOBS
18LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT VS. AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING•RANCHO CUCAMONGA’S HOUSEHOLDS WITH JOBS (BLUE LINE) •EXCEED THE NUMBER OF JOBS BY FIRMS IN THE CITY (GREEN LINE)•ABOUT 17,000 (NET) CITY RESIDENTS COMMUTE TO JOBS OUTSIDE THE CITY, TYPICALLY AT HIGHER SALARIESTHAT ENABLE THEM TO AFFORD HOUSING IN THE CITY•FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION WORKERS WITH SALARIES OF ABOUT $55,000/YR.MANY WILL NEED TO SEEK MORE AFFORDABLE HOUSING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. 73,57585,81677,41193,10087,90098,100103,10036,83065,13958,21074,44568,04077,36086,192020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,00020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-Est.2023-F2024-F2025-F2026-F2027-FCITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: EMPLOYMENT BY FIRMS AND HOUSEHOLDSWorkingHouseholdsResiding inRanchoCucamongaFirms -EmployeesLocated inRanchoCucamonga
III. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE HOUSING MARKETNEAR-TERM: RESTRICTIVE FED POLICIES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED MORTGAGE RATES.RECENT SURGES IN MORTGAGE RATES HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED MORTGAGE PAYMENTS FOR PURCHASERS OF EXISTING AND NEW HOMES.FOR EXAMPLE, WITH A 30 YEAR FIXED RATE FOR A MORTGAGE LOAN OF $800,000:FOR A 2.9% MORTGAGE RATE, THE MORTGAGE INTEREST ON THE LOAN WOULD BE ABOUT $400,000.FOR A MORTGAGE RATE OF 6.9% (RECENT PEAK LEVEL), MORTGAGE INTEREST ON THE LOAN EXCEEDS $1,000,000.THE MAJORITY OF US HOMEOWNERS HAVE RECENTLY PURCHASED/REFINANCED THEIR MORTGAGE LOANS AT HISTORICALLY LOW RATES, SO THEY MAY BE RELUCTANT TO PURCHASE ANOTHER HOME WITH A MUCH HIGHER NEW MORTGAGE RATE.72% OF HOMEOWNERS HAVE A MORTGAGE RATE THAT’S 4.0% OR LESS55% OF HOMEOWNERS HAVE A RATE THAT IS 3.5% OR LESS34% HAVE A RATE THAT’S 3.0% OR LESSMOVE UP PURCHASERS FOR HOMES WILL LIKELY HAVE A MUCH HIGHER MORTGAGE RATE THAN THEIR EXISTING HOMES.FURTHERMORE, THEY WILL ALSO NEED TO FIND A BUYER FOR THEIR CURRENT HOME WHO WILL BE ABLE TO AFFORD AHIGHER MORTGAGE RATE.EVENTUALLY WHEN INFLATION RETURNS TO 2%, MORTGAGE RATES DECLINE, NORMAL HOUSING MARKET RETURNS. FINANCIAL MARKETS WILL REACT POSITIVELY TO THE FED BEING ON A SUSTAINED PATH TO SUCCESSFULLY ACCOMPLISH THE 2% INFLATION TARGET.SUCH LOWER INFLATION RATES, IN TURN, SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER MORTGAGE RATES.THE HOUSING MARKET RETURNS TO A NORMAL LEVEL OF SALES AND APPRECIATION.19
20ANNUAL PRICE CHANGE FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA (2000 – 2022)FROM 2000 TO 2022, PRICES HAVE GONE THROUGH FOUR MAJOR PERIODS: •2000-2006: STRONG GROWTH DRIVEN BY CREATIVE FINANCE, PRICES RISING ABOUT 20% PER YEAR •2006-2010: HOUSING BUBBLE CORRECTION WITH PRICES FALLING -10% PER YEAR •2010-2020: STEADY PRICE RISE OF ~5% PER YEAR •2020-2022: COVID-19 IMPACT WITH PRICES RISING BY SOME 18%/YR DUE TO HISTORICALLY LOW MORTGAGE RATES TOTAL PRICE INCREASE BY TIME PERIOD BY TYPE SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED ATTACHED2000-2006: 164% 175%2006-2010: -39% -39%2010-2020: 72% 68%2020-2022: 34% 38%
$234,814
$261,078
$298,204
$364,662
$467,093
$566,348
$620,278
$614,926
$451,042
$383,044
$379,900
$389,151
$398,402
$449,754
$489,667
$513,452
$534,307
$568,142
$606,769
$606,040
$653,712
$767,633
$876,332
$131,493
$140,081
$163,679
$202,156
$256,041
$342,651
$362,206
$347,120
$269,627
$218,865
$220,711
$238,177
$255,642
$281,869
$298,684
$301,124
$319,521
$341,264
$366,727
$363,284
$371,745
$443,082
$511,176
$0$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000$600,000$700,000$800,000$900,000$1,000,0002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022RANCHO CUCAMONGA:SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED AND ATTACHED HOUSING PRICESPRICES - SINGLE FAMILY DETACHEDPRICES - ATTACHED
21SALES OF EXISTING/NEW HOMES IN RANCHO CUCAMONGASINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED AND ATTACHED, 2000-2022•SALES OF EXISTING/NEW SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES DECLINED FROM 1,509 IN 2021 TO 1,068 IN 2022, LOWEST SINCE ATLEAST 2000•WHILE THE SALES OFATTACHED HOMES DECLINED FROM 391 IN 2021 TO 315 IN 2022, THE LOWEST SINCE 2013•THESE DECLINES CAN BEATTRIBUTED TO HIGHER MORTGAGE RATESoEXISTING HOMEOWNERS WANT TO KEEPTHEIR HISTORICALLYLOW MORTGAGE RATESoPURCHASERS OF HOMES FACE HIGHER NEW MORTGAGE RATES2,3462,5523,0153,1042,8592,8632,0151,3381,4941,5691,5771,1921,2281,4701,3611,5821,5191,4781,3381,3201,4271,5091,068390
438
480
577
837
983
629
474
410
535
435
294
269
348
348
340
330
394
321
319
355
391
315
05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022RANCHO CUCAMONGA:SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED AND ATTACHED HOUSING SALES Sales - Single Family DetachedSales - Attached
TRENDS/PATTERNS FOR U.S. MORTGAGE RATES SINCE 2018 •MORTGAGE RATES ARE A SECONDARY DRIVER OF HOUSING DEMAND; EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IS TYPICALLY THE PRIMARY DRIVER•MORTGAGE RATES HAD A PRIOR PEAK OF 4.9% IN NOVEMBER 2018•RATES THEN DECLINED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVEL OF 2.8% IN JANUARY 2021, DUE TO FED POLICIES TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY •RATES REMAINED AT HISTORICALLY LOW LEVELS, BELOW 3.2%, THROUGH DECEMBER 2021 •BUT THEN DUE TO HIGHER INFLATION, MORTGAGE RATES ROSE TO 6.9% IN OCTOBER 2022 AND REMAINED ABOVE 6.0% IN 2023224.9%3.7%3.8%2.8%3.2%2.9%3.2%5.6%6.9%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%January 2018
March 2018
May 2018
July 2018
September 2018
November 2018
January 2019
March 2019
May 2019
July 2019
September 2019
November 2019
January 2020
March 2020
May 2020
July 2020
September 2020
November 2020
January 2021
March 2021
May 2021
July 2021
September 2021
November 2021
January 2022
March 2022
May 2022
July 2022
September 2022
November 2022
January 2023
March 2023
May 2023
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATESUNITED STATES: 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATES(JAN. 2018 - JUNE 2023 BY MONTH)
RANCHO CUCAMONGA –ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS BY MONTH (JAN. 2018 – DEC. 2024 FORECAST) ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS REPRESENT THE SUM OF MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL, MORTGAGE INTEREST AND PROPERTY TAXES •FROM JANUARY 2019 TO DECEMBER 2020HOUSING PAYMENTS WERE ABOUT~$33,000/YR; LOWER RATES OFFSET HIGHER PRICES•DURING 2021HOUSING PAYMENTS ROSE TO~$40,000/YR.:MORTGAGE RATES WERE RELATIVELY STABLE BUT PRICES ROSE SUBSTANTIALLY•THEN IN LATTER 2022, PAYMENTS ROSE TO~$51,000/YR.:PRICES CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND RATES ROSE SIGNIFICALLY TO ABOUT ~6.5%23E. DECEMBER 2024:IF CURRENT HOUSING PRICES DECLINED BY -8% AND MORTGAGE RATES DECLINED TO 4.5% BY DECEMBER 2024, THE PAYMENT WOULD FALL TO $38KA. 2019-2020: LOWER RATES OFFSET HOUSING APPRECIATIONB. 2021: RISING PRICES AND STABLE RATES DROVE PAYMENTS HIGHER. C. EARLY 2022: HIGHER PRICES AND MORTGAGE RATES DROVE PAYMENTS EVEN HIGHERANNUAL HOUSINGPAYMENT LEVELSD. MID-LATER 2022: FALLING PRICES OFFSET BY RISING MORTGAGE RATES AS PAYMENTS GO EVEN HIGHER$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,0001/1/20185/1/20189/1/20181/1/20195/1/20199/1/20191/1/20205/1/20209/1/20201/1/20215/1/20219/1/20211/1/20225/1/20229/1/20221/1/20235/1/20239/1/20231/1/20245/1/20249/1/2024ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENT AMOUNTS (IN JAN. 2023 $)RANCHO CUCAMONGA (JAN. '19 - DEC. '24-F) - ESTIMATED ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENT COMPONENTS (MORTGAGE INTEREST + MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL + PROPERTY TAXES) (IN JAN. 2023 WAGE $ DOLLARS)PROPERTY TAXMORTGAGE-PRINCIPALMORTGAGE-INTERESTMORTGAGE INTEREST RATESMORTGAGE PRINCIPAL (HOUSING PRICE APPRECIATION)PROPERTY TAXES (HOUSING PRICE APPRECIATION)EMPIRE ECONOMICSDEC. 2020NOV.2022~$33K~$51K~$38K+ ~55%……………..A…………….|….B….|..C…|..D..|……..….…......E
24RANCHO CUCAMONGA – SHARE OF ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS BY MONTH (JAN. 2018 – DEC. 2024 F) ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS = MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL + MORTGAGE INTEREST + PROPERTY TAXES FOR THE FIRST YEAR •A. JAN. 2018:MORTGAGE INTEREST PAYMENT SHARE MADE UPABOUT34%OF THE TOTALANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENT•B. JAN. 2018 TO DEC. 2020:MORTGAGE INTEREST PAYMENT SHARE DECLINED TO25%:RATES FELLAND PRINCIPAL SHARE ROSE WITH PRICES•C. DEC. 2020 TO NOV. 2022:MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE SHARE ROSE TOALMOST50%AS MORTGAGE RATES ROSE.•PURCHASERS OF HOMESAT CURRENT RATES HAVE TWICEAS MUCH MORTGAGE INTERESTTHANAT HISTORICALLY LOW RATES0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1/1/20185/1/20189/1/20181/1/20195/1/20199/1/20191/1/20205/1/20209/1/20201/1/20215/1/20219/1/20211/1/20225/1/20229/1/20221/1/20235/1/20239/1/20231/1/20245/1/20249/1/2024ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENT SHARES (ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION)RANCHO CUCAMONGA (JAN. '19 - DEC. '24-F) - ESTIMATED ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENT COMPONENTS (MORTGAGE INTEREST + MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL + PROPERTY TAXES) (ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION)PROPERTY TAXMORTGAGE-PRINCIPALMORTGAGE-INTERESTMORTGAGE INTEREST RATESMORTGAGE PRINCIPAL (HOUSING PRICE APPRECIATION)PROPERTY TAXES (HOUSING PRICE APPRECIATION)EMPIRE ECONOMICS25%52%23%Dec.202049%35%16%Nov.2022Jan.201834%45%20%A B C
RANCHO CUCAMONGA HOUSING SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND PRICE APPRECIATION (JAN. 2018 – DEC. 2022)•A. IN 2018 TO EARLY2020, THE CITY HOUSING INVENTORY(SUPPLY/RED)WAS HIGHER THAN PENDING SALES(DEMAND/GREEN),NORMAL•B. HOWEVER, BEGINNING IN2NDQUARTER OF 2020, HOUSING DEMANDAND SUPPLY STARTED TO CONVERGEAND MET IN 2021•C. ONCE SUPPLYAND DEMAND CURVES STARTED TO CONVERGE, THIS WAS FOLLOWED BYASIGNIFICANT INCREASE INPRICEAPPRECIATION•D. DURING 2022,INVENTORY EXCEEDED PENDING SALES, CLOSER TO NORMAL PATTERNS, BUTINVENTORYSTILLLOW DUE TO HIGH RATES2510%35%47%34%-70%-65%-60%-55%-50%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%01002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002018-03-01
2018-06-01
2018-09-01
2018-12-01
2019-03-01
2019-06-01
2019-09-01
2019-12-01
2020-03-01
2020-06-01
2020-09-01
2020-12-01
2021-03-01
2021-06-01
2021-09-01
2021-12-01
2022-03-01
2022-06-01
2022-09-01
2022-12-01RANCHO CUCAMONGA HOUSING PRICE CHANGE SINCE JAN. 2018RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS AND INVENTORYRANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS AND HOUSING INVENTORY, AND CUMULATIVE HOUSING PRICE CHANGE SINCE JAN. 2018(JANUARY 2018 - DECEMBER 2022)Rancho Cucamonga Housing Price ChangeRancho Cucamonga Housing InventoryRancho Cucamonga Pending Sales2020 Q2: 1st Qtr. of Significant COVID ………..….A……..….|…….B…....|….....C…..…|…...D…..
RANCHO CUCAMONGA – HOUSING INVENTORY (SUPPLY) AND PENDING LISTINGS (DEMAND) (2018 –2022) •A. FOR 2018-2020, THE LEVEL OF FOR-SALE HOMES/INVENTORY WAS HIGHER THAN DEMAND/SALES, NORMAL CONDITIONS•B. BUT IN 2021, DUE TO COVID-19, INVENTORY DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY, UNIQUE CONDITION•C. FOR 2022 THERE WERE DECLINES IN DEMAND (AFFORDABILITY) AND SUPPLY (SLOW SALES) DUE TO HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES.26A B C0100200300400500600RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS AND INVENTORY (2018-2020, 2021 ANNUAL AVERAGE; 2022 AND 2023 BY MONTH)RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS (DEMAND) AND INVENTORY (SUPPLY) BY MONTH, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (2018-20, 2021, 2022, 2023 YTD)2022 DEMAND2023 DEMAND2022 SUPPLY2023 SUPPLYDEMAND 2022;MONTHLYSUPPLY 2022;MONTHLYDEMAND 2023SUPPLY 2023;MONTHLY0100200300400500600RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS AND INVENTORY (2018-2020, 2021 ANNUAL AVERAGE; 2022 AND 2023 BY MONTH)RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS (DEMAND) AND INVENTORY (SUPPLY) BY MONTH, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (2018-20, 2021, 2022, 2023 YTD)2021 DEMAND2021 SUPPLYFOR 2021, DEMAND WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMALBUT SUPPLY WAS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN NORMAL SUPPLY 2021AVG. DEMAND 2021;MONTHLY0100200300400500600RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS AND INVENTORY (2018-2020, 2021 ANNUAL AVERAGE; 2022 AND 2023 BY MONTH)RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS (DEMAND) AND INVENTORY (SUPPLY) BY MONTH, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (2018-20, 2021, 2022, 2023 YTD)2018-2020 DEMAND/AVG2018-2020 SUPPLY/AVGTYPICAL SUPPLY: 2018, 2019, 2020; AVERAGE YEARTYPICAL DEMAND: 2018, 2019, 2020; AVERAGE YEAR
27IV. MARKET CONDITIONS THE NEW RESIDENTIAL FOR-SALE AND APARTMENTS UNITS•THE COMPOSITION OF THE RANCHO CUCAMONGA HOUSING MARKET FOR NEW HOMES AND APARTMENT UNITS HASRECENTLY UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM PRIMARILY FOR-SALE HOMES TO MULTIFAMILY APARTMENTRENTALS.•WITH REGARDS TO NEW FOR-SALE HOMES,THEREWERE17PROJECTSWITH1,105HOMESIN2020THATWEREONTHEMARKETPLACE,AND NOW THESEAREALL CURRENTLYCLOSED-OUT, OCCUPIED BY HOMEOWNERS.•FURTHERMORE, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL MAJOR PROJECTS IN THE PLANNING PROCESS, THESE HAVE NOT YETCOME ONTO THE MARKETPLACE NORAREANY OF THEM EXPECTED TO HAVE MARKET ENTRIES DURING 2023.•WITH REGARDS TO MULTIFAMILY APARTMENTS,THE PLANNED COMMUNITY OF THE RESORT HAD A MAJOR APARTMENTPROJECT COME ONTO THE MARKET IN 2022 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE 867 UNITS.•ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE ANOTHER SIX APARTMENT PROJECTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE 1,803 ADDITIONAL UNITS.THREE OF THESE PROJECTS HAVE ALREADY PULLED BUILDING PERMITS FOR 614 UNITS, AND THE OTHER THREE AREEXPECTED TO COMPLETE THEIR PLANNINGAPPROVALSAND MAY COMMENCE DEVELOPMENT BYTHE END OF 2023.•THIS SECTION FOCUSES UPON THE RANCHO CUCAMONGAMARKET CONDITIONS FOR MULTIFAMILY APARTMENT HOUSINGSECTOR,AND DISCUSSES THEABSORPTION OFTHE CURRENTLYACTIVE AND FORTHCOMING PROJECTS.
28RANCHO CUCAMONGA FOR-SALE HOMES: PRICE PATTERNS AND SALES TRENDS•THE RECENT 2021 SALES RATEALMOST DOUBLED FROM 2020, FROM 308 TO 578 HOMES•THE VALUE RATIO ROSE SUBSTANTIALLY, FROM $300/SQ.FT. IN 2020 TO $428/SQ.FT. IN 2021•THE SINGLE REMAINING PROJECT IN 2022 CLOSED OUT ITS 17 HOMES214104112189197305272316636729530857817$173$142$179$174$206$217$236$241$253$287$290$300$42801002003004005006007002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGANEW RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS: SALES TRENDS AND PRICE PATTERNS Sale Rate - AnnuallyValue Ratio-Avg.
OVERVIEW OF APARTMENT RENTAL RATES SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RANCHO CUCAMONGA29•FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY (SBC) RENTS INCREASED FROM AROUND $1,419 IN EARLY 2015 TO $2,458 RECENTLY.•WHILE FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA RENTS INCREASED FROM $1,709 IN EARLY 2015 TO $2,711 RECENTLY•SO RANCHO CUCAMONGA RENT LEVELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN ABOVE THOSE FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS A WHOLE.$0$250$500$750$1,000$1,250$1,500$1,750$2,000$2,250$2,500$2,750$3,0003/1/15 9/1/15 3/1/16 9/1/16 3/1/17 9/1/17 3/1/18 9/1/18 3/1/19 9/1/19 3/1/20 9/1/20 3/1/21 9/1/21 3/1/22 9/1/22APARTMENT RENT TRENDS RANCHO CUCAMONGA & SAN BERNARDINO COUNTYRancho CucamongaSan Bernardino County
OVERVIEW OF APARTMENT RENTAL APPRECIATION RATES SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RANCHO CUCAMONGA30•THE APARTMENT MARKET FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY (SBC) EXPERIENCED AN APPRECIATION RATE OF ABOUT 5% ANNUALLY FROM 2017 TO SUMMER 2020. •BUT FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA (RC), ALTHOUGH RENTS APPRECIATED AT 5% IN 2017, THE RATE DECLINED TO 0% IN SUMMER 2020.•IN SUMMER 2021 SBC AND RC BOTH EXPERIENCED PEAK APPRECIATION RATES OF ABOUT ~20%.•HOWEVER, SINCE SEPTEMBER 2021, FOR BOTH SBC AND RC, APPRECIATION RECENTLY DECLINED TO LESS THAN 5%. -5%0%5%10%15%20%25%3/1/17 9/1/17 3/1/18 9/1/18 3/1/19 9/1/19 3/1/20 9/1/20 3/1/21 9/1/213/1/22 9/1/22 3/1/23APARTMENT RENT PATTERNS - CHANGES ANNUALLYRANCHO CUCAMONGA & SAN BERNARDINO COUNTYRancho CucamongaSan Bernardino County
31•HOMECOMING IS LOCATED IN A PLANNED COMMUNITY (THE RESORT) WHICH HAS A COPIOUS AMENITY PACKAGE.•RENTS RANGE FROM $2,499 FOR 776 SQ.FT. TO $4,898 FOR 2,349 SQ.FT.•THE OTHER FORTHCOMING APARTMENT PROJECTS ARE NOT IN PLANNED COMMUNITIES SO THEIR RENTS MAY BE LOWER.RENTS FOR A CURRENTLY ACTIVE PROJECT: HOMECOMING AT THE RESORT$2,499$2,808$3,199$3,295$3,799$3,955$4,898$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000776 825 1,046 1,142 1,438 1,680 2,349RANCHO CUCAMONGA NEW ACTIVE APARTMENT PROJECTHOMECOMING AT THE RESORT
32RANCHO CUCAMONGA – NEW APARTMENT PROJECTS APPROXIMATE LOCATIONSABCEFDGPROJECT MAP CODE LOCATIONCURRENTLY ACTIVEHomecoming at the Resort A The ResortUNDER CONSTRUCTIONLa Mirage B NWC of Foothill and East Westbury CWest Side of East Avenue North of FoothillPERMITS - NO CONSTRUCTIONHarvest at Terra Vista ENWC of Foothill Blvd and Milliken AveNEAR-TERMAlta Curvee DSEC of Foothill Blvd and Etiwanda Ave33 North (previously the Watt site)FSEC of Foothill and Haven AvenueHaven and Arrow G SWC Haven and Arrow
RANCHO CUCAMONGA NEW APARTMENT PROJECTSCURRENTLY ACTIVE, UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND NEAR TERM 33•THERE ARE A TOTAL OF SEVEN ACTIVE, UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND NEAR-TERM APARTMENT PROJECTS THAT ENTITLEMENTS FOR 2,670 UNITS, OF THESE, 1,349 HAVE HAD PERMITS ISSUED.8671931316602603112487351759634300001002003004005006007008009001000RANCHO CUCAMONGA NEW APARTMENT PROJECTSCURRENT PROJECT STATUSTOTAL UNITSBUILDING PERMITS
34CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NEW APARTMENT PROJECTSCURRENTLY ACTIVE, UNDER CONSTRUCTION, NEAR TERM & FUTURE(SOURCE: CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA)PROJECT MAP CODE LOCATIONPLANNED UNITSCOMMERCIAL SQ.FT.DescriptionBUILDING PERMITSDEVELOPMENT - PLANNING STATUSCURRENTLY ACTIVEHomecoming at the Resort A The Resort 867 5,000867 Apartments with commercial component735Under Construction. About half of units already constructed.UNDER CONSTRUCTIONLa Mirage B NWC of Foothill and East 193 3,246193 Unit Mixed Use Development with 3,246 square feet of Commercial175 Under ConstructionWestbury CWest Side of East Avenue North of Foothill131 1,500 133 Unit Mixed Use Project 96 Under ConstructionPERMITS - NO CONSTRUCTIONHarvest at Terra Vista ENWC of Foothill Blvd and Milliken Ave660 20,841660-Unit Mixed Use Apartments with 20,841 SF of commercial343Plan Check. Building permits anticipated to be pulled this year.NEAR-TERMAlta Curvee DSEC of Foothill Blvd and Etiwanda Ave260 2,253260-Unit Mixed-Use Apartments. SB330 Prelim App.0 33 North (previously the Watt site)FSEC of Foothill and Haven Avenue311 16,000 302 Unit Mixed Use Development 0Approved. Plan check and construction anticipated this year. Haven and Arrow G SWC Haven and Arrow 248 23750Mixed-use project with 248 units, 23,750 sf ground floor commercial0In Plan Check. Construction anticipated this year.TOTALS 2,670 72,590 1,349
35•MARKET DEMAND IS ESTIMATED BASED UPON THE CITY’S OVERALL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WITH SPECIAL CONSIDERATION FOR NEWLY DEVELOPING WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES WITH ~2,800 NEW JOBS.•ABSORPTION AMONG THE PROJECTS IS PRIORITIZED ACCORDING TO THEIR CURRENT DEVELOPMENT APPROVAL STATUS.•THE PACE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A SYNCHRONIZED MANNER TO MAINTAIN STABLE RENTS.•SHOULD EXCESS UNITS ENTER THE MARKETPLACE, RENTS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED TO MAINTAIN ABSORPTION.ESTIMATED ABSORPTION SCHEDULES FOR NEW APARTMENT PROJECTS 20833630023000100130940002502501600501752753190501001502002503003504004505002022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028NUMBER OF APARTMENT RENTAL'S - ANNUALLYRANCHO CUCAMONGA NEW APARTMENT PROJECTSACTIVE, UNDER CONSTRICTION, PERMITS & FUTUREACTIVEUNDER CONSTRUCTIONPERMITSFUTURE
36Resume: Joseph T. Janczyk, Ph.D.President of Empire EconomicsEducation:University of California, Riverside, Ph.D. in Economics, Completed in 1976Specializations in Urban Economics, Mathematical Modeling and Econometric AnalysisState University of New York at Buffalo, Bachelors, Completed in 1970Dual Majors: Economics and Psychology Prior Employment: California State University, Tenured Economics Professor: 1976-1985Courses Taught: Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, Urban Economics, Regional, Computer Modeling, Econometrics, among othersEmpire Economics:Chairman and President: 1986-Present xPerform Independent Real Estate Consulting Services Primarily for Land Secured FinancingsxWork for Public Entities including Counties, Cities, School Districts and Water Districts xLong-term Relationships with Many Clients, 25+ years xWell Established Relationships with Numerous Professionals in the Municipal Finance Industry xPerformed 500+ Studies on behalf of Public Entities for $15B+ in municipal financingoLand Secured Financings for Planned Communities, Business Parks and Retail Centersfor 400+ CFDs/ADs for $7.5B bondsPrice Point Study – Establish Special Taxes that conform to public entities’ policies Market Absorption Studies - Provide timelines for phasing infrastructureHomeowner Equity Studies and Forecasts of Assessed Values Economic Forecasting Studies: Forecast Employment and Housing DemandxSocioeconomic Studies Orange County Transportation Corridors: 2 studies $2.75B bondsoDesignated as Municipal Bond Issue of the Year for 1999 oRating Agency and Bond Insurer Presentations – Trips to New York CityxMortgage Revenue Bond Issues: Lower Mortgage Rates 50+ studies for $1.7B bondsxOther Municipal Bond Issues: 35+ studies $2B+ bonds; Certificates of Participation, others xForthcoming Bond Issues: 25+ studies for $400M+ future bond salesIndustry Contributions – Regular Speaker/Panelist at Following Events: xState Treasurer, Mr. John Chiang: Council of Economic Advisors: January 2015 – December 2018oBi-annual meetings and published articles in the Treasurer’s Newsletter, IntersectionsxUCLA Municipal Bond Financing Seminars (10+ times, as Featured Speaker) xBond Buyer Conference xLeague of Cities xMunicipal Bond Industry Association xBest Practices for Continuing Disclosure xAppraisal Standards for Land Secured Financing by CDIAC xMeetings with Municipal Bond Funds Dedicated to Public Sector: Certifications Provided in each Study:Empire has not performed any consulting services for the CFD/AD property owners nor the developers/builders, during the past thirty years.xEmpire will not perform any consulting services for the CFD/AD property owners nor the developers/builders, during the next five years.
1CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGATHE CURRENT AND FUTURE STATE OF WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL AND OPPORTUNITY COST IMPACTSPREPAREDBY EMPIRE ECONOMICS, INC.JOSEPH T. JANCZYK, PH.D.APRIL 17, 2023(JUNE 2023 – UPDATES TO RECENT VACANCY RATES AND LEASE RATES)([KLELW%
THE INLAND EMPIRE (IE) HAS A STRATEGIC GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION WITHIN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT HAS RECENTLY ATTRACTED NUMEROUS WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION (W/D) FACILITIES OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS, GAINING EVEN MORE TRACTION IN RECENT YEARS.FURTHERMORE, WITHIN THE IE, RANCHO CUCAMONGA (RC) HAS A STRATEGIC LOCATION AS COMPARED TO EASTERLY CITIES, SINCE RC IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE ENTRY PORTS AS WELL AS THE LA-OC POPULATION CENTERS RESULTING IN HIGHER RENTS..MARKET CONDITIONS FOR W/D SPACE CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST COMAPRED TO HISTORIC LEVELS, WITH RENT AT AN ALL TIME HIGH AND CURRENT VACANCY CLOSE TO AT AN ALL TIME LOW. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG FUTURE DEMAND FOR W/D IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PLEASE NOTE THAT FOR THE W/D FACILITIES IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2023, RELATIVE TO 2022, VACANCIES HAVE INCREASED, AND MARKET RENTS HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED DUE TO SUPPLY/DEMAND GETTING CLOSER TO EQUILIBRIUM, BUT WE ARE STILL AT HISTORIC LOWS. FURTHERMORE, AS SOME CITIES IN THE IE IMPOSE MORATORIUMS/REGULATIONS ON NEW W/D DEVELOPMENTS, THIS DEMAND WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO OTHER NEARBY CITIES SUCH AS RC. HOWEVER, W/D FACILITIES DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT BENEFICIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT SINCE THEY EMPLOY RELATIVELY FEW WORKERS PER ACRE DUE TO THEIR AUTOMATION, HAVE MODERATE PAY LEVELS AND MOST EMPLOYEES SEEK LOWER PRICED HOUSING ELSEWHERE.FURTHER ADVANCES IN AUTOMATION WILL ACCENTUATE THESE TRENDS, PRIMARILY FOR NEW W/D DEVELOPMENTS.WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACTS ON THE CITY’S RESIDENTS, W/D FACILITIES/OPERATIONS HAVE TRUCKS THAT RESULT IN MORE TRAFFIC CONGESTION AND ALSO GENERATE NOISE/AIR POLLUTION THAT INCREASES HEALTH RISKS.POTENTIAL OTHER LAND USES THAT MAY BE DEVELOPED ALONG THE PERIMETER AROUND THE CITY’S CORE EMPLOYMENT CENTER INCLUDE OFFICE, RETAIL AND MULTIFAMILY. HOWEVER, THEIR POTENTIAL IS LIMITED DUE TO THEIR CURRENTLY LESS FAVORABLE MARKET CONDITIONS RELATIVE TO W/D, AS WELL AS SUCH LAND USES UTILIZING SMALLER AND INFILL PARCELS. THEREFORE, CONSIDERING THE STRONG MARKET CONDITIONS FOR W/D FACILITIES IN THE IE ALONG WITH THE CITY HAVING SOME LARGER PARCELS FOR FUTURE W/D FACILITIES, THE CITY MAY DESIRE TO CONSIDER MITIGATING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS OF FUTURE W/D FACILITIES ON THE CITY’S RESIDENTS BY NEGOTIATING WITH DEVELOPERS TO REDUCE THE TYPICAL AMOUNT OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION AND AIR POLLUTION. 2EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: SYNOPSIS AND CONCLUSIONS
OVERVIEW OF THE MARKET ANALYSIS OF WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION IN RANCHO CUCAMONGA3SECTION IDEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION CENTERS IN THE INLAND EMPIRESECTION IIDEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION CENTERS IN RANCHO CUCAMONGA SECTION IIIBENEFIT/COST ANALYSIS OFWAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONWITH THEDIRECT ECONOMIC COMPONENTSAND OTHER NON-ECONOMIC FACTORSSECTION IVCOMPARISON OF THE BENEFIT/COSTSFOR POTENTIAL LAND-USESWITH THEDIRECT ECONOMIC COMPONENTSAND OTHER NON-ECONOMIC FACTORS
FULL STUDYTABLE OF CONTENTS4APPENDIX PAGE(S)MAIN REPORT PAGE(S)KEY RESEARCH WITH SOURCESCONTENTN/A2N/AEXECUTIVE SUMMARY30-313N/AOVERVIEW OF THE MARKET ANALYSIS OF WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION IN RANCHO CUCAMONGAN/A4N/ATABLE OF CONTENTS32-355-12***VOIT MARKET DATA***,PUBLICLY AVAILABLE BUILDING PERMIT AND APN DATA, ***SB SUN 10/13/2022***, PUBLICLY AVAILABLE EMPLOYMENT DATA FROM BLS,***UCR 12.20.2022***, ***PRESS ENTERPRISES 10.20.2021***, ***PRESS ENTERPRISES 9.20.2021***, ***BLOOMBERG 6.14.2020***, ***INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSING IN THE SCAG REGION APRIL 2018***I. DEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION CENTERS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE36-3913-20SAME DATA SOURCES AS ABOVE, ***CITY OF RC ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DECEMBER 2020, ***THE CITY OF RC PLANNING DEPARTMENT***II. DEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION CENTERS RANCHO CUCAMONGA 40-4521-23***BLOOMBERG 8.15.2022***, PUBLICLY AVAILABLE EMPLOYMENT DATA FROM BLS, ***SOUTH COAST AIR QUALITY DISTRICT***, ***LA TIMES 2.5.2023***, REDLANDS DAILY FACTS 2.22.2023***,***CITY OF RC GENERAL PLAN***, ***LOS ANGELES TIMES 12.28.2022***, DELOITTE REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK 2021, APN DATA FROM THE CITY OF RC, VOIT WEBSITE, CBRE WEBSITE, CUSHMAN AND WAKEFIELD WEBSITEIII. BENEFIT/COST ANALYSIS OF WAREHOUSE/ DISTRIBUTIONWITH THE DIRECT ECONOMIC COMPONENTSAND OTHER NON-ECONOMIC FACTORS4624-28IV. COMPARISON OF THE BENEFIT/COSTSFOR POTENTIAL LAND-USESWITH THEDIRECT ECONOMIC COMPONENTSAND OTHER NON-ECONOMIC FACTORS4
SECTION IDEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION CENTERS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE5
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION MARKET IN THE INLAND EMPIRE6• THE LOGISTICS INDUSTRY IS CENTERED AROUND GOODS COMING INTO THE PORTS OF LOS ANGELES (LA) AND LONG BEACH BEFORE BEING DISTRIBUTED TO W/D FACILITIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OR BEING SHIPPED ON RAIL TO OTHER AREAS.• THE MOVEMENT OF THESE GOODS EASTERLY INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS FACILITATED BY: SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENTS IN RAILROAD LINES THE DEVELOPMENT OF AND SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENTS TO FREEWAYS: 10, 60 & 15 • CURRENTLY, 40% OF THE NATION’S IMPORTS FROM ASIA ARE PROCESSED THROUGH THE PORTS AND THEN GO INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND BEYOND. • THE COMBINATION OF IMPORTS AND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM SUPPORT THE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OF WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION CENTERS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AREA:1) COPIOUS SUPPLY OF VACANT PROPERTY, WITH LARGE PARCELS INCLUDING PARCELS DUE TO THE CLOSURES OF KAISER STEEL AND NORTON AFB 2) RELATIVELY LOWER LABOR COSTS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE VS. LA AND OC• WITHIN THE INLAND EMPIRE, RANCHO CUCAMONGA HAS A PREFERRED LOCATION, COMPARED TO CITIES LOCATED EASTERLY:• CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PORTS• CLOSER POXIMITY TO EXISTING HIGHWAYS AND RAIL LINES • CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MAJOR POPULATION AREAS, SUCH AS LA.
GEOGRAPHICAL DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION MARKET IN THE INLAND EMPIRERANCHO CUCAMONGA HAS A STRATEGIC LOCATION VS CITIES LOCATED EASTERLY IN SB-R COUNTIESCLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PORTS/RAIL/HIGHWAYS AND ALSO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LA POPULATION CORE7
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION (W/D) WORKERS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE• DESPITE CHANGES IN WAREHOUSE TECHNOLOGY FROM 1990 TO 2020 THERE ARE TWICE AS MANY WORKERS IN EACH COMPARABLE SPACE DUE TO COMPLEXITY CHANGES. • COVID-19 ACCELERATED THE TREND FOR ADDITIONAL WAREHOUSE SPACE BY 2 YEARS DUE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM E-COMMERCE. • DESPITE AUTOMATION, THE NEED FOR WAREHOUSE WORKERS IS EXPECTED TO OUTPACE ALL OTHER SEGMENTS UNTIL 2028 DUE TO HIGH DEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE SPACE.8-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%025,00050,00075,000100,000125,000150,000175,000200,000225,000250,000275,000300,000SHARE OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENTNUMBER OF EMPLOYEESINLAND EMPIRE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION EMPLOYMENT TRENDS W/D EMPLOYMENTW/D SHARE OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT GROWTH FOR W/D HAS BEEN ROBUST FROM 18,000 IN 2010TO 132,000 IN EARLY 2023THE SHARE OF W/D TO TOTAL EMPLOYMENTHAS INCREASED FROM 1.6% IN 2010 TO 8.0%IN EARLY 2023
RECENT DEVELOPMENT TRENDS FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION CENTERS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE9THE TOTAL SQUARE FOOTAGE FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION IN THE INLAND EMPIRE HAS INCREASED FROM 423M IN 2008TO 630M IN 2022.WHILE THE NUMBER OF BUILDINGS HAS INCREASED BY 245 FROM 2008 TO 2022.THE AVERAGE SQUARE FEET OF A WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE IS ABOUT 840,000 SQ.FT.SOME OF THE BIGGER BUILDINGS ARE IN THE 4M SQUARE FOOTAGE RANGE, SUCH AS THE NEW AMAZON DISTRIBUTION CENTER IN ONTARIO. BUILDINGS ON AVERAGE ARE TRENDING TOWARDS LARGER SIZES.DESPITE FEWER WORKERS PER SQUARE FOOT, THE LARGER BUILDINGS COUPLED WITH INCREASED DEMAND REQUIREMORE WORKERS OVERALL. 423424 424436444457473490512525553577595617630504506508532563590617641640714717732735747749-1000-800-600-400-2000200400600800100001002003004005006007008009001000110012002008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022BUILDING COUNTTOTAL SQAURE FEET (M)INLAND EMPIRE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION MARKET TRENDSNUMBER OF BUILDINGS AND AMOUNT OF SQ.FT.TOTAL WAREHOUSE SFBUILDINGS COUNT
VACANCY RATES FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION MARKET IN THE INLAND EMPIRETHE INDUSTRIAL MARKET OF WHICH THE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION IS PART OF HAS BEEN ROBUST IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. • VACANCY RATE FOR INDUSTRIAL SPACE IN THE INLAND EMPIRE SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2023 TO 2.2% VS. 1.4% IN 2022,BY COMPARISON, THE VACANCY RATE DURING 2008-2009 WAS 10%-12%.• WHILE NEW DELIEVERIES ARE STILL BEING RECEIVED, HIGH INTEREST RATES AND UNCERTAIN DEMAND FOR FURTHER LEVELS OF ECOMMERCE GROWTH RELATIVE TO 2020-2022 IN THE INLAND EMPIRE IS DECREASING FUTURE DEMAND SOMEWHAT. 10
IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGY ON TRANSPORTATION JOBS1. AUTONOMOUS, OR “SELF DRIVING” TRUCKS POSE THE BIGGEST RISK TO TRANSPORTATION WORKERS. 2. REGULATORY HURDLES FOR AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS ARE HIGH AND CURRENTLY REQUIRE A SAFETY DRIVER.3. AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS COULD EITHER INCREASE TRAFFIC IF TRUCKS (24/7) OR DECREASE TRAFFIC PENDING REGULATIONS. 4. POTENTIAL TO MANDATE GREEN TECHNOLOGY. • FUTURE TECHNOLOGY IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE NEED FOR SOME WAREHOUSE/TRANSPORTATION WORKERS BUT NOT NECESSARILY THE NEED FOR SPACE, AS GOODS HAVE TO BE STORED/LOADED/UNLOADED IN A PHYSICAL LOCATION.• IT IS A SIGNIFICANT CAPITAL INVESTMENT TO DEPLOY NEW AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGY IN EXISTING SPACES AS THEY WERE NOT DESIGNED TO ACCOMMODATE RECENT TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES. • ADDITIONALLY, AUTONOMOUS TRUCK TECHNOLOGY WILL LIKELY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRANSPORTATION JOBS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL REDUCTION OF TRUCK WORKERS IF APPROVED AS FULLY AUTONOMOUS. • AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS COULD IMPROVE GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS IF BATTERY POWERED, BUT ALSO ENABLE TRUCKS TO RUN 24/7. 11POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE ON WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRYIMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGY ON WAREHOUSE JOBS1. NEW TECHNOLOGIES ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO WORK INTENSIFICATION.2. NEW TECHNOLOGIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DE-SKILL SOME JOBS.3. NEW TECHNOLOGIES ARE POISED TO TRANSFORM HOW WORKERS ARE MANAGED.4. IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM, NEW TECHNOLOGIES LIKELY WILL NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD JOB LOSS.5. TECHNOLOGY IS LIKELY TO HAVE UNEVEN IMPACTS ACROSS DEMOGRAPHICS AND OCCUPATIONS.TECHNOLOGICAL GAINS —"INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THOSE THAT MAY DE-SKILL AND INTENSIFY WORK—APPEARS TO BE LED BY THE WIDESPREAD DESIRE TO COMPETE WITH AMAZON AND OTHER MAJOR ONLINE RETAILERS”SOURCE: PRIOR REPORT ON IMPACT OF AUTOMATION
FORECAST OF FUTURE DEMAND FOR ADDITIONAL WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE 12EMPIRE FORMULATED A MOST PROBABLE FORECAST FOR FUTURE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT IN THE INLAND EMPIRE:1) EXPECTED DEMAND FOR FUTURE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT IN THE IE, AS MEASURED BY BUILDING SQ.FT. OF FLOOR SPACE SOURCE: SCAG STUDY, ADJUSTED FOR RECENT GROWTH DUE TO COVID (+10%) AND OTHER EXPECTED CONDITIONS. 2.) ADJUSTED FOR FURTHER AUTOMATION/OTHER TECHNOLOGY THAT MAY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF FUTURE WAREHOUSE SPACE REQUIRED.SUCH ENHANCEMENTS ARE LIKELY TO PRIMARILY INCREASE THE VERTICALITY OF THE BUILDINGS.THE DEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE (SQ.FT.) IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE FROM 630M IN 2022 TO 806M IN 2040, BY ABOUT 28%.5255535775956176306556816977387578064004505005506006507007508008502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040TOTAL CURRENT AND FORECASTED SQAURE FEET (M)INLAND EMPIRE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACERECENT TRENDS AND FORECASTINLAND EMPIRE - MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO
SECTION IIDEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION CENTERS IN RANCHO CUCAMONGA 13
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION WORKERS IN RANCHO CUCAMONGA• THE RECENT DECLINE IN THE LEVELS OF W/D EMPLOYMENT CAN BE ATTRIBUTED PRIMARILY TO NEW W/D CENTERS WITH MORE AUTOMATION BEING BUILT AND TECHNOLOGY BEING IMPLEMENTED IN OLDER EXISTING CENTERS.• THE RECENT DECLINE IN THE W/D MARKET SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT CAN ALSO BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE RELATIVELY STRONGER GROWTH OF VARIOUS NON-W/D SECTORS SUCH AS HEALTHCARE.• FINALLY, IT IS WORTHWHILE TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL NEW W/D CENTERS THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE MARKETPLACE IN THE NEAR TERM THAT WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE LEVEL OF W/D EMPLOYMENT.14EMPLOYMENT INCREASED FROM 2,850 IN 2010 TO 4,500 IN 2014EMPLOYMENT REMAINED ABOVE 4,000 THROUGH 2018 THEN EMPLOYMENT DECREASED TO 2,700 IN 2020SINCE THEN, EMPLOYMENT ROSE TO 3,300 IN 2022THE SHARE OF W/D TO TOTAL EMPLOYMENTROSE FROM 4.3% IN 2010 TO A PEAK LEVEL OF 6.4% IN 2018THE SHARE THEN DECLINED TO ABOUT 5.0% DURING 2020-20223,312 2,949 2,728 3,406 4,153 4,258 4,354 4,470 4,505 3,604 3,077 3,031 2,848 4.3%4.1%4.0%4.5%5.6%5.7%5.9%6.2%6.4%5.5%4.8%5.0%4.9%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0% - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,0002022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
SHARE OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENTRANCHO CUCAMONGA WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONEMPLOYMENT TRENDS W/D EMPLOYMENTSHARE OF TOTAL
RANCHO CUCAMONGA: TYPICAL SALARY LEVELS BY ECONOMIC SECTORS.• THE AVERAGE SALARIES OF THE W/D WORKERS IN THE CITY OF $54,826 ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVERAGE WAGES FOR THE CITY AS A WHOLE OF $56,261.• BASED UPON THE AVERAGE SALARY LEVEL FOR W/D WORKERS, THEY WOULD NOT LIKELY BE ABLE TO PURCHASE A FOR-SALE HOME IN THE CITY.• WHILE SOME OF THE W/D WORKERS MAY CHOOSE TO RENT AN APARTMENT IN THE CITY, MOST WOULD LIKELY CHOOSE TO LIVE IN ANOTHER IE CITY THAT WOULD HAVE LOWER HOUSING COSTS.15$26,573 $28,787 $35,759 $36,358 $41,035 $49,205 $54,826 $55,350 $56,261 $58,623 $63,304 $66,401 $67,296 $70,547 $78,283 $79,995 $0.00 $20,000.00 $40,000.00 $60,000.00 $80,000.00 $100,000.00RESTAURANTS/HOTELSEDUCATIONAL SERVICES RETAIL TRADEADMINISTRATIVE-SUPPORT…OTHER SERVICESHEALTH CARETRANSPORTATION/WAREHOUSEARTS, ENTERTAINMENTOVERALLMANAGEMENT SERVICESREAL ESTATEINFORMATIONGOVERNMENTPROFESSIONAL SERVICESWHOLESALE TRADEMANUFACTURING2022 PAYROLLCITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA2022 TYPICAL SALARY LEVELS BY ECONOMIC SECTORS
CURRENT STATE OF WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION MARKET IN RANCHO CUCAMONGA THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RANCHO CUCAMONGA (RC) INDUSTRIAL MARKET ARE NOW DISCUSSED, AND COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE INLAND EMPIRE (IE) AS A WHOLE.WHILE W/D REPRESENTS THE MAJOR COMPONENT OF THE INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY DESCRIPTION, IT ALSO INCLUDES SOME MANUFACTURING AND RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.HOWEVER, SINCE THE SAME INDUSTRIAL STATISTIC IS UTILIZED FOR BOTH THE IE AND RC GEOGRAPHIC AREAS, THEN COMPARISONS BETWEEN THEM ARE MEANINGFUL.THE TOTAL NUMBER OF BUILDINGS AMOUNTS TO 749 FOR RC AND 8,700 FOR THE IE.; RC HAS A SHARE OF 8.6%THE AMOUNT OF SPACE AMOUNTS TO 41,000,000 FOR RC AND 630,000,000 FOR IE; RC HAS A SHARE OF 6.5% THE AMOUNT OF SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION AMOUNTS TO 2,830,654 FOR RC AND 33,036,000 FOR I.E: RC HAS A SHARE OF 8.6%* SO RC HAS A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SHARE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT THE RECENT GROSS ABSORPTION AMOUNTS TO 1,920,000 FOR RC AND 30,550,000 FOR I.E: RC HAS A SHARE OF 6.3%THE VACANCY RATE AMOUNTS TO 1.64% FOR RC AND 1.41% FOR IETHE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SQUARE FOOTAGE AVAILABLE AMOUNTS TO 1,346,000 FOR RC AND 19,900,000 FOR IE., RC HAS A SHARE OF 5.7%THE ASKING LEASE RATE AMOUNTS TO $1.50/SQ.FT. FOR RC AND $1.59/SQ.FT. FOR IETHE LOWER RENTS FOR THE RC BUILDINGS MAY REFLECT THEIR AGE - NOT EASILY ABLE TO ACCOMMODATE NEW TECHNOLOGY16
FORECAST OF NEAR-TERM AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTFOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION PROJECTS17THE RANCHO CUCAMONGA PLANNING DEPARTMENT PROVIDED INFORMATION ON THE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION PROJECTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND ALSO AT VARIOUS STAGES IN THE PLANNING PROCESS.THERE ARE 13 PROJECTS THAT HAVE AN ESTIMATED/EXPECTED TOTAL OF 4,540,512 SQ.FT. OF SPACE.OF THESE, THERE ARE 7 PROJECTS THAT HAVE AROUND 75,000 FT.² OR MORE OF SPACE .THESE PROJECTS REPRESENT 96.6% OF THE TOTAL SQUARE FOOTAGE.•CONSTRUCTION TIMES ESTIMATED BY EMPIRE ECONOMICS (EE) TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION EXPECTED MARKET DEMAND •ACTUAL CONSTRUCTION AND MARKET–ENTRY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE DEVELOPERS/PROPERTY OWNERS.• THE DISTRIBUTION OF THESE PROJECTS BY VARIOUS STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT/PLANNING APPROVALS ARE AS FOLLOWS:UNDER CONSTRUCTION – 2023-2024 2,410,461 SQ.FT.PLAN CHECK – EE ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION: 2024-2025 : 840,634 SQ.FT.ENTITLEMENT REVIEW – EE ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION: 2025-2026 1,289,417 SQ.FT.106,19246,62074,3872,304,269794,0141,215,0302,410,461840,6341,289,4170500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,000UNDER CONSTRUCTION:2023 -2024PLAN CHECK: 2024-2025 ENTITLEMENTS: 2025 -2026TOTAL SQUARE FEETCITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA MAJOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION FORTHCOMING PROJECTS - NEAR TERM BELOW ~75,000 SQ.FT.ABOVE ~75,000 SQ.FT.
APPROXIMATE LOCATIONS OF NEAR-TERM AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTFOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION PROJECTS OVER ~75K SF181.2.3.45.6.7.8.PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION – ESTIMATED 2023-2024 (YELLOW ON MAP)1. 12434 4TH STREET: WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION COMPLEX COMPRISED OF TWO BUILDINGS WITH 2,200,000 SQUARE FEET2. EAST SIDE OF PECAN SOUTH OF ARROW: 104,269 SQUARE FEET OF INDUSTRIAL/WAREHOUSE BUILDINGPROJECTS UNDER PLAN REVIEW – ESTIMATED 2024 2025 (WHITE ON MAP)3. N/O NAPA ST E/O ETIWANDA: TWO WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION BUILDINGS TOTALING 651,000 SQUARE FEET; PROJECT INVOLVES GPA, ZMA, PREZONE, ANNEXATION 4. NWC OF JERSEY BLVD. AND MILLIKEN AVE. : 143,014 SQUARE-FOOT INDUSTRIAL/WAREHOUSEPROJECTS ENTITLEMENTS UNDER REVIEW – ESTIMATED 2025-2026 (RED ON MAP)5. SWC 9TH STREET AND VINEYARD AVENUE: WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION COMPLEX COMPRISED OF 3 BUILDINGS ON VACANT LAND FOR 1,037,467 SQUARE FEET.6. NEC HERMOSA AND 4TH: TWO WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION BUILDINGS TOTALING 91,369 SQUARE-FEET WITHIN THE NEO-INDUSTRIAL (NI) DISTRICT7. 13045 WHITTRAM: NEW SPEC INDUSTRIAL ~86,000 SQUARE FEET OF INDUSTRIAL/WAREHOUSE WITH 3,000 FEET OF OFFICE8. 9910 6TH STREET: TWO INDUSTRIAL/WAREHOUSE BUILDINGS TOTALING 74,387 SF
NEAR-TERM FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA19THE NEAR-TERM W/D PROJECTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION OR IN THE PLANNING PROCESS HAVE AN ESTIMATED 4,500,000 SQ.FT. THE TERM ABSORPTION UTILIZED HEREIN MEANS THAT THE SPACE IS FULLY CONSTRUCTED AND IS BEING UTILIZED FOR OPERATIONS BY A FIRM.EMPIRE ESTIMATES THAT ABSORPTION WILL COMMENCE IN LATTER 2023, FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT LEVELS OF ABSORPTION IN 2024 AND 2025, WITH THE BALANCE IN 2026.EMPIRE ESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF EMPLOYMENT THAT THE PROJECTS IN THE PLANNING PROCESS WILL GENERATE ABOUT 2,833 NEW JOBS.THE JOBS CREATED BY THE OPERATION OF FIRMS IN W/D FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THEIR ABSORPTION.NEW JOB CREATION STARTS IN 2023, WITH AN EXPECTED PEAK LEVELS IN 2024 AND 2025, FOLLOWED BY THE REMAINING IN 2026.602,6151,625,5481,630,447644,7090200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002023 2024 2025 2026BUILDING SQ.FT. ABSORBED RANCHO CUCAMONGA WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONABSORPTION OF NEW BUILDING SPACEBUILDING - SQ.FT.3831,0251,02140302004006008001,0001,2002023 2024 2025 2026NEW EMPLOYMETNRANCHO CUCAMONGA WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONNEW EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYEES
RANCHO CUCAMONGA; FORECAST OF FUTURE DEMAND FOR ADDITIONAL WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION 20EMPIRE FORMULATED A MOST PROBABLE FORECAST FOR FUTURE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA (RC):1. EXPECTED DEMAND FOR FUTURE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT IN THE IE, AS MEASURED BY BUILDING SQ.FT. OF FLOOR SPACE SOURCE: SCAG STUDY, ADJUSTED FOR RECENT GROWTH DUE TO COVID (+10%) AND OTHER EXPECTED CONDITIONS. 2. THE CAPTURE RATE OF THIS DEMAND BY RC, BASED UPON RECENT MARKET SHARES AS WELL AS NEAR-TERM W/D DEVELOPMENT. 3. ADJUSTED FOR HOW FURTHER AUTOMATION /OTHER TECHNOLOGY THAT MAY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF FUTURE WAREHOUSE SPACE REQUIRED.SUCH ENHANCEMENTS ARE LIKELY TO PRIMARILY INCREASE THE VERTICALITY OF THE BUILDINGS.THE DEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE (SQ.FT.) IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE FROM 33M IN 2022 TO 41M IN 2040, BY ABOUT 24%28.929.133.033.333.833.033.635.236.837.839.340.9252729313335373941432017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040TOTAL CURRENT AND FORECASTED SQAURE FEET (M)RANCHO CUCAMONGA WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACERECENT TRENDS AND FORECASTRANCHO CUCAMONGA - MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO5.5%5.3%5.7%5.6%5.5%5.2%5.1%5.2%5.3%5.1%5.2%5.1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040TOTAL CURRENT AND FORECASTED SQAURE FEET (M)RANCHO CUCAMONGA % SHARE OF W/D SPACERC SAHRE OF IE W/D SPACE
SECTION IIIBENEFIT/COST ANALYSIS OFWAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONWITH THE DIRECT ECONOMIC COMPONENTSAND OTHER NON-ECONOMIC FACTORS21
COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONECONOMIC COMPONENTS:• EMPIRE CONSIDERED SEVERAL APPROACHES FOR VALUING LAND USE, AND SELECTED THE MARKET VALUE PER SQ.FT. OF BUILDING SPACE. • THIS WAS APPLIED TO DIFFERENT LAND USES BASED ON THEIR RESPECTIVE CURRENT LEVELS OF RENTS AND VACANCY RATES.22CURRENT PROPERTY VALUE NOI (NET OPERATINGINCOME)=CAP RATE (RATE OF RETURN ON A REAL PROPERTY)=MONTHLY LEASE RATE PSF12(1- VACANCY)XX(1- EXPENSES)XOTHER NON-ECONOMIC COMPONENTS:• THE ECONOMIC COMPONENT DISCUSSED ABOVE DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR OTHER VARIABLES THAT MAY BE OF INTEREST TO THE CITY:¾AVERAGE WAGE BY ECONOMIC SECTORS ¾WAGE GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR THE SECTOR¾WHERE WORKERS IN EACH SECTOR TYPICALLY RESIDE: - WITHIN CITY OR ELSEWHERE, DEPENDS UPON AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING ¾HOW MUCH DOES EACH LAND USE POTENTIALLY BENEFIT THE CITY - MARKET VALUES & PROPERTY TAXES¾SALES TAX ELIGIBLE- DOES THE LAND USE GENERATE SALES TAX ¾IMPACT OF REMOTE WORK: CURRENTLY AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS¾NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF AUTOMATION ON WORKERS¾POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES – BENEFITS OF THIS SPACE UTILIZATION FOR A PARTICULAR LAND USE ¾NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES, TRAFFIC CONGESTION, NOISE AND HEALTH IMPAIRMENTS
PROS AND CONS OF THE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION MARKET IN THE INLAND EMPIRE23PROS• LABOR MARKET IS FULLY RECOVERED WITH 316,000 JOBS BEING CREATED WHICH EXCEEDS THE JOBS LOST DUE TO THE PANDEMIC, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT LOSSES IN THE W/D SECTOR. • FROM FEB’20 TO OCT’22 THE INLAND EMPIRE’S WORK FORCE ROSE BY +3.6% VS. CALIFORNIA DECLINED BY -1.3%• FROM Q1 2021 TO Q1 2022 WAGE GROWTH IN THE INLAND EMPIRE HAS BEEN +4.6% VS. +1.0% FOR CALIFORNIA.• WAGE GROWTH IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WAS +5.2%• WAGE GROWTH IN RIVERSIDE COUNTY WAS +3.9%• INLAND EMPIRE WAREHOUSE SPACE HAS THE LOWEST VACANCY LEVELS OF 1.4%• ASKING RENTS IN RECENT YEARS ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY• W/D SPACE IN THE INLAND EMPIRE IS MORE EXPENSIVE THANSIMILAR SPACE IN ORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY CONS• FUTURE W/D EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RISK - DUE TO AUTOMATION • PER THE INSTITUTE OF SPATIAL ECONOMICS, 75% OF JOBS IN THE LOGISTICS INDUSTRY ARE AT RISK • UCLA ANDERSON EXPECTS LIMITED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN WAREHOUSES/TRANSPORTATION GOING FORWARD • POLLUTION - IS A CONCERN FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE • RESIDENTS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO W/D HAVE HIGHER HEALTH RISKS• TRAFFIC – IT IS ESTIMATED THAT CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA HAS 32,000 TRUCKS A DAY. • NOISE – THERE IS SIGNIFICANT NOISE
SECTION IVCOMPARISON OF THE BENEFITS/COSTSFOR POTENTIAL LAND-USESWITH THEDIRECT ECONOMIC COMPONENTSAND OTHER NON-ECONOMIC FACTORS24
RANCHO CUCAMONGA’S PRIMARY EMPLOYMENT INDUSTRIAL AND WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION’S ECONOMIC BASE IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CITY.FURTHERMORE, THIS AREA HAS CHARACTERISTICS THAT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR FUTURE W/D DEVELOPMENT:* ESTABLISHED INDUSTRIAL AND W/D BUILDINGS * EASY ACCESS TO THE I-10 AND 1-15* LARGE PARCELS THAT CAN ACCOMMODATE W/D CENTERSUNDEVELOPED AS WELLUNDERDEVELOPED PARCELS THAT MAY BE REUTILIZED(OLDER BUILDINGS W/O NEWER TECHNOLOGY)HISTORICALLY, INDUSTRIAL SPACE WAS LOCATED NEXT TO OTHER INDUSTRIAL SPACE.BUT COMMERCIAL SPACE SUCH AS RETAIL AND OFFICE AS WELL AS MEDIUM DENSITY RESIDENTIAL HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A BUFFER ALONG ITS PERIMETER. 25RANCHO CUCAMONGA GEOGRAPHICAL DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS FOR VARIOUS LAND USES
METHODOLOGY UNDERLYING THE COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION AS COMPARED TO ALTERNATIVE LAND USES • EMPIRE HAS COMPILED BOTH QUANTIFIABLE DATA POINTS AND QUALITATIVE INFORMATION/DATA TO COMPARE AND CONTRAST THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND NON-ECONOMIC IMPACTS (EXTERNALITIES) OF VARIOUS LAND USES: RETAIL, OFFICE AND MULTIFAMILY./APARTMENTS.• IN PERFORMING THIS ANALYSIS EMPIRE WAS REQUIRED TO COMPILE/RECONCILE DATA FROM VARIOUS SOURCES INCLUDING ACTUAL SALES VALUES OF DIFFERENT LAND USE PARCELS WITHIN THE IE AND THE CITY OF RC, AND THEN FORMULATE AN ECONOMIC MODEL UTILIZING VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS.• EMPIRE STRONGLY RECOMMENDS THAT THE CONCLUSIONS SET-FORTH IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE BE UTILIZED AS GENERALIZED GUIDELINES FOR CONSIDERING POLICIES; AND CAUTIONS THAT EACH PROPOSED PROJECT BE EVALUATED TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION ITS SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS.PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING TABLE AND GRAPHS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. 26
COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION AND OTHER POTENTIAL LAND-USES27DESCRIPTION OF NUMERIC ESTIMATESWAREHOUSE / DISTRIBUTION RETAIL OFFICE MULTIFAMILYVACANCY RATE1.1% 6.5% 5.3% 4.8%MARKET RENT PSF $1.51 $2.20 $1.95 $2.18 NET OPERATING INCOME (NOI) $87,210 $71,585 $270,168 $888,216 CAP RATE - USED TO ESTIMATE VALUE 4.5% 6.5% 6.5% 5.8%IMPLIED MARKET VALUE $1,938,004 $1,101,310 $4,156,431 $15,314,063 SALE VALUE PRICE PER SQ. FT. OF LAND $268 $175 $182 $225 BUILDING COVERAGE 41% 38% 72% 125%ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX PER ACRE $32,946 $18,722 $70,659 $260,339 FUTURE DEMAND HIGH MODERATE MINIMAL HIGHTOTAL WORKERS/RESIDENTS PER SECTOR 8,271 17,177 31,239 61,769WORKERS/RESIDENTS PER ACRE 14 87 275 100AVERAGE WAGE - EMPLOYEES $54,826 $30,692 $52,495 $74,218 WAGE GROWTH POTENTIAL MINIMAL MINIMAL MODERATE MODERATEPRIMARILY CITY RESIDENTS; MINIMAL MINIMAL MODERATE YESSALES TAX ELIGIBLE NO YES YES YESIMPACTED BY REMOTE WORK NO NO YES NOIMPACTED NEGATIVELY BY AUTOMATION YES SOME YES NOPOSITIVE EXTERNALITIES STABLE SHOPPING HUB BRINGS IN WORKERS RESIDENT BASENEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES/RISK TRAFFIC ECONOMIC CYCLE REMOTE WORK RENTERSPOLLUTIONOPPORTUNITY COSTNOTES HIGH DEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE DUE TO PRIME INLAND EMPIRE LOCATION.CAN SERVICE DAILY AND REGIONAL NEEDS. VACANCY AND RENT DEPENDENT ON NEEDS.SUSCEPTIBLE TO REMOTE WORK, LOW VACANCY IN RC DRIVEN BY HEALTHCARE DEMAND
• ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE LAND USES, SUCH AS OFFICE, RETAIL AND MULTIFAMILY, THEIR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL, AS MEASURED BY ECONOMIC METRICS, ARE CURRENTLY NOT AS FAVORABLE28OVERVIEW OF CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONAND ALTERNATIVE POTENTIAL LAND USES: RETAIL, OFFICE AND MULTIFAMILY/APARTMENTS $1.51$2.20$1.95$2.18$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50W / D RETAIL OFFICE MULTIFAMILYRENTS PER SQ.FT. - MONTHLYRECENT RENTS$54,826$30,692$52,495$74,218$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000$70,000$80,000$90,000W / D RETAIL OFFICE MULTIFAMILYEMPLOYEE SALARIES - ANNUALLYEMPLOYEE SALARIES 1487275100050100150200250300W / D RETAIL OFFICE MULTIFAMILYEMPLOYEES/RESIDENTS PER ACREEMPLOYEES/RESIDENTS - PER ACRE1.1%6.5%5.3%4.8%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%W / D RETAIL OFFICE MULTIFAMILYVACANCY RATERECENT VACANCY RATES
THE CURRENT AND FUTURE STATE OF WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL AND OPPORTUNITY COST IMPACTSAPPENDIX29EMPIRE ECONOMICS LEVERAGED A VARIETY OF MARKET DATA SOURCES (VOIT, CBRE, KIDDER MATHEWS, ETC), UNIVERSITY/GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS (UCR/SCAG/EPA), CONSULTANT RESEARCH REPORTS (DELOITTE) AND VARIOUS PRESS ARTICLES (LA TIMES/REDANDS DAILY, ETC.) WITH REPORTING ON CRITICAL ITEMS TO NAME A FEW.
• THE SCOPE OF RESEARCH FOR THIS TOPIC COULD BE EXTREMELY BROAD, SO EMPIRE NARROWED IT DOWN TO THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS:¾A FOCUS ON W/D WORKERS AND SPACE BASED ON APN DATA FROM THE CITY.¾ONLY LOOKING AT THE HISTORY OF W/D SPACE, TYPICALLY KNOWN AS INDUSTRIAL SPACE ¾EMPIRE ACKNOWLEDGES THERE ARE MANY OTHER CITIES WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF W/D SPACE¾REMAIN OBJECTIVE IN REPORTING POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE W/D SPACE• THE CONCEPT OF OPPORTUNITY COST FOR POTENTIAL LAND UTILIZATION FROM A QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE PERSPECTIVE IS IMPORTANT FOR THE CITY TO UNDERSTAND WHAT ELSE CAN BE ON THE LAND WITH POTENTIAL COSTS/BENEFITS. ¾TRANSPORTATION/INDUSTRIAL SPACE – CURRENT USE¾RETAIL – A VARIETY OF CENTER TYPES ¾OFFICE – EMPIRE WAS ABLE TO UTILIZE SOME RESEARCH PERFORMED FOR A PRIOR STUDY ¾MULTIFAMILY – EMPIRE FOCUSED ON MULTIFAMILY AS MORE LIKELY TO BE INFILL VS. SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL• EMPIRE USED THE RESEARCH TO NARROW DOWN TRENDS AND POTENTIAL OPTIONS TO SHAPE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CITY.¾EMPIRE FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL ZONING AND ECONOMIC INCENTIVES.¾THE OTHER TREND FROM THE RESEARCH WAS CITIES INSTITUTING “MORATORIUMS” OR “BANS ON NEW INDUSTRIAL SPACE”. ¾HOWEVER, THESE BANS ARE VERY COMPLEX IN THEIR NATURE AND DO APPLY UNIFORMLY TO ALL PROJECTS AND ARE REALLY A NEGOTIATING TACTIC/STRATEGY TO SHAPE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT APPENDIX: SCOPE OF RESEARCH30
APPENDIX SCOPE OF RESEARCH: KEY SOURCE LIST31https://www.sbsun.com/2022/10/13/warehouses-pose-a-dilemma-for-the-inland-empire/amp/https://www.kcet.org/the-empire-of-logistics-goods-movement-in-southern-californiahttps://www.pressenterprise.com/2021/10/20/what-is-the-future-of-warehouses-in-the-inland-empire/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-14/california-launches-new-war-on-warehouse-pollutionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-15/los-angeles-warehousing-mecca-halts-expansion-just-as-needs-soarhttps://news.ucr.edu/articles/2022/12/21/pandemic-left-behind-inland-empire-economy-flourished-2022https://news.ucr.edu/articles/2022/09/22/inland-empire-business-activity-growth-contrasts-national-declinehttps://www.lung.org/research/sota/key-findings/most-polluted-placeshttp://www.laalmanac.com/environment/ev01a.phphttps://www.epa.gov/air-trends/air-quality-cities-and-countieshttps://www.pressenterprise.com/2021/09/29/inland-empire-is-warehouse-central-but-how-did-it-happen/https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-02-05/warehouses-big-rigs-fill-inland-empire-streetshttps://scag.ca.gov/sites/main/files/file-attachments/task4_understandingfacilityoperations.pdfhttps://www.cityofrc.us/sites/default/files/2021-01/PlanRC_ExistingConditionsReport_LandUse_December2020_0.pdfhttps://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-02-05/warehouses-big-rigs-fill-inland-empire-streetshttps://www.redlandsdailyfacts.com/2023/02/22/ban-on-new-warehouses-considered-by-redlands-city-council/https://www.redlandsdailyfacts.com/2023/02/22/ban-on-new-warehouses-considered-by-redlands-city-council/https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/financial-services/commercial-real-estate-outlook-2021.html
APPENDIX PART I.) HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION MARKET IN THE INLAND EMPIRE32
APPENDIX PART I.) LARGEST EMPLOYERS IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY 33Sourcehttps://news.ucr.edu/articles/2022/12/21/pandemic-left-behind-inland-empire-economy-flourished-2022
APPENDIX PART I.) IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON WAREHOUSING FROM DATADEX341. THE NEED TO KEEP MORE INVENTORY ON HAND EXPANDED THE USE OF SAFETY STOCK.2. PANDEMIC-FORCED LOCKDOWNS SPURRING THE ACCELERATION OF ONLINE SHOPPING, E-COMMERCE AND LAST MILE DELIVERY AND DRAMATICALLY IMPACTED WAREHOUSE OPERATIONSNO, IT IS NOT YOUR IMAGINATION. THE USE OF ONLINE SHOPPING HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED. IN FACT, FORBES ESTIMATES THAT COVID ACCELERATED THE GROWTH OF E-COMMERCE APPROXIMATELY 4 TO 6 YEARS. BECAUSE MANY WAREHOUSES WERE ONLY HANDLING GOODS BY THE PALLET, IT HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND ADDED COST TO ADOPT THE NEEDED PROCESSES AND TECHNOLOGY TO BE ABLE TO SERVICE PICK AND PACK OPERATIONS NEEDED FOR D2C E-COMMERCE ORDER FULFILLMENT.3. INVENTORY VISIBILITY TAKES CENTER STAGE4. LABOR SHORTAGES AND SOCIAL DISTANCING REQUIREMENTS BOLSTERED ADOPTION OF TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS5. ESCALATION IN NEED FOR MORE COLD STORAGE WAREHOUSESCONCLUSIONGLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS CERTAINLY TOOK A HIT DURING THE COVID-9 PANDEMIC. THE IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS WAS WIDESPREAD, AFFECTING ISSUES FROM HUMAN CAPITAL TO DELIVERY CHARGES. BECAUSE THE WORLD IS STILL EARLY IN THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF SUPPLY CHAINS AND DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS. THE LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN CHALLENGES WERE HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE, ESPECIALLY AS SOME DISTRIBUTION CENTERS AND WAREHOUSES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ADOPT TECHNOLOGIES AND STILL LARGELY OPERATE MANUALLY.THE IMPACT ON WAREHOUSES IS STILL BEING FELT TODAY AND IS HAVING A TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN INDUSTRY. WHETHER IT STARTED WITH THE DISRUPTION IN THE SUPPLY CHAINS OF PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT OR WAS RELATED TO THE E-COMMERCE BOOM, JOB LOSS, CHANGES IN FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION, CHANGING PUBLIC HEALTH ADVISORIES FOR BUSINESSES OR SOME OTHER REASON, MUCH OF THE CHANGE IS HERE TO STAY.CONSUMERS MUST BE ABLE TO COUNT ON SUPPLY CHAINS, NOT ONLY FOR ESSENTIAL ITEMS LIKE FOODS, MEDICINE, PERSONAL PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT, AND HAND SANITIZER, BUT FOR EVERYDAY GOODS THAT BRING THEM COMFORT, SATISFACTION AND EVEN JOY.LOOKING AT THIS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A GLASS HALF FULL, PERHAPS THE IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS WAS POSITIVE IN THAT IT DEMONSTRATED THAT COMPLEX PROBLEMS COULD ARISE AND BE SOLVED, AT TIMES BY CLOSE COLLABORATION AND PROBLEM SOLVING AS WELL AS BY THE ADOPTION OF NEW STRATEGIES AND INNOVATIVE EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES. FROM ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO MOBILE ROBOTS, MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT, AND SOPHISTICATED MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS, SUPPLY CHAINS, WAREHOUSES AND DISTRIBUTION CENTERS CAN BE MADE MORE RESILIENT, DEFENSIBLE AGAINST CYBERSECURITY ATTACKS, AND EFFICIENT WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES. FOR INSTANCE, MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT AND MOBILE ROBOTS CAN COMPENSATE FOR DIMINISHING HUMAN CAPITAL WHEN WORKERS MUST BE SIDELINED DUE TO ILLNESS, POTENTIALLY SAVING LIVES. .Sourcehttps://www.datexcorp.com/impact-of-covid-19-on-warehousing-and-the-supply-chain/
APPENDIX PART I.) IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON WAREHOUSING FROM DATADEX351. CONTINUED SOCIAL DISTANCING2. KEEPING MORE INVENTORY ON HAND 3. INCREASED USE OF WAREHOUSE AUTOMATION4. RESHORING/NEARSHORING MANUFACTURING5. SCALABLE PROCESSES & PICKING STRATEGIES6. MORE WORK-IN-PROCESS (WIP) INVENTORY7. INCREASED WAREHOUSE CAPACITY8. SMALLER DECENTRALIZED WAREHOUSE LOCATIONS9. GREATER RELIANCE ON 3PL DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS10. SHORTER WAREHOUSE/3PL CONTRACTS11. ACCELERATED GROWTH OF E-COMMERCEWHILE THE COVID PANDEMIC DIDN’T START THE E-COMMERCE BOOM, IT IS CERTAINLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT SURGE IN DEMAND. COVID CATAPULTED E-COMMERCE AHEAD 2 YEARS IN ONLY 10 MONTHS; REALIZING PROJECTED 2022 RESULTS IN 2020 FOR A TOTAL OF $4.28 TRILLION IN GLOBAL E-COMMERCE SALES IN 2020. WAREHOUSE AND DISTRIBUTION CENTERS AREN’T NEW TO E-COMMERCE, BUT THE RAPID INCREASE IN DEMAND HAS MOST STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP.12. EMBRACING OMNI-CHANNEL DISTRIBUTION13. MICRO-DISTRIBUTION FROM STOREAS CUSTOMERS DEMAND FASTER SHIPMENTS, RETAIL BUSINESSES WILL LOOK TO LEVERAGE EXISTING BRICK AND MORTAR LOCATIONS AS MINI-DISTRIBUTION CENTERS. THEY WILL AIM TO BUILD A LARGER DISTRIBUTION NETWORK WITHOUT A LARGE INVESTMENT. EQUIPPING EXISTING RETAIL STORE LOCATIONS WITH DISTRIBUTION CAPABILITIES CAN BE MORE COST EFFECTIVE THAN PARTNERING.14. NEW IMPORTANCE ON INVENTORY VISIBILITY15. INCREASE IN COLD STORAGEIN SUMMARYAS WE SETTLE INTO OUR POST-COVID LIVES THE ONLY THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT NOTHING IS CERTAIN. COMPANIES ARE CREATING BACK UP PLANS FOR THEIR BACK UP PLANS. WITH AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURE, WAREHOUSE AND DISTRIBUTION CENTERS WILL LOOK TO BE AS ADAPTABLE AND FLEXIBLE AS POSSIBLE. THEIR MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON HOW TO BEST UTILIZE SPACE AND EFFICIENTLY MANAGE THEIR BIGGEST EXPENSE - LABOR.Sourcehttps://us.blog.kardex-remstar.com/15-ways-covid-changing-warehousing
36APPENDIX PART II.) RECENT SALES COMPS FOR RC METHODOLOGYTYPE YEAR SQUARE FEETPRICE PSF CITYINDUSTRIAL 2022 380,650 $127,000,000 $334 FONTANAINDUSTRIAL 2022 1,057,419 $470,000,000 $444 EASTVALEINDUSTRIAL 2021 175,291 $48,811,000 $278 RANCHO CUCAMONGAINDUSTRIAL 2021 102,516 $24,470,000 $239 RANCHO CUCAMONGAINDUSTRIAL 2021 310,550 $69,757,990 $225 FONTANAINDUSTRIAL 2021 297,161 $54,000,000 $182 FONTANAINDUSTRIAL 2020 406,800 $61,650,000 $152 FONTANAINDUSTRIAL 2020 203,451 $34,275,000 $168 FONTANAINDUSTRIAL 2020 98,188 $16,968,404 $173 MONTCLAIRINDUSTRIAL 2019 376,910 $58,044,500 $154 FONTANAINDUSTRIAL 2019 329,000 $56,789,000 $173 RANCHO CUCAMONGAINDUSTRIAL 2019 138,081 $21,500,000 $156 RANCHO CUCAMONGAINDUSTRIAL 2019 1,498,059 $213,550,000 $143 FONTANARETAIL 2022 135,180 $23,750,000 $176 MONTCLAIRTYPE YEAR SQUARE FEETPRICE PSF CITYMULTIFAMILY 2022 736 $310,000,000 $421,196 ONTARIOMULTIFAMILY 2022 270 $133,650,000 $495,000 RANCHO CUCAMONGAMULTIFAMILY 2022 272 $123,000,000 $452,206 RANCHO CUCAMONGAMULTIFAMILY 2022 232 $82,000,000 $353,448 RANCHO CUCAMONGAMULTIFAMILY 2022 142 $45,606,000 $321,169 ONTARIOMULTIFAMILY 2021 521 $226,560,000 $434,856 RANCHO CUCAMONGAMULTIFAMILY 2021 319 $137,600,000 $431,348 RANCHO CUCAMONGAMULTIFAMILY 2021 521 $227,000,000 $435,701 RANCHO CUCAMONGAMULTIFAMILY 2021 384 $76,000,000 $197,917 MORENO VALLEYRECENT MULTIFAMILY SALES COMPS FOR RC AND NEARBY CITIESRECENT INDUSTRIAL AND RETAIL SALES COMPS FOR RC AND NEARBY CITIES• EMPIRE ANALYZED RECENT SALES FOR LARGER INDUSTRIAL, OFFICE, RETAIL AND MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES WITHIN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND A SUBSET OF CITIES WITHIN RC, FONTANA, ONTARIO AND RIALTO TO COME UP WITH A PSF VALUE • PLEASE NOTE THAT EMPIRE FOCUSED ON THE SALES DATA FOR INDUSTRIAL FROM 2019-2022 AND FOR THE OTHER ASSET CLASSES 2021-2022• THE PRICE OF INDUSTRIAL PSF HAS RISEN SINCE 2019
APPENDIX PART II.) WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION – WHOLESALE – MANUFACTURING SPACE PER WORKER IN THE RC37THE CITY OF RC HAS SEEN A LARGE AMOUNT OF GROWTH IN ITS WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE BUT NOT AN EQUAL INCREASE IN EMPLOYMENT. • BASED ON APN DATA, EMPIRE ESTIMATES THAT THERE WAS 26.4M SQUARE FEET OF WAREHOUSE DISTRIBUTION SPACE IN 2010 AND CLOSE TO 33.8M SQUARE FEET IN 2022 OR A PERCENT GROWTH OF SOME 28%• THE AMOUNT OF WORKERS INCREASED FROM 11,170 WORKERS TO 15,092 WORKERS WITH THERE BEING A QUICKY RECOVERY FROM OVID FOR A % GROWTH OF SOME 35%• PLEASE NOTE THAT THE AMOUNT OF WORKERS PER SPACE WAS DECREASING FROM 2014 TO 2019 THEN INCREASED DUE TO COVID-19 AND IS SLIGHTLY DECREASING, REFLECTING VARIOUS TECHNOLOGY NEEDS AND SPACE DESIGNS
APPENDIX PART II.) LOCATION OF VACANT INDUSTRIAL SPACE FOR THE RANCHO CUCAMONGA MARKET THE OVERALL VACANCY RATE FOR THE INDUSTRIAL OR WAREHOUSE/TRANSPORTATION MARKET PER VARIOUS SOURCES IS BETWEEN 1.1% (CBRE) TO 1.61% (VOIT).• PLEASE NOTE THAT THE VACANCY RATE FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE HAS COME DONE FROM 2008 AFTER “THE GREAT RECESSION” FROM LEVELS OF CLOSE TO 12% TO HISTORIC LOWS TODAY.• CURRENTLY, DUE TO RANCHO CUCAMONGA’S PRIME LOCATION OFF THE 1-15 AND BY THE 1-10, SPACE IS AT A PREMIUM WITH LITTLE VACANCY..• I-15 IS A MAJOR WEST TO EAST CORRIDOR THAT GOES NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US.• THE I-10 IS A MAJOR WEST TO EAST CORRIDOR AS WELL..38-------------------------THE VACANCIES ARE LOCATED INTERSPERSED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CITY AND ARE GENERALLY SMALLER SQUARE FOOTAGE SPACES.
APPENDIX PART II) CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA CURRENT PLAN39
APPENDIX PART III.) POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE (AUTOMATION/GREEN TECHNOLOGY) ON THE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION MARKETS40Source:https://www.inboundlogistics.com/articles/warehouse-automation-growing-but-for-how-long/
APPENDIX PART III.) AMAZON’S RECENT WAREHOUSE: 4M SQUARE FEET FOR 1,500 WORKERS41ONTARIO, CALIF. - AMAZON IS OPENING ONE OF ITS LARGEST WAREHOUSES IN THE INLAND EMPIRE. THE FACILITY, LOCATED AT THE MERRILL COMMERCE CENTER IN ONTARIO, WILL BE COMPLETED IN 2024, AND THE TOTAL SQUARE FOOTAGE IS OVER 4 MILLION SQ. FT., MAKING IT ONE OF THEIR LARGEST BUILDINGS.IT WILL EMPLOY OVER 1,500 PEOPLE.AMAZON OFFICIALS SAY THE COMPANY HAS INVESTED MORE THAN $19.3 BILLION IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND $81 BILLION IN CALIFORNIA SINCE 2010. ACCORDING TO A RECENT COMPANY REPORT, AMAZON CREATED OVER 40,000 JOBS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND AMAZON’S INVESTMENTS IN THE REGION LED TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF MORE THAN $15.4 BILLION TO THE ECONOMY OVER THE LAST DECADE.PAUL GRANILLO, PRESIDENT AND CEO OF INLAND ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP, SAYS AMAZON’S INVESTMENT IN THE INLAND EMPIRE HELPED THE REGION BECOME A ‘NATIONAL LEADER IN THE GOODS MOVEMENT INDUSTRY’."THE MORE THAN 40,000 JOBS CREATED BY AMAZON, ALLOWED THE INLAND EMPIRE TO WEATHER THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN BETTER THAN OUR NEIGHBORING COUNTIES. MORE IMPORTANTLY, IT PROVIDES OUR RESIDENTS WITH LOCAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES NEGATING THE NEED FOR MULTI-HOUR DAILY COMMUTES. THESE EFFORTS, PROVIDE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY NOW BUT ALSO POSITION OUR REGION FOR THE FUTURE," GRANILLO SAID IN A STATEMENT. AMAZON IS ALSO OPENING A FULFILMENT CENTER IN VICTORVILLE AND ONTARIO. EACH LOCATION WILL EMPLOY OVER 1,000 PEOPLE.
APPENDIX III.) POTENTIAL EMISSION RAMIFICATIONS 42Sourcehttps://scag.ca.gov/sites/main/files/file-attachments/task5_developingpolicyevaluation.pdf?1604268239
APPENDIX PART III.) FORECAST OF FUTURE DEMAND FOR ADDITIONAL WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION 43
44APPENDIX PART III.) FUTURE IMPACT OF AUTOMATION IN RANCHO CUCAMONGA THERE IS A WIDE VARATION OF AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGIES THAT CAN BE ADOPTED BY EMPLOYERS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODIFICATION TO THE BUILDING SIZE/LAYOUT (INCREASED CEILINGS/CROSS DOCK, ETC.), TO AUTOMATE ONE OF MANY TASKS THAT TAKE PLACE IN A WAREHOUSE. HOWEVER, NOT ALL EMPLOYERS WILL HAVE THE CAPITAL OR ABILITY DUE TO THE SIZE/WEIGHT OF ITEMS TO ADOPT THIS TECHNOLOGY TO THEIR CURRENT WAREHOUSES, AS ONLY CERTAIN TECHNOLOGIES CAN BE EASILY DEPLOYED POST BUILDING CONSTRUCTION. RESEARCH SHOWS THAT AUTOMATION HAS NOT ALWAYS REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF WAREHOUSE JOBS, IT HAS OFTEN LEAD TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF JOBS, DESKILLING EXISTING JOBS, CHANGING HOW EMPLOYEES ARE MANAGERD AND MAY NOT LEAD TO EXISITING JOB LOSS. AUTOMATION WILL MANIFEST ITSELF IN LESS FUTURE EMPLOYEES BEING HIRED POTENTIALLY FOR FUTURE BUILDINGS UNDER CONSTRUCTION, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH A SPECIFIC COMPANY INVESTS IN TECHNOLOGY. IMPACT OF NEW TECNOLOGY ON WAREHOUSE JOBS1. NEW TECHNOLOGIES ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO WORK INTENSIFICATION.2. NEW TECHNOLOGIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DE-SKILL SOME JOBS.3. NEW TECHNOLOGIES ARE POISED TO TRANSFORM HOW WORKERS ARE MANAGED.4. IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM, NEW TECHNOLOGIES LIKELY WILL NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD JOB LOSS.5. TECHNOLOGY IS LIKELY TO HAVE UNEVEN IMPACTS ACROSS DEMOGRAPHICS AND OCCUPATIONS.TECHNOLOGICAL GAINS —INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THOSE THAT MAY DE-SKILL AND INTENSIFY WORK—APPEARS TO BE LED BY THE WIDESPREAD DESIRE TO COMPETE WITH AMAZON AND OTHER MAJOR ONLINE RETAILERS
APPENDIX PART III). AIR POLLUTION RISK 45Sourcehttps://www.lung.org/research/sota/key-findings/most-polluted-placeshttp://www.laalmanac.com/environment/ev01a.phphttps://www.epa.gov/air-trends/air-quality-cities-and-countiesCountyNO2 AM (ppb)NO2 1-hr (ppb)O3 8-hr (ppm)PM10 24-hr (μg/m3) PM2.5 Wtd AM (μg/m3) PM2.5 24-hr (μg/m3) SO2 1-hr (ppb)IncludeRIVERSIDE COUNTY 14 52 0.102 345 14.4 40 2 YSAN BERNARDINO COUNTY 30 73 0.112 181 14.7 49 2 yALL COUNTY AVERAGE 1 0 7 34 0 87 9 26
APPENDIX PART IV.) CITY’S VISION46
1CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGARECENT/EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT/HOUSING TRENDS/PATTERNSIMPACTS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE GOAL OF 2% INFLATIONANDBENEFITS/COSTS OF WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES*PRESENTATION TO CITY COUNCIL – JULY 19, 2023*PREPAREDBY EMPIRE ECONOMICS, INC.JOSEPH T. JANCZYK, PH.D.ORIGINAL STUDY DATE: APRIL 17, 2023(JUNE 2023 – UPDATES TO FED POLICIES, EMPLOYMENTAND WAREHOUSE MARKET CONDITIONS)([KLELW&
SECTION ITHE RESIDENTIAL MARKETHIGH MORTGAGE RATES CAUSING SLUGGISH FOR-SALE HOMES, WHILE APARTMENTS STRONG9
RANCHO CUCAMONGA – HOUSING INVENTORY (SUPPLY) AND PENDING LISTINGS (DEMAND) (2018 –2023 YTD) FOR 2018-2020, THE LEVEL OF FOR-SALE HOMES/INVENTORY WAS HIGHER THAN DEMAND/SALES, NORMAL CONDITIONS3FOR 2022 –MAY 2023, THERE WERE DECLINES IN DEMAND (AFFORDABILITY) AND SUPPLY DECREASED (SLOW SALES) DUE TO HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES0100200300400500600RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS AND INVENTORY (2022-2023 BY MONTH)RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS (DEMAND) AND INVENTORY (SUPPLY) BY MONTH, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (2022-2023 YTD)DEMANDSUPPLY0100200300400500600RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS AND INVENTORY (ANNUAL AVERAGE ACROSS 2018, 2019, AND 2020)RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS (DEMAND) AND INVENTORY (SUPPLY) BY MONTH, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (2018-20)2018-2020 DEMAND/AVG2018-2020 SUPPLY/AVGTYPICAL SUPPLY: ANNUAL AVERAGE ACROSS 2018, 2019 AND 2020TYPICAL DEMAND: ANNUAL AVERAGE ACROSS 2018, 2019 AND 2020SUPPLYSUPPLYDEMANDDEMAND
4SALES OF EXISTING/NEW HOMES IN RANCHO CUCAMONGASINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED AND ATTACHED, 2000-2022•SALES OF EXISTING/NEW SINGLE FAMILY HOMESDECLINED FROM 1,509 IN 2021 TO1,068 IN 2022, ARECORD LOW•SALES OFATTACHED HOMESDECLINED FROM 391 IN 2021 TO 315 IN 2022, THELOWEST SINCE 2013•THESE DECLINES CAN BEATTRIBUTED TOHIGHER MORTGAGE RATESoEXISTING HOMEOWNERSWANT TO KEEPTHEIR HISTORICALLYLOW MORTGAGE RATESoPURCHASERSOF HOMES FACE HIGHER NEW MORTGAGE RATES2,3462,5523,0153,1042,8592,8632,0151,3381,4941,5691,5771,1921,2281,4701,3611,5821,5191,4781,3381,3201,4271,5091,068390
438
480
577
837
983
629
474
410
535
435
294
269
348
348
340
330
394
321
319
355
391
315
05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022RANCHO CUCAMONGA:SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED AND ATTACHED HOUSING SALES Sales - Single Family DetachedSales - Attached
RANCHO CUCAMONGA –ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS BY MONTH (JAN. 2018 – DEC. 2024 FORECAST) ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS = MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL + MORTGAGE INTEREST + PROPERTY TAXES 5E. DECEMBER 2024:IF CURRENT HOUSING PRICES DECLINED BY -8% AND MORTGAGE RATES DECLINED TO 4.5%BY DECEMBER 2024, THE PAYMENT WOULD FALL TO $38KA. 2019-2020: LOWER RATES OFFSET HOUSING APPRECIATION PAYMENT ~$38K IN 2018B. 2021: RISING PRICES AND STABLE RATES DROVE PAYMENTS HIGHER. C. EARLY 2022: HIGHER PRICES AND MORTGAGE RATES DROVE PAYMENTS EVEN HIGHERANNUAL HOUSINGPAYMENT LEVELSD. MID-LATER 2022: FALLING PRICES OFFSET BY RISING MORTGAGE RATES AS PAYMENTS GO EVEN HIGHER, $51,000…………..A…………….|….B….|..C…|..D..|……..….…......EABCDEABCDEANNUAL HOUSINGPAYMENT LEVELS (CON’T.)$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,0001/1/20185/1/20189/1/20181/1/20195/1/20199/1/20191/1/20205/1/20209/1/20201/1/20215/1/20219/1/20211/1/20225/1/20229/1/20221/1/20235/1/20239/1/20231/1/20245/1/20249/1/2024ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENT AMOUNTS (IN 2023 $)RANCHO CUCAMONGA (JAN. '18 - DEC. '24-F) - ESTIMATED ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENT COMPONENTS (MORTGAGE INTEREST + MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL + PROPERTY TAXES) (IN 2023 WAGE $ DOLLARS)PROPERTY TAXMORTGAGE-PRINCIPALMORTGAGE-INTERESTMORTGAGE INTEREST RATESMORTGAGE PRINCIPAL (HOUSING PRICE APPRECIATION)PROPERTY TAXES (HOUSING PRICE APPRECIATION)EMPIRE ECONOMICSAPR. 2021APR.2023~$38K~$51K~$38K+ ~34%
6RECENT TRENDS FOR OVERALL RENTS AND ALSO A NEW APARTMENT PROJECT$2,499$2,808$3,199$3,295$3,799$3,955$4,898$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000776 825 1,046 1,142 1,438 1,680 2,349RANCHO CUCAMONGA NEW ACTIVE APARTMENT PROJECTHOMECOMING AT THE RESORT$0$250$500$750$1,000$1,250$1,500$1,750$2,000$2,250$2,500$2,750$3,0003/1/15 9/1/15 3/1/16 9/1/16 3/1/17 9/1/17 3/1/18 9/1/18 3/1/19 9/1/19 3/1/20 9/1/20 3/1/21 9/1/21 3/1/22 9/1/22APARTMENT RENT TRENDS RANCHO CUCAMONGA & SAN BERNARDINO COUNTYRancho CucamongaSan Bernardino CountyRANCHO CUCAMONGA RENTS FOR EXISTING APARTMENTS ROSE FROM $1,750 IN 2015 TO A PEAK OF $2,750 IN 2022, BUT HAVE RECENTLY DECLINED SLIGHTLYRANCHO CUCAMONGA RENTS FOR NEW APARTMENTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DUE TO NEW CONSTRUCTION AS WELL AS MANY AMENITIES
7•MARKET DEMAND IS ESTIMATED BASED UPON THE CITY’S OVERALL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WITH SPECIAL CONSIDERATION FOR NEWLY DEVELOPING WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES WITH ~2,800 NEW JOBS.•ABSORPTION AMONG THE PROJECTS IS PRIORITIZED ACCORDING TO THEIR CURRENT DEVELOPMENT APPROVAL STATUS.•THE PACE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A SYNCHRONIZED MANNER TO MAINTAIN STABLE RENTS.•SHOULD EXCESS UNITS ENTER THE MARKETPLACE, RENTS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED TO MAINTAIN ABSORPTION.ESTIMATED ABSORPTION SCHEDULES FOR NEW APARTMENT PROJECTS 20833630023000100130940002502501600501752753190501001502002503003504004505002022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028NUMBER OF APARTMENT RENTAL'S - ANNUALLYRANCHO CUCAMONGA NEW APARTMENT PROJECTSACTIVE, UNDER CONSTRUCTION, PERMITS & FUTURE* FUTURE*ALTA CURVEE-260,33-NORTH-311 &HAVEN/ARROW-248* PERMITS ISUED *HARVEST @ TERRAVISTA-660* CONSTRUCTION*LA MIRAGE-193 &WESTBURY-131* ACTIVE *HOMECOMING-867
SECTION IINON-RESIDENTIALWAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION (W/D), THE PRIMARY GROWTH SECTOR BUT MINIMAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS 17
GEOGRAPHICAL DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION MARKET IN THE INLAND EMPIRERANCHO CUCAMONGA HAS A STRATEGIC LOCATION VS CITIES LOCATED EASTERLY IN SB-R COUNTIESCLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PORTS/RAIL/HIGHWAYS AND ALSO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LA POPULATION CORE9
FORECAST OF NEAR-TERM AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTFOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION PROJECTS10THE RANCHO CUCAMONGA PLANNING DEPARTMENT PROVIDED INFORMATION ON THE WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION PROJECTS, THAT ARE CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION OR AT VARIOUS STAGES IN THE PLANNING PROCESS.106,19246,62074,3872,304,269794,0141,215,0302,410,461840,6341,289,4170500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,000UNDER CONSTRUCTION:2023 -2024PLAN CHECK: 2024-2025 ENTITLEMENTS: 2025 -2026TOTAL SQUARE FEETCITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA MAJOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION FORTHCOMING PROJECTS - NEAR TERM BELOW ~75,000 SQ.FT.ABOVE ~75,000 SQ.FT.•CONSTRUCTION TIMES ESTIMATED BASED UPON EXPECTED MARKET DEMAND •ACTUAL CONSTRUCTION AND MARKET ENTRY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE DEVELOPERS/PROPERTY OWNERS.
NEAR-TERM FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION FOR RANCHO CUCAMONGA11THE NEAR-TERM W/D PROJECTS HAVE AN ESTIMATED 4,500,000 SQ.FT. EMPIRE ECONOMICS ESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF EMPLOYMENT WILL GENERATE ABOUT 2,833 NEW JOBS.602,6151,625,5481,630,447644,7090200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002023 2024 2025 2026BUILDING SQ.FT. ABSORBED RANCHO CUCAMONGA WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONABSORPTION OF NEW BUILDING SPACEBUILDING - SQ.FT.3831,0251,02140302004006008001,0001,2002023 2024 2025 2026NEW EMPLOYMETNRANCHO CUCAMONGA WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONNEW EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYEES• ABSORPTION ESTIMATED BASED UPON EXPECTED DEMAND •ACTUAL CONSTRUCTION AND MARKET ENTRY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE DEVELOPERS/PROPERTY OWNERS.BASED UPON RECENT DATA OF W/D EMPLOYMENT IN THE CITY, ABOUT 80% OF SUCH WORKERS RESIDE IN THE CITY
• ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE LAND USES, SUCH AS OFFICE, RETAIL AND MULTIFAMILY, THEIR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL, AS MEASURED BY ECONOMIC METRICS, ARE CURRENTLY NOT AS FAVORABLE12OVERVIEW OF CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONAND ALTERNATIVE POTENTIAL LAND USES: RETAIL, OFFICE AND MULTIFAMILY/APARTMENTS $1.51$2.20$1.95$2.18$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50W / D RETAIL OFFICE MULTIFAMILYRENTS PER SQ.FT. - MONTHLYRECENT RENTS$54,826$30,692$52,495$74,218$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000$70,000$80,000$90,000W / D RETAIL OFFICE MULTIFAMILYEMPLOYEE SALARIES - ANNUALLYEMPLOYEE SALARIES 1487275100050100150200250300W / D RETAIL OFFICE MULTIFAMILYEMPLOYEES/RESIDENTS PER ACREEMPLOYEES/RESIDENTS - PER ACRE1.1%6.5%5.3%4.8%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%W / D RETAIL OFFICE MULTIFAMILYVACANCY RATERECENT VACANCY RATES
RANCHO CUCAMONGA: COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION AND OTHER POTENTIAL LAND-USES13DESCRIPTION OF NUMERIC ESTIMATESWAREHOUSE / DISTRIBUTION RETAIL OFFICE MULTIFAMILYVACANCY RATE1.1% 6.5% 5.3% 4.8%MARKET RENT PSF $1.51 $2.20 $1.95 $2.18 NET OPERATING INCOME (NOI) $87,210 $71,585 $270,168 $888,216 CAP RATE - USED TO ESTIMATE VALUE 4.5% 6.5% 6.5% 5.8%IMPLIED MARKET VALUE $1,938,004 $1,101,310 $4,156,431 $15,314,063 SALE VALUE PRICE PER SQ. FT. OF LAND $268 $175 $182 $225 BUILDING COVERAGE 41% 38% 72% 125%ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX PER ACRE $32,946 $18,722 $70,659 $260,339 FUTURE DEMAND HIGH MODERATE MINIMAL HIGHTOTAL WORKERS/RESIDENTS PER SECTOR 8,271 17,177 31,239 61,769WORKERS/RESIDENTS PER ACRE 14 87 275 100AVERAGE WAGE - EMPLOYEES $54,826 $30,692 $52,495 $74,218 WAGE GROWTH POTENTIAL MINIMAL MINIMAL MODERATE MODERATEPRIMARILY CITY RESIDENTS; MINIMAL MINIMAL MODERATE YESSALES TAX ELIGIBLE NO YES YES YESIMPACTED BY REMOTE WORK NO NO YES NOIMPACTED NEGATIVELY BY AUTOMATION YES SOME YES NOPOSITIVE EXTERNALITIES STABLE SHOPPING HUB BRINGS IN WORKERS RESIDENT BASENEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES/RISK TRAFFIC ECONOMIC CYCLE REMOTE WORK RENTERSPOLLUTIONOPPORTUNITY COSTNOTES HIGH DEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE DUE TO PRIME INLAND EMPIRE LOCATION.CAN SERVICE DAILY AND REGIONAL NEEDS. VACANCY AND RENT DEPENDENT ON NEEDS.SUSCEPTIBLE TO REMOTE WORK, LOW VACANCY IN RC DRIVEN BY HEALTHCARE DEMAND
CONCLUSIONS AND INSIGHTS I. RESIDENTIAL MARKET: HIGH MORTGAGE RATES, FOR-SALE HOMES SLUGGISH, WHILE APARTMENTS STRONG•MARKET FOR EXISTING HOMES EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLUGGISH THROUGH 2024•HOME SALES RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO CURRENT HOMEOWNERS HAVING HISTORICALLY LOW MORTGAGE RATES•NEW RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY IN THE CITY PRIMARILY APARTMENTSII. NON-RESIDENTIAL: WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION (W/D) AS THE PRIMARY GROWTH SECTOR,BUT MINIMAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS •ROBUST DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR W/D IN THE CITY – NEAR-TERM 4M SQ.FT.•BUT ECONOMIC BENEFITS MINIMAL AND POTENTIAL TRAFFIC/HEALTH EXTERNALITIES* THE PRIMARY SECTORS GENERATING NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE CITY ARE W/D AND APARTMENT PROJECTS 26
1
1
9
9
4
DATE:August 23, 2023
TO:Chairman and Members of the Planning Commission
FROM:Matt Marquez, Director of Planning and Economic Development
SUBJECT:Introduction to the City of Rancho Cucamonga’s Economic Development
Strategy. This item is exempt from the requirements of the California
Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) under CEQA Section 15061 (b)(3) – Common
Sense Exemption.
RECOMMENDATION:
Staff recommends that the Planning Commission receive a presentation on the City of Rancho Cucamonga’s
Economic Development Strategy and provide staff with comments and feedback.
BACKGROUND:
In the last decade, the Inland Empire has experienced remarkable growth, experiencing increases in population,
employment opportunities, and investment in manufacturing, logistics, and other industries. The region is
strategically located between major metro areas and connected to the rest of the country and the world by several
highways, railways, Ontario International Airport and the nearby Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Rancho
Cucamonga is well-positioned to further leverage the advantages of the region via its skilled workforce, high-
quality-built environment, and expanding economy. The Economic Development Strategy (EDS) is a five-year
work plan that will guide and support the City in establishing and sustaining Rancho Cucamonga as the cultural
and economic hub of the Inland Empire.
The last strategic plan developed for the City’s Economic Development efforts was in 2015. The updated EDS
builds on PlanRC, the City’s General Plan, that was adopted on December 15, 2021. The General Plan lays out
a series of strategies to chart a path towards building a 21st century world-class community that is grounded in
the foundational core values of health, equity, and stewardship. The EDS is intended to fortify linkages with
PlanRC and its Big Ideas, to emphasize that economic development activities are shared across all departments
in the City. The goals and strategies identified have been designed to address specific economic development
objectives, such as growing the local economy and ensuring community vitality so that it can continue to provide
high-quality public services and amenities.
This staff report will provide a general outline of the EDS and its key features. The full version of the EDS is
attached to this staff report for your reading and reference.
ANALYSIS:
The EDS was designed to serve as a guide for the City over the next five years. It is meant to be a fluid strategy
and will be reviewed annually to determine if there is a change in priorities or if resources need to be shifted.
The Commission is being asked to review the document, receive a presentation from staff, and provide
comments on the EDS. Staff’s presentation will serve as an introduction to the Strategy’s content, including
strategies and implementation. This may serve as the Commission’s only discussion on the topic, or it could be
the first of two should the Commission need additional time to complete their review.
2
1
9
9
4
The EDS was informed by a review of regional, state, and global trends, as well as an analysis of the City’s
demographic, economic, and market conditions. Although the nature and extent of future market conditions is
unknown, the EDS provides foundational approaches to economic development in Rancho Cucamonga that will
serve the City during the life of the document.
Sections of the EDS describe the strengths, challenges, and opportunities to grow the City’s economy; target
industries to expand in the City; and the goals, strategies, and actions of the EDS. The final section of the
document includes a five-year implementation plan that organizes tasks according to a timeline, assigns the
City department that will lead the activity, and identifies assisting potential partner departments, agencies, or
organizations.
Strengths, Opportunities, Challenges
This section of the EDS identifies the City’s strengths, challenges, and opportunities to strengthen the City’s
economy.
Strengths:
1. High-quality transportation access. Rancho Cucamonga is located next to major highways, rail transit,
and air transport options. Vegas.
2. Located near major population and employment centers. The City of Rancho Cucamonga is an
hour’s drive from Central Los Angeles and Orange County, and an hour and a half from San Diego.
3. Proximity to complementary manufacturing businesses and skilled talent in the local region. San
Bernardino County has a concentration of workers with specialized talents and a one-of-a-kind training
facility, the InTech Center, located in the neighboring City of Fontana.
4. Well-educated residents. In addition to workers with specialized, manufacturing-related skills,
companies in Rancho Cucamonga have access to highly educated workers.
5. High resident incomes. Incomes in Rancho Cucamonga are high compared to the region. The median
income in Rancho Cucamonga is approximately $95,000, compared to approximately $70,300 for San
Bernardino County.
6. Access to education opportunities that complement key industries in Rancho Cucamonga.
Rancho Cucamonga is home to Chaffey College and a satellite campus of the University of Redlands.
Companies in Rancho Cucamonga can also draw talent from other nearby higher education institutions.
7. Quality amenities and built environment. The City has a high-quality built environment. The City’s
roads are well maintained and are well landscaped on major corridors.
8. Quality master planned neighborhoods. Rancho Cucamonga has several comprehensively designed
communities that feature quality housing stock and amenities.
9. Attractive and productive weather. The warm climate and mild winters in Rancho Cucamonga are
attractive to residents but also benefit manufacturers due to the relatively few weather-related closure
days for companies.
3
1
9
9
4
10. Affordable real estate. Land costs in Rancho Cucamonga are relatively affordable compared to the Los
Angeles Metro region and coastal communities in Southern California. Low land costs are attractive to
companies for reducing costs, and attainably priced housing allows companies to recruit workers that
can live in or near the City.
11. Strong performing commercial real estate. Rancho Cucamonga’s commercial land uses are
performing better than in the County overall. The City’s office, retail, and industrial rents are higher than
the County’s, and vacancies are on par or lower than in the County.
Challenges:
1. Lack of downtown/city core identity. The City currently lacks a strong identity for its downtown. The
City’s General Plan explores “the potential of the area around Victoria Gardens and the Epicenter to
become the ‘real downtown’ of Rancho Cucamonga.”
2. Potential retail spending leakage. According to data from the California Department of Tax and Fee
Administration, Rancho Cucamonga lags behind San Bernardino County on taxable sales per household
for certain retail categories such as clothing apparel, health and personal care stores, and other
miscellaneous retail.
3. Shifting trend in retail due to online shopping. Rancho Cucamonga’s local retail market is influenced
by larger-scale national trends. Over the last decade, retail markets have been shifting and reorganizing
in large part due to the growth of e-commerce.
4. Lack of population densities to attract higher-end retailers. Rancho Cucamonga is a strong fit for
many retailers due in part to the City’s high incomes. However, certain retailers are partial to areas with
higher concentrated population densities.
5. Mismatch between resident worker talent and city employment opportunities. Rancho Cucamonga
has a skilled workforce, most of which commute outside the city for work. An estimated 85 percent of
resident workers commute to nearby communities or Downtown Los Angeles, San Bernardino, or Orange
County (PlanRC Existing Conditions Report, 2020).
6. Diminishing supply of vacant land. Beginning in the 1990s and continuing through the 2010s, Rancho
Cucamonga experienced strong demand for new development on vacant or sparsely utilized sites. The
availability of large tracts of land spurred the development of master planned residential communities,
which characterized much of the community’s growth. This has led to diminishing opportunities for new
large-scale projects.
7. Pressure for less employment-dense uses like logistics. The logistics boom in the Inland Empire also
created demand for warehouse and distribution space in Rancho Cucamonga. While this type of
investment may be attractive to individual landowners, it generates less employment and synergy with
other businesses compared to other industrial activities.
8. Older parts of the city have limited access to amenities. Rancho Cucamonga has experienced
uneven development and investment across the city. Older neighborhoods, including those in the south
and southeast portions of the city, have seen less recent investment in amenities by the private sector.
Opportunities:
1. Leverage transportation infrastructure projects to build a thriving HART District. The City’s
General Plan envisions the HART District as an intense, mixed-use area. Within the District, the
Cucamonga Station is positioned to be a major transit hub connecting regional and high-speed rail lines.
4
1
9
9
4
2. Attract high-wage and high-skill jobs that match City resident population. Many Rancho
Cucamonga residents commute outside the city for work. As Rancho Cucamonga grows as an
employment center, the City may be able to retain more residents to work at companies in the City.
3. Complimenting entertainment and hospitality options in Ontario along Fourth Street and I-10. At
the northern border of the City of Ontario, there is a cluster of entertainment facilities including the Ontario
Mills Mall, the Toyota Arena, Dave & Buster’s, and Topgolf. Additionally, there are several hotels
concentrated along the I-10 and adjacent to the Ontario International Airport.
4. Expand entertainment options unique to Rancho Cucamonga. The City’s General Plan stresses the
desire of the community for “more fun places to go, more things to do, and more ways to get there.”
Residents and visitors want places to congregate, gather, and socialize in lively centers, shopping areas,
and arts, culture, and entertainment venues.
5. Build a vibrant downtown. Through the City’s community engagement process for the City’s recently
updated General Plan, the community expressed a desire for creating vibrant activity nodes and a “real
downtown.”
6. Capture more resident retail spending. Rancho Cucamonga is currently a regional retail destination,
but residents may be traveling outside the city for certain purchases.
7. Leverage and grow international food manufacturing. Rancho Cucamonga’s specialization in food
manufacturing and access to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and ONT could position the city
to attract additional international food manufacturing companies. Two of Rancho Cucamonga’s largest
food manufacturing firms, Mizkan America and Nongshim USA are international companies based in
Asia. The City is also home to a Mission Foods facility, a subsidiary of Mexico-based, global food
company, Gruma.
8. Leverage and grow the aerospace industry. Southern California has a large concentration of
aerospace businesses, which is particularly concentrated in Orange County and Los Angeles County.
San Bernardino County also has a fast-growing aerospace sector with nearly 300 aerospace-related
manufacturers and several aerospace international companies based in Korea, China, Japan, Britain,
France, and Switzerland.
9. Attract businesses in emerging green technology sectors such as electric vehicle-related
manufacturing. California is striving toward increasing the number of electric vehicles in the State.
California’s push toward electric vehicles will likely spur significant growth in this sector. Rancho
Cucamonga is well positioned to leverage its location and concentrated advanced manufacturing sector.
Water supply technology is another emerging sector that Rancho Cucamonga could leverage. Water
security has been a growing concern in California for decades. The development and manufacturing of
water supply technologies is an emerging sector with immediate relevance in Southern California.
Rancho Cucamonga is already home to a leading company developing technology equipment for water
treatment plants, Biwater, an international company based in the UK that moved operations from Los
Angeles County to Rancho Cucamonga because of proximity to their vendors and to industries that
support their operations.
10. Grow an expanding healthcare sector. Health care and social assistance currently account for a
significant portion of the City’s employment at approximately 10 percent of the City’s total jobs. While the
concentration of health care and social assistance jobs is somewhat lower compared to San Bernardino
County and the overall State of California, the sector is growing faster in Rancho Cucamonga than in the
County or the State.
5
1
9
9
4
11. Leverage strong sector in local and regional household serving office-based industries. The City’s
concentrated professional services industry contains many offices that provide legal, tax, and design
services to the local and regional community. Many of these types of services require a physical presence
to serve customers and are more likely to be resilient to shifts to online platforms and telecommuting.
Rancho Cucamonga is well-positioned to grow as a hub for these types of office-based services based
on the presence of high quality attainably priced residential options.
12. Expand professional and technical services that complement the City’s manufacturing sectors.
Professional service companies with offices in Rancho Cucamonga such as CDM Smith and Atlas
Testing Laboratories complement the advanced manufacturing sector in the City. Rancho Cucamonga
could attract more companies that offer engineering, marketing, and other complementary services to
the City’s manufacturing businesses.
Target Industries
The City is committed to attracting and retaining high quality jobs to grow and diversify Rancho Cucamonga’s
economy and to reduce residents commuting outside the City. This is best accomplished by targeting industries
in the City that have a unique advantage to growing. These target industries were identified based on their
employment size, growth, and concentration in the City and on the size and performance of the sectors in the
larger region. The target industries are sectors that are not only strong in Rancho Cucamonga but are also strong
industries in the Inland Empire that the City can leverage and build on. The EDS provides a special focus on
growing and supporting the target industries sectors. Tailored strategies are included to leverage the City’s
unique strengths in these industries.
Target industries that are well-positioned to grow and diversify Rancho Cucamonga’s economy include:
1. Advanced Manufacturing - manufacturing activity involving innovative technologies and requiring
skilled workers with technical knowledge and training. Advanced manufacturers span industries that
include the production of aerospace equipment, medical devices, and computer components.
2. Medical Manufacturing - involves the production of medical equipment and medicine.
3. Food and Beverage Manufacturing - food and beverage manufacturing is a unique segment of Rancho
Cucamonga’s manufacturing sector that contains about 1,400 jobs and is concentrated in the City relative
to San Bernardino County, which itself contains a large amount of activity in the sector.
4. Finance, Insurance and Real Estate - Rancho Cucamonga has a high concentration of the region’s
finance, insurance, and real estate industry (sometimes referred to as FIRE industries) employment.
There are approximately 5,800 FIRE jobs in the City that account for 9.4 percent of total employment.
5. Professional and Medical Services - Professional service firms range from engineering and design
companies to legal and accounting firms. Rancho Cucamonga has approximately 2,700 professional
service jobs, which accounts for five percent of total employment.
6
1
9
9
4
Goals and Strategies
The ultimate goal of the EDS is to help establish Rancho Cucamonga as the cultural and economic hub of the
Inland Empire. To accomplish this, the EDS establishes four guiding goals, which include the following:
1. Grow and Diversify the City’s Economy
2. Enhance the Quality of Life
3. Expand Retail, Entertainment, and Hospitality
4. Foster Growth of Local Businesses and Workforce
These goals organize the EDS’s strategies, which provide more specific guidance to the City through a series of
actions. A summary is shown below and additional details on related action items and the strategy’s
implementation plan can be found in the EDS document.
7
1
9
9
4
In conclusion, the Planning Commission is being asked to review the EDS and provide comments and feedback
to staff. This Strategy will serve as a guide of the City’s economic development efforts over the next five years.
It will be revisited annually to determine if updates are necessary to address changing priorities. Upon
completion of the Commission’s review, staff will present the EDS to the City Council for their review and
approval.
COUNCIL MISSION / VISION / VALUE(S) ADDRESSED:
This item addresses the City Council’s Core Values of “Intentionally embracing and anticipating the future”, and
“Equitable prosperity for all” by ensuring that Rancho Cucamonga’s vibrant economy ensures prosperity and
opportunities now and in the future.
EXHIBITS:
Exhibit A – Economic Development Strategy
Exhibit B – Economic Development Strategy – Background Report
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | 1 Exhibit A
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 2
Introduction
In the last decade, the Inland Empire has experienced remarkable growth, experiencing increases in
population, employment opportunities, and investment in manufacturing, logistics, and other industries. The
region is strategically located between major metro areas and connected to the rest of the country and the
world by several highways, railways, Ontario International Airport and the nearby Ports of Los Angeles and
Long Beach. Rancho Cucamonga is well-positioned to further leverage the advantages of the region via its
skilled workforce, high-quality-built environment, and expanding economy. The Economic Development
Strategy (EDS) is a five-year work plan that will guide and support the City in establishing and sustaining
Rancho Cucamonga as the cultural and economic hub of the Inland Empire.
About the Economic Development Strategy
The EDS will guide the City’s economic development activities over the next five years. The document
identifies goals and strategies that will serve as a road map for City staff and civic leaders. The EDS
primarily provides direction to the City’s Economic Development Division, but the success of the EDS
depends on the coordination and communication with other City departments, public agencies, and partner
organizations.
The EDS was informed by a review of regional, state, and global trends, as well as a detailed analys is of
the City’s demographic, economic, and market conditions. Although the nature and extent of future market
conditions is unknown, the EDS provides foundational approaches to economic development in Rancho
Cucamonga that will serve the City during the life of the document.
The following sections describe the strengths, challenges, and opportunities to grow the City’s economy;
key industries to expand in the City; and the goals, strategies, and actions of the EDS. The final section of
the EDS includes a five-year work plan that organizes tasks according to a timeline, assigns the City
department that will lead the activity, and identifies assisting potential partner departments, agencies, or
organizations.
Heart of the Matter
The EDS builds on Plan RC, the City’s General Plan, that was adopted on December 15, 2021. The General
Plan lays out a series of strategies to chart a path towards building a 21st century world -class community
that is grounded in the foundational core values of health, equity, and stewardship. The vision of Plan RC
is to create a city for people – a city of great neighborhoods, natural open spaces and parks, thriving
commercial and industrial areas, and walkable and active centers and districts, all connect ed by safe and
comfortable streets. Through the implementation of Plan RC, the city will develop to be more welcoming
and accessible to both residents and visitors.
To meet the vision and core values of Plan RC, five Big Ideas were identified
• Design for People First: focus should be on people and development must be human scale and
inviting;
• Provide Connectivity and Accessibility: provide a range of travel options including new
opportunities for walking, bicycling and transit;
• Create Destinations: places to congregate, gather, and socialize;
• Cultural and Economic Hub of the Inland Empire : a downtown area, or several major activity
centers, with varied cultural opportunities and public art; and
• Address Environmental Justice: everyone in the city has a fair and just opportunity to thrive and
no one, especially those with the least means, shoulders the additional health burdens of
environmental degradation and pollution.
The EDS is intended to fortify linkages with Plan RC and the Big Ideas, to emphasize that economic
development activities are shared across all departments in the City. The goals and strategies identified
have been designed to address specific economic development objectives: improve health outcomes
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 3
through economic attainment, grow the local economy, diversify the local economy, build economic health
and long-term fiscal resiliency, and ensure community vitality so that it can continue to provide high -quality
public services and amenities.
Within each of the strategies are achievable and measur able action items designed to serve as a guide for
the City over the next five years. The EDS is meant to be fluid in that it will be reviewed annually to determine
if there is a change in priorities or if resources need to be shifted. During this time, th e City of Rancho
Cucamonga will continue working towards its long-range goals and planning efforts that are the framework
of the City’s vision of being a world-class community, making Rancho Cucamonga a special place to live,
work, and thrive.
Strengths, Opportunities, Challenges
This section identifies the City’s strengths, challenges, and opportunities to strengthen the City’s economy.
Strengths
High-quality transportation access. Rancho Cucamonga is located next to major highways, rail transit,
and air transport options. Interstate 10 and Interstate 15 are located along the borders of the City, and State
Highway 210 and Foothill Boulevard (Historic Route 66) run through the center of Rancho Cucamonga.
These highways provide access to shipping routes to the north and east of the County and access to the
Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The nearby Ontario International Airport (ONT) is a growing
passenger and logistics hub. In recent years, ONT has been one of the fastest-growing airports in the
country. The San Bernardino International Airport is also expanding its services and now has regular
passenger service for the first time, and LAX and SNA are a reasonable distance from the city to be a
potential option for travelers to the area. The City also has a Metrolink rail station that runs directly to
Downtown Los Angeles, and there are plans to build a high-speed rail line that will connect Rancho
Cucamonga to Las Vegas. Additionally, the City has access to two Class I railroads, Union Pacific and
BNSF, which have continued to improve this level of service for freight shipping across the country.
Located near major population and employment centers. The City of Rancho Cucamonga is an hour’s
drive from Central Los Angeles and Orange County, and an hour and a half from San Diego. Proximity to
these areas allows for access to major consumer markets, workforce talent, and complimentary businesses
across industry sectors.
Proximity to complementary manufacturing businesses and skilled talent in the local region. San
Bernardino County has a concentration of workers with specialized talents and a one-of-a-kind training
facility, the InTech Center, located in the neighboring City of Fontana that specializes in building skill s that
are desirable to manufacturing companies in various sectors. The County also contains many
complimentary businesses to manufacturing. Warehousing and distribution centers are an example of
complementary businesses that have grown significantly in the local region. Manufacturers in Rancho
Cucamonga benefit from the City’s proximity to customer distribution centers.
Well-educated residents. In addition to workers with specialized, manufacturing-related skills, companies
in Rancho Cucamonga have access to highly educated workers. Residents in Rancho Cucamonga are
particularly well-educated compared to the rest of the local region. In 2021, 37 percent of Rancho
Cucamonga residents held a bachelor’s degree or higher compared to 22 percent of residents in San
Bernardino County overall. Educated residents and workers are attractive to companies with skilled worker
needs and retail businesses looking for high-income customer bases.
High resident incomes. Incomes in Rancho Cucamonga are high compared to the region. The median
income in Rancho Cucamonga is approximately $95,000, compared to approximately $70,300 for San
Bernardino County.
Access to education opportunities that complement key industries in Rancho Cucamonga. Rancho
Cucamonga is home to Chaffey College and a satellite campus of the University of Redlands. These
schools have been valuable for Rancho Cucamonga employers to gain access to interns and apprentices.
Companies in Rancho Cucamonga can also draw talent from other nearby higher education institutions
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 4
such as UC Riverside, Cal Poly Pomona, UC San Bernardino, San Bernardino Valley College, University
of La Verne, Claremont Colleges, and other technical schools in the area. Many of these s chools offer
vocational training and industry-specific programs that complement the expanding sectors in the area such
as advanced manufacturing and aerospace. For example, Cal Poly Pomona’s Department of Aerospace
Engineering provides a hands-on engineering program to ready students for working in the aerospace
industry.
Quality amenities and built environment. The City has a high-quality built environment. The City’s roads
are well maintained and are well landscaped on major corridors. The City’s de facto core, Victoria Gardens,
provides a pedestrian-friendly, and urban design-rich experience for local and regional shoppers. The City
is growing and attracting quality talent because of the high quality of life in the City.
Quality master planned neighborhoods. Rancho Cucamonga has several comprehensively designed
communities that feature quality housing stock and amenities.
Attractive and productive weather. The warm climate and mild winters in Rancho Cucamonga are
attractive to residents but also benefit manufacturers due to the relatively few weather-related closure days
for companies. Additionally, the mild weather on the Southern California coast makes the nearby Ports of
Los Angeles and Long Beach more efficient relative to ports along the northern and eastern U.S. coasts.
Affordable real estate. Land costs in Rancho Cucamonga are relatively affordable compared to the Los
Angeles Metro region and coastal communities in Southern California. Low land cost s are attractive to
companies for reducing costs, and attainably priced housing allows companies to recruit workers that can
live in or near the City.
Strong performing commercial real estate. Rancho Cucamonga’s commercial land uses are performing
better than in the County overall. The City’s office, retail, and industrial rents are higher than the County’s,
and vacancies are on par or lower than in the County.
Challenges
Lack of downtown/city core identity . The City currently lacks a strong identity for its downtown. The City’s
General Plan explores “the potential of the area around Victoria Gardens and the Epicenter to become the
‘real downtown’ of Rancho Cucamonga.”
Potential retail spending leakage. According to data from the California Department of Tax and Fee
Administration, Rancho Cucamonga lags behind San Bernardino County on taxable sales per household
for certain retail categories such as clothing apparel, automotive-related products and services, health and
personal care stores, and other miscellaneous retail. This suggests that residents in Rancho Cucamonga
may be traveling outside the City to make certain purchases.
Shifting trend in retail due to online shopping. Rancho Cucamonga’s local retail market is influenced
by larger-scale national trends. Over the last decade, retail markets have been shifting and reorganizing in
large part due to the growth of e-commerce. However, while increased online sales have reduced the
demand for in-store sales, there has been an increased demand for experiential retail such as restaurants,
bars, and gyms. Over the last two years, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted brick and mortar retail stores
of all types and accelerated the shift in demand for online sales of physical goods. While the details of the
long-term impacts from COVID-19 for the retail market are uncertain, the market will likely rebound while
perhaps also changing to accommodate new trends enabled by new technologies and consumer
expectations regarding convenience such as contactless shopping.
Lack of population densities to attract higher-end retailers. Rancho Cucamonga is a strong fit for many
retailers due in part to the City’s high incomes. However, certain retailers are partial to areas with higher
concentrated population densities. High-end coffee businesses, grocers, and full-service restaurants often
seek to locate in areas with high population densities with access to at least 200,000 people within a one
to three-mile radius, which is typically achieved in highly populated city downtowns.
Mismatch between resident worker talent and city employment opportunities. Rancho Cucamonga
has a skilled workforce, most of which commute outside the city for work. An estimated 85 percent of
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 5
resident workers commute to nearby communities or Downtown Los Angeles, San Bernardino, or Orange
County (PlanRC Existing Conditions Report, 2020).
Diminishing supply of vacant land. Beginning in the 1990s and continuing through the 2010s , Rancho
Cucamonga experienced strong demand for new development on vacant or sparsely utilized sites . The
availability of large tracts of land spurred the development of master planned residential communities , which
characterized much of the community’s growth. This has led to diminishing opportunities for new large-
scale projects. A similar dynamic has occurred with commercial and industrial land as many of the most
attractive sites with access to rail and highway infrastructure have been developed .
Pressure for less employment-dense uses like logistics. The logistics boom in the Inland Empire also
created demand for warehouse and distribution space in Rancho Cucamonga. Businesses in this industry
have been able to pay higher land costs for desirable sites. While this type of investment may be attractive
to individual landowners, it generates less employment and synergy with other businesses compared to
other industrial activities.
Older parts of the city have limited access to amenities. Like many communities, Rancho Cucamonga
has experienced uneven development and investment across the city. Older neighborhoods within Rancho
Cucamonga, including those in the south and southeast portions of the city, have seen less recent
investment in amenities by the private sector.
Opportunities
Leverage transportation infrastructure projects to build a thriving HART District . The City’s General
Plan envisions the HART District as an intense, mixed-use area. Within the District, the Cucamonga Station
is positioned to be a major transit hub connecting regional and high-speed rail lines. The HART District has
strong potential to become a thriving new district in the city that attracts new talent and employers to the
City.
Attract high-wage and high-skill jobs that match City resident population. Many Rancho Cucamonga
residents commute outside the city for work. As Rancho Cucamonga grows as an employment center, the
City may be able to retain more residents to work at companies in the City.
Complimenting entertainment and hospitality options in Ontario along Fourth Street and I -10. At the
northern border of the City of Ontario, there is a cluster of entertainment facilities including the Ontario Mills
Mall, the Toyota Arena, Dave & Buster’s, and Topgolf. Additionally, there are several hotels concentrated
along the I-10 and adjacent to the Ontario International Airport.
Expand entertainment options unique to Rancho Cucamonga. The City’s General Plan stresses the
desire of the community for “more fun places to go, more things to do, and more ways to get there.”
Residents and visitors want places to congregate, gather, and socialize in lively centers, shopping areas,
and arts, culture, and entertainment venues.
Build a vibrant downtown. Through the City’s community engagement process for the City’s recently
updated General Plan, the community expressed a desire for creating vibrant activity nodes and a “real
downtown.”
Capture more resident retail spending. Rancho Cucamonga is currently a regional retail destination, but
residents may be traveling outside the city for certain purchases. The City could capture more of its
residents’ purchases by attracting more retail businesses that match residents’ needs.
Leverage and grow international food manufacturing. Rancho Cucamonga’s specialization in food
manufacturing and access to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and ONT could position the city to
attract additional international food manufacturing companies. Two of Rancho Cucamonga’s largest food
manufacturing firms, Mizkan America and Nongshim USA are international companies based in Asia. The
City is also home to a Mission Foods facility, a subsidiary of Mexico-based, global food company, Gruma.
Leverage and grow the aerospace industry. Southern California has a large concentration of aerospace
businesses, which is particularly concentrated in Orange County and Los Angeles County. San Bernardino
County also has a fast-growing aerospace sector with nearly 300 aerospace-related manufacturers and
several aerospace international companies based in Korea, China, Japan, Britain, France, and Switzerland.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 6
Rancho Cucamonga is home to several aerospace-related companies including Air Components Inc,
Hartwell Corporation, and Pneudraulics Inc.
Attract businesses in emerging green technology sectors such as electric vehicle-related
manufacturing. California is striving toward increasing the number of electric vehicles in the State. By
2035, most new cars and light trucks sold in California will be zero -emission vehicles, including plug-in
hybrid electric vehicles.1 As the most populous and wealthy U.S. state, California’s push toward electric
vehicles will likely spur significant growth in this sector. Rancho Cucamonga is well positioned to leverage
its location and concentrated advanced manufacturing sector to take advantage of the growth in electric
vehicle-related manufacturing. Rancho Cucamonga is located near complimentary electric vehicle
businesses in Los Angeles, Irvine, and San Diego, and companies in Rancho Cucamonga have access to
electric vehicle talent from companies like Tesla and Ford. Additionally, Rancho Cucamonga is near areas
such as Mountain Pass, CA, which are rich with rare earth minerals that are necessary for electric vehicle
production. Water supply technology is another emerging sector that Rancho Cucamonga could leverage.
Water security has been a growing concern in California for decades, and the State has moved towards
measures and major investments to increase water supply security. The development and manufacturing
of water supply technologies is an emerging sector with immediate relevance in Southern California.
Rancho Cucamonga is already home to a leading company developing technology equipment for water
treatment plants, Biwater, an international company based in the UK that moved operations from Los
Angeles County to Rancho Cucamonga because of proximity to their vendors and to industries that support
their operations.2 There are several water supply technology programs offered at local colleges including
San Bernardino Valley College, and Los Angeles Trade-Technical College.
Grow an expanding healthcare sector. Health care and social assistance currently account for a
significant portion of the City’s employment at approximately 10 percent of the City’s total jobs. While the
concentration of health care and social assistance jobs is somewhat lower compared to San Bernardino
County and the overall State of California, the sector is growing faster in Rancho Cucamonga than in the
County or the State.
Leverage strong sector in local and regional household serving office-based industries. The City’s
concentrated professional services industry contains many offices that provide legal, tax, and design
services to the local and regional community. Many of these types of services require a physical presence
to serve customers and are more likely to be resilient to shifts to online platforms and telecommuting.
Rancho Cucamonga is well-positioned to grow as a hub for these types of office-based services based on
the presence of high quality attainably priced residential options.
Expand professional and technical services that complement the City’s manufacturing sectors.
Professional service companies with offices in Rancho Cucamonga such as CDM Smith and Atlas Testing
Laboratories complement the advanced manufacturing sector in the City. Rancho Cucamonga could attract
more companies that offer engineering, marketing, and other complementary services to the City’s
manufacturing businesses.
Target Industries
The City is committed to attracting and retaining high quality jobs to grow and diversify Rancho
Cucamonga’s economy and to reduce residents commuting outside the City. This is best accomplished by
targeting industries in the City that have a unique advantage to growing. Target industries that are well-
positioned to grow and diversify Rancho Cucamonga’s economy include:
• Advanced Manufacturing
• Medical Manufacturing
• Food and Beverage Manufacturing
• Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
1 https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-moves-accelerate-100-new-zero-emission-vehicle-sales-2035
2 https://siteselection.com/issues/2022/sep/the-world-finds-a-home-in-san-bernardino-county.cfm
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 7
• Professional and Medical Services
These target industries were identified based on their employment size, growth, and concentration in the
City and on the size and performance of the sectors in the larger region. The target industries are sectors
that are not only strong in Rancho Cucamonga but are also strong industries in the Inland Empire that the
City can leverage and build on. The EDS provides a special focus on growing and supporting the target
industries sectors. Tailored strategies are included to leverage the City’s unique strengths in the se
industries.
Industry
Rancho
Cucamonga
Jobs
Share of
Rancho
Cucamonga
Jobs
Rancho
Cucamonga/San
Bernardino
County LQ1
Manufacturing Industries
Advanced Manufacturing 1,974 3.2% 2.7
Medical Manufacturing 1,955 3.2% 5.8
Food and Beverage Manufacturing 1,398 2.3% 1.3
Office Industries
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 5,789 9.4% 3.3
Professional Services2 2,707 4.4% 2.7
Source: Data Axel, 2022; QCEW, 2021.
Note:
1 Location Quotient (LQ) is a measure of how concentrated an industry is relative to a larger geography .
The LQ shown here represents the concentration of jobs in the City compared to San Bernardino County. A
location quotient of greater than 1.0 means an industry is concentrated in an area while a location quotient
of less than 1.0 means an industry is not concentrated in an area.
2 Health services jobs are not included in the data shown here. Medical service jobs are somewhat less
concentrated in the City compared to San Bernardino County, but the sector is growing in Rancho
Cucamonga and the City is committed to expanding this growth.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 8
Advanced Manufacturing
Advanced manufacturing is characterized by manufacturing
activity involving innovative technologies and requiring skilled
workers with technical knowledge and training. Advanced
manufacturers span industries that include the production of
aerospace equipment, medical devices, and computer
components.
In Rancho Cucamonga, there are approximately 2,000
advanced manufacturing jobs in the City (excluding medical
manufacturing jobs, which is included as its own target
industry sector in the EDS).
Aerospace and electric vehicles are among the advanced
manufacturing industries with opportunities to grow in the
City. The manufacturing of electric vehicles could be well
suited to Rancho Cucamonga due to the City’s location near
complimentary electric vehicle businesses in Los Angeles,
Irvine, and San Diego, and the City’s proximity to areas that
are rich with rare earth minerals. Rancho Cucamonga is
already home to several aerospace manufacturing
companies, the largest of which include Air Components Inc,
Hartwell Corporation, and Pneudraulics Inc. Among
electronic manufacturers, the City’s largest employers
include Arlon Electronic Materials, Celco-Pacific Division,
and VPG Transducers.
Top Advanced Manufacturers in Rancho Cucamonga3
• Consolidated Precision Products
• Pneudraulics Inc.
• Arlon Electronic Materials
Medical Manufacturing
In Southern California, pharmaceutical manufacturing forms a significant share of the region’s economy
with the largest concentrations of employment in Orange County and Los Angeles County. Medical
manufacturing can generally be considered advanced manufacturing, but on its own, it represents a
significant number of jobs (approximately 2,000 jobs) in the City of Rancho Cucamonga and is highly
concentrated in the City relative to San Bernardino County. The industry involves the production of medical
equipment and medicine. Amphastar Pharmaceuticals is the City’s largest medical manufacturer and one
of the City’s largest employers. Other significant employers include medical device and surgical instrument
manufacturers such as Comar, Eagle Labs, and Mediflex Inc. The concentrated presence of medical
manufacturing in the City indicates the likelihood of a local business ecosystem involving complementary
businesses and educated talent that could be leveraged for future growth in this sector.
3 Based on employment size provided by Data Axel (2022).
Aerospace in the Region
Southern California is home to most of the
State’s advanced manufacturing companies.
Los Angeles County accounts for half of
California’s aircraft, engine, and parts
manufacturing industry establishments, and
Orange County follows with nearly a quarter
of total establishments. San Bernardino
County accounts for the third largest
concentration of firms in the State, containing
approximately seven percent of firms.
In San Bernardino County several aerospace
companies have found success, attributing
their companies’ achievements to the
County’s business friendliness, competitive
cost structure and logistics network, and
presence of skilled engineers from nearby
universities. Favorable year-round weather
for flying and access to a workforce
specialized in aerospace also makes
Southern California and San Bernardino
County attractive to aerospace companies.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 9
Top Medical Manufacturers in Rancho Cucamonga
• Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc
• Comar
• Eagle Labs
Food and Beverage Manufacturing
Los Angeles and Orange County are major centers for food and beverage manufacturing in California, and
in San Bernardino County there are over 300 food and beverage manufacturing companies. Food and
beverage manufacturing is a unique segment of Rancho Cucamonga’s manufacturing sector that contains
about 1,400 jobs and is concentrated in the City relative to San Bernardino County, which itself contains a
large amount of activity in the sector.
Frito Lay Inc., Coca-Cola Bottling Co, Cerenzia Foods Inc, and Evolution Fresh are among the City’s largest
food and beverage manufacturers. Mizkan America and Nongshim USA are examples of international
manufacturers that employ a significant number of workers in the city. This sector also includes several
breweries that provide the added benefit of being an attractive amenity and potential regional destination
in Rancho Cucamonga. While there is currently some wine-related production in the City, Rancho
Cucamonga has a history of winemaking, and the growth of wineries in the City could complement the
City’s growth of breweries.
Top Food and Beverage Manufacturers in Rancho Cucamonga
• Frito Lay Inc.
• Coca-Cola Bottling Co
• Nongshim USA
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
Rancho Cucamonga has a high concentration of the region’s finance, insurance, and real estate industry
(sometimes referred to as FIRE industries) employment. There are approximately 5,800 FIRE jobs in the
City that account for 9.4 percent of total employment. Insurance-related activity accounts for about half of
the FIRE jobs in Rancho Cucamonga, of which are employed at offices of national insurance providers
such as First American Title and CorVel Corporation, and in small to medium-sized insurance broker firms.
In addition to several national banking branches, a large portion of the finance-related companies in Rancho
Cucamonga are small mortgage lenders, portfolio management, and investment firms. Among real estate-
related firms, most in the city are medium to small offices of real estate agents and brokers.
Top Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Companies in Rancho Cucamonga
• Inland Empire Health Plan
• First American Title
• CorVel Corporation
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 10
Professional and Medical Services
Professional service firms range from engineering and design companies to legal and accounting firms.
Rancho Cucamonga has approximately 2,700 professional service jobs, which accounts for five percent of
total employment. Rancho Cucamonga represents a hub for professional services in the region. The
professional service industry complements other target industries such as advanced manufacturing through
related research and administrative activity. Large professional service employers in the City include
aerospace and engineering companies such as CDM Smith and Atlas Testing Laboratories. Rancho
Cucamonga’s professional services industry also consists of several small, local offices that provide legal,
tax, and design services that serve the local and regional community. Medical service jobs are part of a
significant and expanding healthcare and social assistance sector in the City and include offices of
physicians, dentists, and other healthcare professionals.4
Top companies in Rancho Cucamonga
• CDM Smith
• Atlas Testing Laboratories
• Advanced Office
Goals and Strategies
The ultimate goal of the EDS is to help establish Rancho
Cucamonga as the cultural and economic hub of the Inland
Empire. To accomplish this, the EDS establishes four
guiding goals, which include:
1. Grow and Diversify the City’s Economy
2. Enhance the Quality of Life
3. Expand Retail, Entertainment, and Hospitality
4. Foster Growth of Local Businesses and Workforce
These goals organize the EDS’s strategies, which provide
more specific guidance to the City through a series of
actions.
4 Health services jobs are somewhat less concentrated in the City compared to San Bernardino County, but the sector
is growing in Rancho Cucamonga and the City is committed to expanding this growth.
The ultimate goal of the EDS is to
help establish Rancho
Cucamonga as the cultural and
economic hub of the Inland
Empire.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 11
1. Grow and Diversify the City’s Economy
1.1 Grow the City’s target industry sectors
The target industry sectors in Rancho Cucamonga include those that employ a significant number of
workers, are highly concentrated in the City, and are well-positioned to grow and increase the value
of sectors that lead the City’s economy. The target industry sectors include advanced manufacturing;
medical manufacturing; food and beverage manufacturing; finance, insurance, and real estate; and
professional services.
Action 1.1A Coordinate with San Bernardino County’s Economic Development
Department to recruit new companies. San Bernadino County’s Economic
Development Department assists companies with locating within the County.
Coordinate with the County to help match employers with strategic locations in
Rancho Cucamonga.
Action 1.1B Coordinate with the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic
Development (GO-Biz) to recruit new companies. GO-Biz provides consultation
services to business owners including site selection at no cost. Coordinate with
GO-Biz to help match employers with strategic locations in Rancho Cucamonga.
Action 1.1C Connect new businesses with resources from the State. The State of
California offers resources such as tax credits to businesses that want to locate in
California or stay and grow in California. Promote available resources to
businesses as part of efforts to recruit businesses to the City.
Action 1.1D Recruit new businesses in the City’s target industry sectors. Work internally
and with partners to identify companies in the target industries that are well-
matched for Rancho Cucamonga and engage in outreach to these businesses.
Action 1.1E Convene working meetings with local business representatives from
industries in the City’s target industries. Use meetings to foster relationships
with the Economic Development Division and peer companies and to learn about
challenges and opportunities to support target industry businesses in the City.
Action 1.1F Complete a comprehensive review of the fee structure and cost of doing
business in Rancho Cucamonga. Compare Rancho Cucamonga’s fees and
development process to peer and competitor cities to ensure the City’s competitive
position is maintained.
1.2 Market to businesses the advantages of locating in the City
Rancho Cucamonga is an ideal location for many businesses. The advantages of locating in the City
should be clearly defined and available to employers look ing to start or relocate their business.
Action 1.2A Develop materials that market advantages for locating in Rancho
Cucamonga. Rancho Cucamonga has many attractive qualities for businesses
such as access to high-quality transportation, skilled and educated talent, and
educational opportunities. The City also features a high quality built enviro nment,
attractive master planned neighborhoods, and affordable real estate. Making
materials will provide a special focus on the City’s target industry sectors when
crafting promotional materials to aid in business recruitment.
Action 1.2B Continue to regularly update “Rancho Cucamonga at a Glance” and “Retail
Opportunity” marketing materials. The City currently publishes documents that
promote the City’s demographics as they related to economic vibrancy. Continue
to update these materials regularly and make them available on the Economic
Development Division’s webpage.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 12
Action 1.2C Develop promotional materials on the Economic Development Division
webpage that profiles the City’s access to nature and community parks.
Rancho Cucamonga has access to scenic nature and outdoor recreational spaces
such as the North Etiwanda Preserve, Etiwanda Falls Trail, San Bernardino
National Forest, hillside open spaces, multipurpose trails, and equestrian trails.
Develop marketing materials that promote the City’s access to nature and outdoor
recreation. Also include information that informs businesses and residents about
environmental policies and initiatives, future new green space, and outdoor
recreational infrastructure.
Action 1.2D Implement the Marketing and Communications Plan. The Economic
Development Division has completed a Strategic Marketing and Communications
Plan that complements the Economic Development Strategy. The Marketing and
Communications Plan further strengthens the economic development function for
the City of Rancho Cucamonga.
1.3 Recruit and retain international companies
Rancho Cucamonga is an attractive location for international manufacturing companies for many
reasons including the City’s proximity to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and the City’s
access to highways that allows convenient shipping around the U.S. and to Canada and Mexico.
Two of Rancho Cucamonga’s largest food manufacturing firms, Mizkan America and Nongshim USA
are international companies based in Asia. The City is also home to a Mission Foods facility, a
subsidiary of Mexico-based, global food company, Gruma. Additionally, several international
aerospace companies are based in San Bernardino County.
Action 1.3A Connect businesses with resources through the San Bernardino County
Economic Development Department. The County offers services to inform
businesses about opportunities to expand markets on a global scale and attract
investment from abroad.
Action 1.3B Connect businesses with resources from State, and International & Trade
programs. GO-Biz manages international business programs such as the
California STEP program, which offers financial assistance to eligible California
small businesses pursuing export sales in foreign markets.
Action 1.3C Develop an international marketing program to attract foreign businesses.
Create an international marketing program that includes training events for local
businesses, City staff, and other stakeholders to engage with foreign companies.
The marketing program will provide a special focus on the City’s target industries.
1.4 Connect businesses with commercial space opportunities in the City
Rancho Cucamonga’s Economic Development staff currently assists businesses with the process of
finding a suitable location in the City. Additional efforts to attract and assist companies considering
relocating to Rancho Cucamonga may increase the number of businesses locating in the City.
Action 1.4A Continue support for the “Site Selection Assistance” service in the City and
enhance the promotion of the service. Assign site selection assistance to
specific staff members and include brief bios of the staff that are inv olved with site
selection to foster the feeling of a personal experience.
Action 1.4B Maintain customer service orientation in the “Site Selection Assistance”
service. The City will allocate resources to provide customized and attentive
services to requests for location assistance in the City.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 13
Action 1.4C Prepare a “viewbook” promoting a range of commercial space examples
available in the City. Create a viewbook that highlights a selection of high quality
available commercial space in the City and how the City’s quality of life can
contribute to opportunities and benefits for business owners and employees in
terms of the local business environment and lifestyle. Ensure the viewbook is
provided online and as a printout.
Action 1.4D Market vacant office, retail, and industrial spaces on the City’s website.
Provide a comprehensive inventory of vacant commercial spaces on the City’s
Economic Development Division webpage. City staff will benchmark efforts against
competitor cities.
Action 1.4E Build relationships with Real Estate Brokers and Site Selection Companies.
Continue to work with the commercial brokerage community and site selection
companies to identify trends, conflicts, and development opportunities. Work with
the local brokerage community to actively market and identify users for infill
redevelopment sites and development projects throughout the City.
1.5 Support the construction and redevelopment of commercial properties
Office, retail, and industrial real estate markets in Rancho Cucamonga have performed well in recent
years and are competitive compared to the local region. Help facilitate building and redevelopment
in the City to ensure it does not impede attracting and retaining businesses.
Action 1.5A Continue to address small discrepancies in the development process as they
occur and review the current development approval process to remove
barriers and improve efficiency. Designate specific duties to department staff to
coordinate with other city departments to resolve challenges as they occur and
develop an internal report recommending systemic changes.
Action 1.5B Explore opportunities for the redevelopment of sites. Identify vacant and
underused properties for potential redevelopment and conduct outreach to
property owners to explore conversion and redevelopment opportunities.
Coordinate with action items focused on key sectors. These e fforts will support the
City’s ongoing General Plan and Zoning Code updates as needed.
Action 1.5C Solicit feedback from commercial developers. Convene a group of local
commercial real estate developers to promote the City’s goals for real estate
development and to learn more about challenges and opportunities for developing
properties in the City.
Action 1.5D Solicit feedback from real estate professionals. Convene a group of local real
estate professionals to educate the broker community on the City’s vision, and
enhance collaboration and information sharing.
Action 1.5E Explore potential incentives for encouraging redevelopment. Explore financial
incentives such as tax abatement programs and nonfinancial incentives such as
permit streamlining to encourage property owners to redevelop vacant and
underused properties.
2. Enhance the Quality of Life
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 14
2.1 Establish and promote the City’s Downtown
location
The City’s General Plan explores “the potential of the
area around Victoria Gardens and the Epicenter to
become the ‘real downtown’ of Rancho Cucamonga.”
While the General Plan focuses on physical cha nges and
infrastructure, other efforts can help establish the City’s
Downtown identity such as branding and coordinating
community events in the Downtown.
Action 2.1A Create an internal understanding of
the City’s Downtown location.
Develop and circulate an internal
memo describing the approximate
location of the City’s Downtown.
Action 2.1B Promote placemaking and
walkability. Encourage pedestrian,
building frontage, and other
improvements that enhance the public
realm as described in the City’s
General Plan.
Action 2.1C Locate community events and
public art in the Downtown area.
Explore locations for community events
to occur in the City’s Downtown.
Consider relocating existing events to a
location in the City’s Downtown. Work
with RC Public Art to explore options
for adding public art to the Downtown
area. The RC Public Art Plan calls for
prioritizing key areas in the City, such
as the Downtown, to locate murals and
mosaics. The RC Public Art Plan also
includes strategies for creating an art
walk program and commissioning
public works of art, which could be
located in the Downtown.
Action 2.1D Update signage promoting the
location of the City’s Downtown.
Commission the creation of signage
that communicates the location of the
City’s Downtown.
2.2 Promote and grow the HART District
The City’s General Plan envisions the HART District as an intense, mixed-use regional transit hub
with a dynamic mix of housing, employment, and supporting commercial development. Within the
District, the Cucamonga Station will connect travelers with the Brightline West high-speed rail line,
an underground loop to the Ontario International Airport, expanded Metrolink connections, and
several other transit options.
Cucamonga Station
The planned Cucamonga Station will be
located in the City’s HART District and serve
as a regional transit hub. The Station will
connect several transit systems including:
⦁ Brightline West high-speed rail
⦁ Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and local bus
service provided by Omnitrans
⦁ A tunnel loop to Ontario International
Airport
⦁ Taxis and Ride-share services
⦁ 6th Street bicycle track
High-Speed Rail (Brightline West)
Brightline West, a 260-mile privately funded
high-speed rail system, will connect Las
Vegas and Rancho Cucamonga with the
Cucamonga Station serving as the Greater
Los Angeles terminal. From the terminal in
Rancho Cucamonga, passengers will be
able to transfer from the Brightline to the
Rancho Cucamonga Metrolink Station.
Trains will travel at an expected top speed of
180 miles per hour and feature amenities
such as WiFi, food and beverages, checked
luggage, and hotel check-in services.
Connection to Ontario International Airport
In 2022, service commenced on a shuttle
service, ONT Connect, which takes
passengers from the Rancho Cucamonga
Metrolink Station to the Ontario International
Airport. In the future, a 2.8-mile tunnel is
planned to connect from the Cucamonga
Station to Ontario International Airport.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 15
Action 2.2A Establish and promote the identity of the HART District. Create messaging to
include in promotional materials and business recruitment efforts that describe the
future improvements in the HART District and the advantages of living and working
in the District such as its proximity to the Cucamonga Station, which connects
Rancho Cucamonga to the surrounding region through Metrolink and the
forthcoming high-speed rail line and to the world via its connection to the Ontario
International Airport. Conduct outreach to property owners within the HART District
informing them of the HART District’s boundaries and future improvements in the
area.
Action 2.2B Convene transportation agencies and providers. Organize meetings with
transportation agencies and providers to discuss future transportation
improvements and future development in the HART District.
Action 2.2C Develop a specific plan for the HART District. Coordinate the process for
creating a specific plan that will guide the growth of the HART District.
2.3 Host and sponsor community and special events
Community events can contribute to the vibrancy and sense of place in a community. They can also
attract visitors and serve as a low barrier to entry for new retailers and food vendors. Strengthen and
expand events and opportunities for community members, businesses and visitors to engage with
local businesses.
Action 2.3A Explore opportunities to host or sponsor community events. Explore
opportunities to host or organize events that highlight the history and culture of
Rancho Cucamonga, and that have the potential to become iconic representations
of the City. Examples include outdoor recreational activities such as community
bike events and running events (5Ks, 10Ks, and marathons), in addition to family -
fun and entertainment events that feature or combine live music, food trucks,
mobile vendors, classic cars, theatre, and art.
Action 2.3B Continue to review permitting, fees, and insurance requirements for
community event hosts and vendors. Review City requirements to ensure they
are not a barrier for hosts and vendors.
2.4 Explore potential locations in the City that may benefit from enhanced
revenues and services
Evaluate sections in the City that can benefit from investments and improvements made that will
generate a greater economic benefit for the community, develop new employment opportunities, and
contribute to the City’s quality of life.
Action 2.4A Identify current and future locations that may benefit from enhanced
services. Explore locations that could benefit from enhanced services and future
areas of growth in the City.
Action 2.4B Explore the potential for existing revenue sources and service districts.
Analyze revenue sources and identify new funding opportunities.
Action 2.4C Engage local businesses about the need for public-private collaboration for
business community improvements. Collaborate with local businesses and
property owners to encourage renewed investment, where it makes the most
sense, with consideration for the environment and quality of life of surrounding
neighborhoods.
2.5 Promote the City’s historic cultural resources
The City’s General Plan expresses a commitment to recognizing, protecting, and maintaining Rancho
Cucamonga’s past. Historical monuments can serve as a visitor attraction and contribute to the sense
of place, authenticity, and culture in a community.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 16
Action 2.5A Market historic resources in the City. Integrate historical monuments and
cultural resources in marketing materials and explore collaborations with
community events.
Action 2.5B Secure historical status for qualifying sites. As part of the City’s recent General
Plan update, the City identified several historical sites across the City. Secure
National Register of Historic Places and California Register of Historical Resources
status for historical sites and monuments identified by the City that qualify for these
historical designations.
3. Expand Retail, Entertainment, and Hospitality
3.1 Explore opportunities for retail business recruitment
Rancho Cucamonga has a strong retail sector. Restaurant and food and beverage sales perform
particularly well in Rancho Cucamonga compared to San Bernardino County overall. However,
Rancho Cucamonga is less competitive relative to the County in certain retail categories such as
clothing apparel, automotive-related products and services, health and personal care stores, and
other miscellaneous retail.
Action 3.1A Compare the City’s existing retail inventory to the retail businesses the City
aims to attract. Individual retailers have specific site location requirements such
as the size and quality of spaces for lease. Review existing retail inventory to
determine the ability of existing spaces to satisfy size and quality requirements for
retailers.
Action 3.1B Commission a retail leakage study. Residents in Rancho Cucamonga are
traveling outside the City to make certain purchases. Commission a retail leakage
study to determine which types of retail Rancho Cucamonga residents typically
purchase outside the City and should be targeted for recruitment.
3.2 Cultivate a cluster of breweries, wineries, and tasting rooms in the City
Clusters of breweries, wineries, and tasting rooms can serve as a regional destination that brings
visitors to a City. Rancho Cucamonga currently has several breweries concentrated in the center of
the City, south of Foothill Blvd and northwest of the HART District. These breweries form a part of
the City’s concentration of food and beverage manufacturers and benefit from the City’s
specialization in this sector.
Action 3.2A Promote and support the City’s cluster of breweries. Create an identity for the
area where the City’s breweries are clustered. Engage local breweries and connect
them with events to vendor and sponsor in Rancho Cucamonga.
Action 3.2B Recruit and support breweries, wineries, and tasting rooms. Identify
breweries, wineries, and tasting rooms, and perform outreach to recruit new
businesses to Rancho Cucamonga.
3.3 Attract restaurants to the City that are destination driven
Rancho Cucamonga’s restaurant base serves our residents, the local workforce and visitors to the
City. Identify entrepreneurs elsewhere in Southern California that already operate restaurants, and
successful local restaurant owners looking to reposition or expand upon their existing operations.
Action 3.3A Retain and recruit a healthy and diverse mix of restaurants throughout the
City. Work with restaurant owners and operators to identify and develop sites for
new sit-down restaurants that create a sense of place.
Action 3.3B Explore options that might be available for restaurants in retail centers.
Identify existing commercial property centers to create more attainable restaurant
opportunities.
3.4 Explore opportunities to expand hospitality in the City
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 17
The City continues to leverage the hospitality demand for business and leisure travelers. The nearby
Ontario International Airport has been expanding flight services, and the City is located along several
freeways and local and regional attractions.
Action 3.4A Explore future hospitality opportunities in the HART District. The HART
District is positioned to be a major regional transportation hub, including a high-
speed rail line to Las Vegas. The HART District is also located near freeway access
and entertainment options to the north in the City’s Downtown and south along
Fourth Street.
Action 3.4B Identify future hospitality opportunities around Victoria Gardens and Civic
Center. The City will identify sites that may be suitable for the development of a
new hotel property around Victoria Gardens and Civic Center.
Action 3.4C Attract boutique, high-end and luxury hotels. Review the development code
and identify updates that can facilitate boutique, high-end and luxury hotel
developments in the City.
4. Foster Growth of Local Businesses and Workforce
4.1 Expand higher education institutions in the City
Rancho Cucamonga is home to Chaffey College and a satellite campus of the University of
Redlands. Residents and employers in the City also have access to several other colleges and
universities such as UC Riverside, Cal Poly Pomona, UC San Bernardino, San Bernardino Valley
College, University of La Verne, Claremont Colleges, and other technical schools in the area.
Action 4.1A Strengthen partnerships with local higher education institutions. Establish
regular meetings with workforce development staff at Chaffey College, The
University of Redlands Rancho Cucamonga Campus, and other educational
organizations to explore opportunities to collaborate on workforce development.
Use meetings to explore opportunities to connect students with learning and
employment opportunities in the City with a particular focus on the City’s target
industries sectors.
Action 4.1B Foster relationships with nearby colleges and universities. Build a working
relationship with other colleges and universities such as Cal Poly Pomona and UC
Riverside to explore opportunities to collaborate on workforce development and
potential satellite expansions in Rancho Cucamonga.
4.2 Cultivate local innovation
Startups and innovative local companies can create new ideas and spur economic growth in a
community. Young and bootstrapped companies can benefit from Rancho Cucamonga’s lower land
and living costs compared to more costly nearby metro areas and coastal cities. The relatively
smaller population and employment base size in Rancho Cucamonga also offers more visibility in
the community for growing companies than in large metro areas.
Action 4.2A Explore partnerships with universities and organizations to support the
creation of incubators and business accelerator programs. Identify partners
in the region interested in establishing incubators and business accelerators in
Rancho Cucamonga.
Action 4.2B Host networking events for local businesses and entrepreneurs . Assist in
creating a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem by connecting entrepreneurs with
each other. Explore opportunities to host or co-host existing events with partners.
Consider resources that the City can leverage such as facilities to host events.
4.3 Provide support for small businesses
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 18
Most businesses in Rancho Cucamonga are small businesses with 10 or fewer employees. The City
can foster local culture and economic growth by supporting locally grown businesses that are unique
to Rancho Cucamonga.
Action 4.3A Establish a small business outreach program. Continue to partner with the
Rancho Chamber of Commerce and the Inland Empire Small Business
Development Center (IESBDC) to conduct regular outreach to small businesses.
Action 4.3B Connect small businesses with resources and technical assistance. Provide
resources on the Economic Development Division webpage for small businesses
such as a guide to opening a business in Rancho Cucamonga and contact
information for Economic Development staff who can provide individual support.
Provide links to external resources such as USA.gov and the Inland Empire Small
Business Development Center for tools for starting a business, and include
information about available federal, state, and private loans and grants for small
businesses.
Action 4.3C Establish a small business loan program. Establish a loan fund for existing and
new small businesses that do not have access to other loan and grant programs.
Explore opportunities to collaborate with organizations interested in funding small
local businesses.
4.4 Enhance data collection to track business activity in the City
Data on local business activity is helpful for under standing trends and challenges and opportunities
for business growth in the City.
Action 4.4A Ensure access to state-of-the-art telecommunications. Establish regular
monitoring of access to telecommunications, such as internet quality, in the City
and emerging technologies available in comparable communities to ensure the
City stays competitive regarding access to quality telecommunication services.
Action 4.4B Use the business licensing program to facilitate the collection of
employment and other data about local companies. This data will be used to
improve understanding of the number of businesses relocating and expanding
within City limits.
Action 4.4C Develop an annual or biannual local business survey. Develop a short survey
that will solicit information about challenges and opportunities from local
businesses operating in the City.
4.5 Connect students, job seekers, and employers with workforce development
opportunities
The City can help facilitate employment pipelines by connecting students , workers, and employers
with resources and events that provide networking and training opportunities. These initiatives
support the business attraction efforts and create a future workforce pipeline.
Action 4.5A Explore hosting or connecting students and job seekers with industry-
specific events. Explore opportunities to host or connect workers with events
related to the City’s target industries. Some examples may include events regularly
organized by the Manufacturers’ Council of the Inland Empire (MCIE) or
Manufacturing Day by the Manufacturing Institute, which aims to introduce
students to learning opportunities and to connect job seekers with manufacturing
employers.
Action 4.5B Connect employers with the San Bernardino County Workforce
Development Department. The County offers support to employers for hiring new
employees and training, including on-the-job training, which the County may cover
a portion of the funding. Market the available support from the County to existing
and potential new businesses.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 19
Action 4.5C Create stronger links between local employers, education and service
providers, and residents. Develop partnerships to facilitate increased
communication and collaboration between service providers and employers.
Looking Ahead
Over the past 40 years, the City of Rancho Cucamonga has grown i nto the premier city in the Inland Empire,
featuring a skilled workforce, strong manufacturing sector, high quality housing stock and growing office -
based sectors. The City’s success is in large part due to its adherence to high standards regarding the
quality of new development and public spaces, and reinforcing a strong sense of place.
Serving as a blueprint for the future and complementing the General Plan, the EDS will advance the long -
term vision of making Rancho Cucamonga the cultural and economic hub of the Inland Empire.
The aspirational goals set in this EDS position the City for long -term success. Achieving these results
requires an ongoing commitment from all levels of City government and community members. Building
upon that foundation, longer-range goals include:
• Strengthen the City’s sense of identity and character by creating places where people want to be
and improving their ability to move around;
• Develop a civic and economic culture that provides entrepreneurs and business owners access to
resources needed to start up and stay in business;
• Create an urban fabric of accessible community gathering spaces and active building fronts;
• Grow the arts, cultural, and creative industries cluster to provide social value to residents, while
helping with job creation and prosperity in our local economy;
• Create a cluster of eatertainment (eateries and entertainment) opportunities that connect the HART
District, Epicenter and Victoria Gardens;
• Establish the City as a place of opportunity with a vibrant base of creative businesses, cultural
institutions, entertainment venues, and homegrown talent;
• Build a strong economy that maximizes opportunities for business and employment growth,
innovation and partnership; and
• Grow new businesses that provide an increasing number and diversity of employment opportunities
compatible within a mixed-use, transit-oriented employment district environment.
Rancho Cucamonga is suited for economic growth and investment. As the City moves forward in its
innovative programs, services and long-range goals, the City will continue to be equally forward thinking in
a strategic approach to all future development and investment.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 20
Implementation Plan
This section describes the 5-year work plan for implementing the EDS. Actions are divided into three time
periods: 1 year, 2-3 years, and 4-5 years. The work plan also identifies the lead department and assisting
partners.
Action Lead Department Partners Timeline
1. Grow and Diversify the City’s Economy
1.1 Grow the City’s target industry sectors
1.1A Coordinate with San
Bernardino County’s Economic
Development Department to
recruit new companies.
Economic
Development
Division
San Bernardino County
Economic Development
Department
1
Year
1.1B Coordinate with the
Governor’s Office of Business
and Economic Development
(GO-Biz) to recruit new
companies.
Economic
Development
Division
GO-Biz 1
Year
1.1C Connect new businesses
with resources from the State.
Economic
Development
Division
GO-Biz 1
Year
1.1D Recruit new businesses in
the City’s target industry sectors.
Economic
Development
Division
Rancho Cucamonga
Chamber of Commerce 2-3
Years
1.1E Convene working meetings
with local business
representatives from industries in
the City’s target industries.
Economic
Development
Division
Rancho Cucamonga
Chamber of Commerce 2-3
Years
1.1F Complete a comprehensive
review of the fee structure and
cost of doing business in Rancho
Cucamonga.
Economic
Development
Division
Rancho Cucamonga
Chamber of Commerce 2-3
Years
1.2 Market to businesses the advantages of locating in the City
1.2A Develop materials that
market advantages for locating in
Rancho Cucamonga.
Economic
Development
Division
1
Year
1.2B Continue to regularly
update “Rancho Cucamonga at a
Glance” and “Retail Opportunity”
marketing materials.
Economic
Development
Division
1
Year
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 21
Action Lead Department Partners Timeline
1.2C Develop promotional
materials on the Economic
Development Division webpage
that profiles the City’s access to
nature and community parks.
Economic
Development
Division
Community Services
Department
1
Year
1.2D Implement the Marketing
and Communications Plan.
Economic
Development
Division
Community Services
Department
1
Year
1.3 Recruit and retain international companies
1.3A Connect businesses with
resources through the San
Bernardino County Economic
Development Department.
Economic
Development
Division
San Bernardino County
Economic Development
Department
1
Year
1.3B Connect businesses with
resources from State, and
International & Trade Programs.
Economic
Development
Division
GO-Biz 1
Year
1.3C Develop an international
marketing program to attract
foreign businesses.
Economic
Development
Division
Rancho Cucamonga
Chamber of Commerce 4-5 Years
1.4 Connect businesses with commercial space opportunities in the City
1.4A Continue support for the
“Site Selection Assistance”
service in the City and enhance
the promotion of the service.
Economic
Development
Division
1
Year
1.4B Maintain customer service
orientation in the “Site Selection
Assistance” service.
Economic
Development
Division
1
Year
1.4C Prepare a “viewbook”
promoting a range of commercial
space examples available in the
City.
Economic
Development
Division
2-3
Years
1.4D Market vacant office, retail,
and industrial spaces on the
City’s website.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division 2-3
Years
1.4E Build relationships with Real
Estate Brokers and Site Selection
Companies.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division 2-3
Years
1.5 Support the construction and redevelopment of commercial properties
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 22
Action Lead Department Partners Timeline
1.5A Continue to address small
discrepancies in the development
process as they occur and review
the current development approval
process to remove barriers and
improve efficiency.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division 1
Year
1.5B Explore opportunities for the
redevelopment of sites.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division 2-3
Years
1.5C Solicit feedback from
commercial developers.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division 2-3
Years
1.5D Solicit feedback from real
estate professionals.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division 2-3
Years
1.5E Explore potential incentives
for encouraging redevelopment.
Economic
Development
Division
4-5 Years
2. Enhance the Quality of Life
2.1 Establish and promote the City’s Downtown location
2.1A Create an internal
understanding of the City’s
Downtown location.
Planning Division Economic Development
Division
1
Year
2.1B Promote placemaking and
walkability. Planning Division Economic Development
Division
1
Year
2.1C Locate community events
and public art in the Downtown
area.
Economic
Development
Division
Community Services
Department, RC Public
Art
2-3
Years
2.1D Update signage promoting
the location of the City’s
Downtown.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division, RC
Public Art 4-5 Years
2.2 Promote and grow the HART District
2.2A Establish and promote the
identity of the HART District. Planning Division Economic Development
Division 2-3
Years
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 23
Action Lead Department Partners Timeline
2.2B Convene transportation
agencies and providers. Planning Division
Economic Development
Division, SBCTA,
Metrolink, Brightline
West
2-3
Years
2.2C Develop a specific plan for
the HART District. Planning Division 4-5 Years
2.3 Host and sponsor community and special events
2.3A Explore opportunities to
host or sponsor community
events.
Economic
Development
Division
Community Services
Department 2-3
Years
2.3B Continue to review
permitting, fees, and insurance
requirements for community
event hosts and vendors.
Economic
Development
Division
Community Services
Department, RC Public
Art
2-3
Years
2.4 Explore potential locations in the City that may benefit from enhanced
revenues and services
2.4A Identify current and future
locations that may benefit from
enhanced services.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division 2-3
Years
2.4B Explore the potential for
existing revenue sources and
service districts.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division 4-5 Years
2.4C Engage local businesses
about the need for public-private
collaboration for business
community improvements.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division 4-5 Years
2.5 Promote the City’s historic cultural resources
2.5A Market historic resources in
the City.
Economic
Development
Division
Planning Division 1
Year
2.5B Secure historical status for
qualifying sites. Planning Division Etiwanda Historical
Society 4-5 Years
3. Expand Retail, Entertainment, and Hospitality
3.1 Explore opportunities for retail business recruitment
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 24
Action Lead Department Partners Timeline
3.1A Compare the City’s existing
retail inventory to the retail
businesses the City aims to
attract.
Economic
Development
Division
2-3
Years
3.1B Commission a retail
leakage study.
Economic
Development
Division
4-5 Years
3.2 Cultivate a cluster of breweries, wineries, and tasting rooms in the City
3.2A Promote and support the
City’s cluster of breweries.
Economic
Development
Division
2-3
Years
3.2B Recruit and support
breweries, wineries, and tasting
rooms.
Economic
Development
Division
2-3
Years
3.3 Attract restaurants to the City that are destination driven
3.3A Retain and recruit a healthy
and diverse mix of restaurants
throughout the City.
Economic
Development
Division
2-3
Years
3.3B Explore options that might
be available for restaurants in
retail centers.
Economic
Development
Division
2-3
Years
3.4 Explore opportunities to expand hospitality in the City
3.4A Explore future hospitality
opportunities in the HART
District.
Economic
Development
Division
4-5 Years
3.4B Identify future hospitality
opportunities around Victoria
Gardens and Civic Center.
Economic
Development
Division
4-5 Years
3.4C Attract boutique, high-end
and luxury hotels.
Economic
Development
Division
4-5 Years
4. Foster Growth of Local Businesses and Workforce
4.1 Expand higher education institutions in the City
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 25
Action Lead Department Partners Timeline
4.1A Strengthen partnerships
with local higher education
institutions.
Economic
Development
Division
Partners: Chaffey
College, University of
Redlands Rancho
Cucamonga Campus
1
Year
4.1B Foster relationships with
nearby colleges and universities.
Economic
Development
Division
Partners: Cal Poly
Pomona, UC Riverside,
and other colleges and
universities
2-3
Years
4.2 Cultivate local innovation
4.2A Explore partnerships with
universities and organizations to
support the creation of incubators
and business accelerator
programs.
Economic
Development
Division
Inland Empire Center
for Entrepreneurship 2-3
Years
4.2B Host networking events for
local businesses and
entrepreneurs.
Economic
Development
Division
Rancho Cucamonga
Chamber of Commerce,
Inland Empire Center
for Entrepreneurship
2-3
Years
4.3 Provide support for small businesses
4.3A Establish a small business
outreach program.
Economic
Development
Division
Rancho Cucamonga
Chamber of Commerce,
Inland Empire Small
Business Development
Center (IESBDC)
2-3
Years
4.3B Connect small businesses
with resources and technical
assistance.
Economic
Development
Division
Rancho Cucamonga
Chamber of Commerce 2-3
Years
4.3C Establish a small business
loan program.
Economic
Development
Division
Rancho Cucamonga
Chamber of Commerce,
Inland Empire Small
Business Development
Center (IESBDC)
4-5 Years
4.4 Enhance data collection to track business activity in the City
4.4A Ensure access to state-of-
the-art telecommunications.
Economic
Development
Division
Public Works
Department
1
Year
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategy 2023 26
Action Lead Department Partners Timeline
4.4B Use the business licensing
program to facilitate the collection
of employment and other data
about local companies.
Economic
Development
Division
2-3
Years
4.4C Develop an annual or
biannual local business survey.
Economic
Development
Division
2-3
Years
4.5 Connect students, job seekers, and employers with workforce
development opportunities
4.5A Explore hosting or
connecting students and job
seekers with industry-specific
events.
Economic
Development
Division
Rancho Cucamonga
Chamber of Commerce,
Manufacturers’ Council
of the Inland Empire
(MCIE)
1
Year
4.5B Connect employers with the
San Bernardino County
Workforce Development
Department.
Economic
Development
Division
San Bernardino County
Workforce
Development
Department
1
Year
4.5C Create stronger links
between local employers,
education and service providers,
and residents.
Economic
Development
Division
San Bernardino County
Workforce
Development
Department
1
Year
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 1
Exhibit B
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 1
Introduction
This report describes the findings and analysis of the City of Rancho Cucamonga’s economic and market
conditions. The findings inform the Economic Development Strategic Plan (EDSP) and will provide relevant
insights on economic development and marketing opportunities in the City.
Key Findings
• Rancho Cucamonga’s population grew by 8.2 percent from 2010 to 2021, which is similar to the
rate of growth in San Bernardino County.
• Residents of Rancho Cucamonga are more educated compared to the local region. 37 percent of
residents hold a bachelor’s degree or higher compared to 22 percent of residents in San Bernardino
County overall.
• The population in Rancho Cucamonga is generally older compared to nearby cities. The median
age is 36.9 in Rancho Cucamonga and 33.8 in San Bernardino County.
• Incomes in Rancho Cucamonga are among the highest in the region. The median income in
Rancho Cucamonga is approximately $95,000 compared to approximately $70,300 for San
Bernardino County.
• Rancho Cucamonga has a moderately large employment base with 71,845 total jobs.
• Employment in Rancho Cucamonga has grown slower compared to nearby cities and San
Bernardino County. Between 2011 and 2019, employment in Rancho Cucamonga grew by 15
percent compared to 22 percent in the County.
• Most businesses in Rancho Cucamonga are small firms with 10 or fewer employees. There are an
estimated 2,387 businesses with 1 to 4 employees, and 1,156 businesses with 5 to 10 employees.
• Rancho Cucamonga’s largest industry is manufacturing. There are approximately 8,900
manufacturing jobs in Rancho Cucamonga, which account for 12.4 percent of the City’s total jobs.
• The fastest-growing industry in Rancho Cucamonga is finance and insurance, which grew by 150
percent from 2011 to 2019. This industry accounts for 7.7 percent of the City’s total employment.
• Finance and insurance, manufacturing, professional and technical services, real estate,
accommodation and food services are growing sectors in the County that are concentrated in
Rancho Cucamonga. Rancho Cucamonga may be well positioned to attract and grow these
industries that are expanding in the local region.
• Specialized industries that are well-positioned to grow and diversify Rancho Cucamonga’s
economy include advanced manufacturing; medical manufacturing; food and beverage
manufacturing; finance, insurance and real estate, and professional services.
• Rancho Cucamonga’s home prices are relatively high compared to prices in the local region but
are more attainable priced compared to the Los Angeles Metro Area and the State of California
overall.
• Rancho Cucamonga’s commercial land uses are performing better than in the County overall. The
City’s office, retail, and industrial rents are higher than the County’s, and vacancies are on par or
lower than in the County.
• Restaurant and food and beverage sales are stronger in Rancho Cucamonga compared to the
County.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 2
• Rancho Cucamonga is a highly attractive and competitive City compared to its neighbors. Key
indicators show Rancho Cucamonga is balanced well by a relatively large employment base, highly
educated residents, and residents with high incomes. From a regional perspective, Riverside and
Fontana may be the most competitive with Rancho Cucamonga for attracting residents and
employers. Redlands and Eastvale may also be competitive with Rancho Cucamonga for attracting
highly skilled workers.
Demographic and Household Conditions
This section describes the characteristics of Rancho Cucamonga’s population using data from the most
recent American Community Survey (ACS 2021, 5-year Estimate) and HUD’s Comprehensive Housing
Affordability Strategy (CHAS, 2019). The analysis compares Rancho Cucamonga with neighboring cities 1
and San Bernardino County, as well as comparable Southern California jurisdictions,2 to provide a relative
measure of conditions in Rancho Cucamonga.
Population and Households
Rancho Cucamonga has a population of 173,946 residents and 56,380 households. The City’s population
is slightly smaller than nearby Ontario (175,223) but has 5,000 more households. Table 1 shows how the
number of residents and households in Rancho Cucamonga’s population compares relative to neighboring
cities and Table 2 shows how the City compares to other comparable Southern California jurisdictions.
Figures 1 and 2 display population growth in Rancho Cucamonga and the neighboring cities and other
Southern California jurisdictions. Since 2010 Rancho Cucamonga’s population has grown by 8.2 percent,
which is similar to the San Bernardino County growth rate of 8.3 percent. Eastvale, which was incorporated
in 2010, has grown in population by nearly 40 percent since 2010. Irvine, which was identified in 2020 by
the U.S. Census as the 10th fastest-growing city in the country, experienced a major population increase of
nearly 50 percent since 2010.
1 Neighboring cities include the cities of Eastvale, Fontana, Ontario, Riverside, Redlands, and San Bernardino.
2 Comparable Southern California jurisdictions includes the cities of Irvine and Pasadena, and Los Angeles County.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 3
Table 1: Total Population and Households, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021.
Population Households
Riverside 314,858 88,340
San Bernardino 220,821 61,680
Fontana 208,087 55,307
Ontario 175,223 51,068
Rancho Cucamonga 173,946 56,380
Redlands 72,649 25,273
Eastvale 68,539 16,713
San Bernardino County 2,171,071 651,743
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est, 2021.
Table 2: Total Population and Households, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021.
Population Households
Irvine 297,868 107,166
Rancho Cucamonga 173,946 56,380
Pasadena 138,771 55,191
Los Angeles County 10,019,635 3,342,811
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est, 2021.
Figure 1: Population Growth, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2010 to 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2010, 2021.
39.5%
9.8%8.3%8.2%6.1%5.6%5.5%4.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Eastvale Fontana San
Bernardino
County
Rancho
Cucamonga
Ontario San
Bernardino
Redlands RiversidePopulation Growth
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 4
Figure 2: Population Growth, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2010 to 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2010, 2021
Race and Ethnicity
Tables 3 and 4 show the share of racial and ethnic groups in Rancho Cucamonga compared to neighboring
cities and comparable Southern California jurisdictions. The City’s racial and ethnic composition is fairly
similar to its neighboring communities. However, Rancho Cucamonga has a relatively higher percent non-
Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Asian populations and a lower Hispanic population than most neighboring
cities. Compared to other Southern California jurisdictions, Rancho Cucamonga has a somewhat lower
percentage of Non-Hispanic Asian population.
Table 3: Percentages of Race and Ethnicity, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021
Non-
Hispanic
White
Hispanic/
Latino
Non-Hispanic
Black/African
American
Non-
Hispanic
Asian
Other Race/
Ethnicity
Rancho Cucamonga 34% 38% 9% 14% 5%
Eastvale 22% 39% 7% 28% 4%
Fontana 13% 68% 8% 7% 3%
Ontario 15% 70% 5% 7% 3%
Redlands 44% 37% 6% 8% 5%
Riverside 28% 55% 5% 8% 4%
San Bernardino 14% 68% 12% 4% 3%
San Bernardino County 27% 55% 8% 7% 4%
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
49.6%
8.2%2.7%1.7%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Irvine Rancho Cucamonga Los Angeles County PasadenaPopulation Growth
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 5
Table 4: Percentages of Race and Ethnicity, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021
Non-
Hispanic
White
Hispanic/
Latino
Non-Hispanic
Black/African
American
Non-
Hispanic
Asian
Other Race/
Ethnicity
Rancho Cucamonga 34% 38% 9% 14% 5%
Irvine 37% 12% 2% 43% 6%
Pasadena 34% 36% 8% 18% 5%
Los Angeles County 25% 49% 8% 15% 4%
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Educational Attainment
Tables 5 and 6 show the educational attainment in Rancho Cucamonga compared to neighboring cities
and other Southern California jurisdictions. Figures 3 and 4 display the percentage of the population with a
bachelor’s degree or higher. Rancho Cucamonga residents are well-educated. 37 percent of residents have
a bachelor’s degree or higher, which is a higher share than most neighboring communities and lower than
Redlands and Eastvale. When compared to other jurisdictions in Southern California, Rancho
Cucamonga’s educational attainment is higher than Los Angeles County and less than the rates of a
bachelor’s degree or higher in Irvine and Pasadena.
Table 5: Percentages of Educational Attainment, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021
High School
Degree or
Less
Some
College
Bachelor's
Degree
Advanced
Degree
Rancho Cucamonga 27% 36% 23% 14%
Eastvale 29% 30% 29% 12%
Fontana 51% 30% 15% 5%
Redlands 29% 27% 22% 21%
Riverside 45% 31% 14% 10%
Ontario 51% 31% 14% 5%
San Bernardino 61% 27% 9% 4%
San Bernardino County 46% 32% 14% 8%
Note: Data universe includes the total population of 25 years or older.
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 6
Table 6: Percentages of Educational Attainment, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021
High School
Degree or
Less
Some
College
Bachelor's
Degree
Advanced
Degree
Rancho Cucamonga 27% 36% 23% 14%
Irvine 11% 20% 38% 31%
Pasadena 25% 22% 28% 25%
Los Angeles County 40% 26% 22% 12%
Note: Data universe includes the total population of 25 years or older.
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Figure 3: Percentages of Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021
Note: Data universe includes the total population of 25 years or older. Data represents those who have earned a
bachelor’s or an advanced degree such as a master’s or a PhD.
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Figure 4: Percentages of Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021
Note: Data universe includes the total population of 25 years or older. Data represents those who have earned a
bachelor’s or an advanced degree such as a master’s or a PhD.
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
44%41%37%
24%22%20%19%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Redlands Eastvale Rancho
Cucamonga
Riverside San
Bernardino
County
Fontana Ontario San
BernardinoShare of Population 25 years or Older69%
53%
37%34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Irvine Pasadena Rancho Cucamonga Los Angeles CountyShare of Population 25 years or Older
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 7
Age
Figures 5 and 6 show the median age in Rancho Cucamonga compared to the neighboring cities and other
Southern California jurisdictions. Figures 7 and 8 display the age distribution for each jurisdiction.
Compared to nearby communities, Rancho Cucamonga has the highest median age at 36.9 years. When
compared to other jurisdictions in Southern California, the City’s median age is similar to Los Angeles
County but less than Pasadena.
Compared to neighboring communities, Rancho Cucamonga has an older distribution of ages, with 40
percent of the population above the age of 45. When compared to comparable Southern California
communities, Los Angeles County and Pasadena have a similar share of residents over the age of 45 as
Rancho Cucamonga.
Figure 5: Median Age, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Figure 6: Median Age, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
36.9
35.5
34.2 33.8
32.6 32 31.9 31.3
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
35.0
36.0
37.0
38.0
Rancho
Cucamonga
Redlands Eastvale San
Bernardino
County
Ontario Fontana Riverside San
BernardinoMedian Age39.1
37.0 36.9
33.8
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
Pasadena Los Angeles County Rancho Cucamonga IrvineMedian Age
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 8
Figure 7: Percentages of Age Distribution, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Figure 8: Percentages of Age Distribution, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Income
Figures 9 and 10 show the median income in Rancho Cucamonga compared to the neighboring cities and
other comparable Southern California jurisdictions. Figures 11 and 12 break down the percentages of
households by income in each jurisdiction. Figures 13 and 14 further organize the households into income
categories as defined by the HUD Area Median Family Income (HAMFI).
At $97,046, Rancho Cucamonga’s median household income is higher compared to neighboring cities and
San Bernardino County. Only Eastvale has a higher median income of $141,827. When compared to other
comparable jurisdictions in Southern California, Rancho Cucamonga’s median income is higher than Los
Angeles County’s median income of $76,367 but lower than Irvine’s median income of $114,027. The
23%30%29%26%23%24%28%26%
9%9%11%11%11%14%11%10%
28%
30%29%31%28%29%30%28%
28%23%22%23%24%22%21%24%
13%8%8%10%14%11%9%12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rancho
Cucamonga
Eastvale Fontana Ontario Redlands Riverside San
Bernardino
San
Bernardino
CountyShare of Total PopulationUnder 18 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 and older
23%22%18%22%
9%12%7%9%
28%32%
34%30%
28%23%25%25%
13%10%16%14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rancho Cucamonga Irvine Pasadena Los Angeles CountyShare of Total PopulationUnder 18 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 and older
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 9
percentages of households by income generally corroborate the median income findings. 36 percent of
households in the City earn over $125,000 annually and 62 percent earn over $75,000. 12 percent of
Rancho Cucamonga’s households earn less than $30,000 annually. Eastvale and Irvine have the higher
percentage of households earning over $125,000. However, while Eastvale has the smallest percentage of
households earning less than $30,000 (5 percent), Irvine’s is higher than several jurisdictions, including
Rancho Cucamonga, at 16 percent of households earning less than $30,000 annually.
When using the HAMFI-defined income categories, Rancho Cucamonga has 63 percent of households in
the above moderate-income category and 16 percent of households in the very low-income category.
Compared to surrounding communities and San Bernardino County, only Eastvale has a higher percentage
of households in the above moderate-income category. When compared to other comparable jurisdictions
in Southern California however, Rancho Cucamonga has the highest percentage of households in the
above moderate-income category. All other jurisdictions have fewer than 50 percent of households in the
above moderate-income category.
Figure 9: Median Household Income, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Figure 10: Median Income, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
$141,827
$97,046 $87,184 $83,468 $76,755 $71,908 $70,287
$55,372
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
Eastvale Rancho
Cucamonga
Redlands Fontana Riverside Ontario San
Bernardino
County
San
BernardinoMedian Income $114,027
$97,046 $89,661
$76,367
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Irvine Rancho Cucamonga Pasadena LA CountyMedian Income
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 10
Figure 11: Percentages of Households by Income, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Figure 12: Percentages of Households by Income, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
12%5%14%17%16%18%27%19%
10%
6%
11%14%12%14%
19%
15%15%
11%
19%21%16%17%
19%
18%
26%
20%
27%
27%
25%24%
22%
24%
36%
57%
29%22%31%27%
13%23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rancho
Cucamonga
Eastvale Fontana Ontario Redlands Riverside San
Bernardino
San
Bernardino
CountyShare of Total HouseholdsLess than $30,000 $30,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $124,999 $125,000 or More
12%16%19%20%10%8%9%14%15%11%14%15%
26%19%
21%22%
36%46%36%29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rancho Cucamonga Irvine Pasadena Los Angeles CountyShare of Total HouseholdsLess than $30,000 $30,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $124,999 $125,000 or More
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 11
Figure 13: Percentages of Households by Income Category, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2019
Source: HUD, Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy, 5-Year Est. 2019.
Notes: Very low-income is defined as <=50% HAMFI, low-income is >50% to <=80% HAMFI, moderate-income is
>80% to <=100% HAMFI, above moderate-income is >100% HAMFI
Figure 14: Percentages of Households by Income Category, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2019
Source: HUD, Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy, 5-Year Est. 2019.
Notes: Very low-income is defined as <=50% HAMFI, low-income is >50% to <=80% HAMFI, moderate-income is
>80% to <=100% HAMFI, above moderate-income is >100% HAMFI
Household Characteristics
Figures 15 and 16 show the average household size in Rancho Cucamonga compared to the neighboring
cities and other comparable Southern California jurisdictions. Tables 7 and 8 break down the households
16%10%22%24%22%25%
40%27%
12%
11%
18%20%14%17%
21%
18%8%
8%
12%13%
10%11%
10%
11%
63%72%
48%43%53%47%
28%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rancho
Cucamonga
Eastvale Fontana Ontario Redlands Riverside San
Bernardino
San
Bernardino
CountyShare of Total HouseholdsVery low-income Low-income Moderate-income Above moderate-income
16%26%30%37%12%
14%15%
19%
8%
11%10%
10%
63%
49%46%35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rancho Cucamonga Irvine Pasadena Los Angeles CountyShare of Total HouseholdsVery low-income Low-income Moderate-income Above moderate-income
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 12
in the jurisdictions by type of living arrangement. Figures 17 and 18 display the percentages of households
by tenure in all jurisdictions.
Rancho Cucamonga has a relatively small household size when compared to the neighboring cities, with
only Riverside having a smaller average household size. However, when compared with other comparable
Southern California jurisdictions, Rancho Cucamonga’s average household size is larger than in Los
Angeles County, Pasadena, and Irvine.
Rancho Cucamonga’s largest category of household type is families without children at 41 percent, followed
by families with children at 36 percent. This differs from most of the neighboring cities and San Bernardino
County where families with children comprise a larger percentage of households than families without
children. The only other outlier is Redlands, which has 1 percentage point more families without children,
notably Redlands also has a significantly higher percentage of single-person households. Compared to
other comparable jurisdictions in Southern California, Rancho Cucamonga has a similar percentage of
families with children as Irvine.
Most households in Rancho Cucamonga own their home, which is the case for San Bernardino County and
nearly all of the neighboring cities, except for San Bernardino. Compared to other comparable Southern
California communities, most households rent their home in Los Angeles County, Irvine, and Pasadena.
Figure 15: Average Household Size, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Figure 16: Average Household Size, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
4.1 3.8 3.42 3.41 3.38 3.26 3.03 2.77
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Eastvale Fontana Ontario San
Bernardino
Redlands San
Bernardino
County
Rancho
Cucamonga
RiversideAverage Household Size3.03 2.9 2.7 2.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Rancho Cucamonga LA County Irvine PasdenaAverage Household Size
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 13
Table 7: Percentage of Households by Type, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021
Families with
Children
Families
without
Children
Single-Person
Household
Other Non-
Family
Household
Rancho Cucamonga 36% 41% 19% 4%
Eastvale 58% 33% 7% 3%
Fontana 52% 34% 11% 3%
Ontario 43% 36% 16% 5%
Redlands 33% 34% 25% 8%
Riverside 40% 33% 19% 8%
San Bernardino 45% 30% 19% 6%
San Bernardino County 41% 36% 18% 5%
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Table 8: Percentage of Households by Type, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021
Families with
Children
Families
without
Children
Single-Person
Household
Other Non-
Family
Household
Rancho Cucamonga 36% 41% 19% 4%
Irvine 34% 31% 23% 12%
Pasadena 24% 33% 34% 10%
Los Angeles County 32% 34% 26% 8%
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 14
Figure 17: Percentage of Households by Tenure, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Figure 18: Percentage of Households by Tenure, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est. 2021.
Employment and Firms
This section describes total employment in Rancho Cucamonga relative to neighboring cities, San
Bernardino County, and comparable Southern California jurisdictions using data from the U.S. Census
Bureau Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program. The section also describes the total
number of firms, the size of firms, and the largest private employers in Rancho Cucamonga using data from
Data Axel.
63%
79%
66%55%59%56%49%60%
37%
21%
34%45%41%44%51%40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rancho
Cucamonga
Eastvale Fontana Ontario Redlands Riverside San
Bernardino
San
Bernardino
CountyHousehold Tenure Owner Occupied Renter Occupied
63%
44%42%46%
37%
56%58%54%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Rancho Cucamonga Irvine Pasadena Los Angeles CountyHousehold Tenure Owner Occupied Renter Occupied
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 15
Rancho Cucamonga has approximately 71,845 jobs, and the City’s employment base is smaller than the
neighboring cities of Riverside, Ontario, and San Bernardino (Table 9), and when compared to other
comparable Southern California jurisdictions, Rancho Cucamonga’s employment is also less than in Irvine
and Pasadena (Table 10).
Table 11 shows that between 2011 to 2019, Rancho Cucamonga experienced a 15% increase in total jobs.
Rancho Cucamonga’s job growth outpaced Riverside and San Bernardino, but Eastvale, Ontario, Redlands,
and Fontana experienced a higher rate of growth during this period. From 2011 to 2019, Rancho
Cucamonga grew much faster than Pasadena but less than Irvine.
Table 9: Total Employment, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County 2011 and 2019
2011 2019
Riverside 128,236 146,033
Ontario 87,077 117,080
San Bernardino 94,509 103,888
Rancho Cucamonga 62,463 71,845
Fontana 42,898 53,640
Redlands 26,025 33,696
Eastvale 4,874 14,486
San Bernardino County 570,622 703,024
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2011, 2019.
Table 10: Total Employment, Southern California Comparable Jurisdictions, 2011 to 2019
2011 2019
Irvine 206,493 257,836
Pasadena 94,001 98,366
Rancho Cucamonga 62,463 71,845
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2011, 2019.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 16
Table 11: Employment Growth, Neighboring Cities and San Bernardino County 2011 to 2019
Change 2011 to 2019
Net New Jobs % Change
Eastvale 9,612 197%
Ontario 30,003 34%
Redlands 7,671 29%
Fontana 10,742 25%
Rancho Cucamonga 9,382 15%
Riverside 17,797 14%
San Bernardino 9,379 10%
San Bernardino County 132,402 23%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2011, 2019.
Table 12: Employment Growth, Southern California Comparable Jurisdictions
Change 2011 to 2019
Net New Jobs % Change
Irvine 51,343 25%
Rancho Cucamonga 9,382 15%
Pasadena 4,365 5%
Table 13 shows the number of firms by industry in Rancho Cucamonga. The largest number of firms in
Rancho Cucamonga are in the health care and social assistance, retail trade, and professional and
technical services industries. The health care and social assistance industry has the most firms with 760.
Many of these firms are small offices of physicians, densities, mental health professionals, and nursing care
facilities.
Figure 19 displays the range of firm sizes in Rancho Cucamonga. Most businesses in Rancho Cucamonga
are small businesses with fewer than 10 employees. There are an estimated 2,387 businesses with 1 to 4
employees, and 1,156 businesses with 5 to 10 employees.
The number of firms with one to four employees (2,387) is significantly higher than all other firm categories.
As the number of employees increase per firm in Rancho Cucamonga, the number of firms with employees
decreases. Rancho Cucamonga has three firms with 1,000 to 4,999 employees, which include Inland
Empire Health Plan, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, and Chaffey College.
Table 14 shows Rancho Cucamonga’s largest private employers. Inland Empire Health Plan is the City’s
largest employer with an estimated 2,005 employees. Amphastar Pharmaceuticals follows as the second
largest employer with an estimated 1,761 employees. Frito Lay, Bass Pro Shops, and Walmart are the next
largest private employers in Rancho Cucamonga.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 17
Table 13: Rancho Cucamonga Firms by Industry, 2022
NAICS Industry Category Firms Percent
62 Health Care and Social Assistance 760 15.4%
44-45 Retail Trade 587 11.9%
54 Professional and Technical Services 511 10.3%
81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 469 9.5%
23 Construction 400 8.1%
72 Accommodation and Food Services 385 7.8%
52 Finance and Insurance 278 5.6%
31-33 Manufacturing 267 5.4%
42 Wholesale Trade 225 4.6%
53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 213 4.3%
56 Administration and Waste Management 194 3.9%
61 Educational Services 128 2.6%
48-49 Transportation and Warehousing 89 1.8%
71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 83 1.7%
51 Information 74 1.5%
92 Public Administration 57 1.2%
11 Agriculture and Forestry 8 0.2%
55 Management of Companies 5 0.1%
22 Utilities 3 0.1%
N/A 206 4.2%
Total 4,942
Source: Data Axle, 2022.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 18
Figure 19: Rancho Cucamonga Firms by Size, 2022
Source: Data Axle, 2022.
Table 14: Rancho Cucamonga Largest Private Employers, 2022
Firm
Number of
Employees Percent
Inland Empire Health Plan 2,005 3.3%
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals 1,761 2.9%
Frito Lay 600 1.0%
Bass Pro Shops 500 0.8%
Walmart 435 0.7%
C & C Organization1 400 0.6%
Coca-Cola Bottling Co 400 0.6%
Arctic Mechanical 390 0.6%
Macy's 380 0.6%
Adecco 360 0.6%
Bradshaw Home Inc 350 0.6%
Superior Electric 350 0.6%
1 Parent company to Cask 'n Cleaver Steakhouse
Source: Data Axle, 2022.
2,387
1,156
547 333 155 68 15 4 3
274
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 99 100 to
249
250 to
499
500 to
999
1000 to
4,999
UnknownShare of Total Firms
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 19
Industry Sectors
This section describes the relative size, rate of growth, and concentration of employment in industry sectors
in Rancho Cucamonga compared to San Bernardino County and the State of California.
Table 15 and Figure 20 show that Rancho Cucamonga’s greatest share of employment is in manufacturing.
There are approximately 8,900 manufacturing jobs in Rancho Cucamonga, which account for 12.4 percent
of the City’s total jobs. Rancho Cucamonga’s next largest industry is accommodation and food services
(7,801 jobs), followed by retail trade (7,562 jobs) and health care and social assistance (6,974 jobs).
Table 16 shows that the fastest-growing industry in Rancho Cucamonga is finance and insurance, which
grew by 150 percent from 2011 to 2019. Construction also grew significantly, increasing by more than
double (108 percent). Figure 21 shows that Rancho Cucamonga’s finance and insurance industry and the
construction industry grew outpaced San Bernardino County and the State. The City also marginally
outpaced the County and the State in growth in the health care and social assistance industry.
Table 17 and Figure 22 show the 2019 location quotient of Rancho Cucamonga relative to San Bernardino
County and the location quotient of San Bernardino County to the State of California. A location quotient is
a metric that provides a measure of how concentrated an industry is in an area.1 A location quotient of
greater than 1.0 means an industry is concentrated in an area while a location quotient of less than 1.0
means an industry is not concentrated in an area. The highest location quotient for Rancho Cucamonga to
San Bernardino County is for finance and insurance (3.4), which means that finance and insurance jobs
are much more concentrated in Rancho Cucamonga than in the County overall. Additional concentrated
industries in Rancho Cucamonga include manufacturing, construction, utilities, real estate, professional and
technical services, and accommodation and food services.
1 The location quotient is the ratio of an area’s distribution of employment by industry in comparison to the distribution
of the reference area.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 20
Table 15: Employment by Industry, 2019
NAICS Industry Category
Rancho
Cucamonga
San Bernardino
County State of CA
Jobs Share Jobs Share Jobs Share
31-33 Manufacturing 8,901 12.4% 54,233 7.7% 1,262,092 8.1%
72 Accommodation and Food
Services 7,801 10.9% 58,147 8.3% 1,398,882 8.9%
44-45 Retail Trade 7,562 10.5% 77,499 11.0% 1,450,919 9.3%
62 Health Care and Social
Assistance 6,974 9.7% 107,941 15.4% 2,173,287 13.9%
23 Construction 5,875 8.2% 37,870 5.4% 846,103 5.4%
61 Educational Services 5,610 7.8% 61,005 8.7% 1,362,968 8.7%
52 Finance and Insurance 5,545 7.7% 15,920 2.3% 518,531 3.3%
56 Administrative and Waste
Management 5,474 7.6% 52,091 7.4% 988,261 6.3%
42 Wholesale Trade 4,550 6.3% 42,779 6.1% 661,106 4.2%
54 Professional and Technical
Services 3,364 4.7% 22,935 3.3% 1,266,358 8.1%
48-49 Transportation and Warehousing 2,873 4.0% 82,856 11.8% 624,664 4.0%
81 Other Services (except Public
Admin) 1,958 2.7% 18,365 2.6% 491,737 3.1%
92 Public Administration 1,600 2.2% 33,688 4.8% 716,257 4.6%
53 Real Estate and Rental and
Leasing 1,373 1.9% 8,923 1.3% 273,969 1.8%
55 Management of Companies 702 1.0% 6,635 0.9% 263,485 1.7%
22 Utilities 695 1.0% 4,493 0.6% 106,183 0.7%
71 Arts, Entertainment, and
Recreation 497 0.7% 10,141 1.4% 318,793 2.0%
51 Information 278 0.4% 4,652 0.7% 596,798 3.8%
11 Agriculture and Forestry 213 0.3% 2,050 0.3% 304,112 1.9%
99 N/A 0 0.0% 801 0.1% 18,786 0.1%
Total Employment 71,845 703,024 15,643,291
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2019.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 21
Figure 20: Top Rancho Cucamonga Industry Sectors by Employment, 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2019.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Manufacturing Accommodation
and Food
Services
Retail Trade Health Care and
Social
Assistance
Construction Educational
Services
Finance and
Insurance% Total EmploymentRancho Cucamonga San Bernardino County State of CA
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 22
Table 16: Percent Employment Growth by Industry, 2011 to 2019
NAICS Industry Category Rancho
Cucamonga
San Bernardino
County State of CA
52 Finance and Insurance 150% 10% 1%
23 Construction 108% 62% 66%
92 Public Administration 49% -1% -3%
62 Health Care and Social Assistance 47% 44% 41%
11 Agriculture and Forestry 43% -8% 5%
71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 38% 8% 17%
42 Wholesale Trade 35% 29% 3%
72 Accommodation and Food Services 31% 27% 29%
54 Professional and Technical Services 31% 11% 23%
53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 23% 27% 17%
61 Educational Services 16% 9% 7%
31-33 Manufacturing 10% 18% 4%
55 Management of Companies 4% -1% 24%
81 Other Services (except Public Admin) 1% -28% -26%
48-49 Transportation and Warehousing -5% 94% 46%
44-45 Retail Trade -12% 2% 4%
22 Utilities -40% -18% 1%
56 Administrative and Waste Management -41% 27% 27%
51 Information -46% -17% 44%
99 N/A -100% 30% -28%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2011, 2019.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 23
Figure 21: Select Fastest Growing Large Industry Sectors, 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2011, 2019.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Finance and
Insurance
Construction Health Care and
Social
Assistance
Wholesale
Trade
Accommodation
and Food
Services
Professional
and Technical
Services% Employment Growth 2011 to 2019Rancho Cucamonga San Bernardino County State of CA
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 24
Table 17: Location Quotient, 2019
NAICS Industry Category
Rancho
Cucamonga/San
Bernardino County
San Bernardino
County/State of
CA
52 Finance and Insurance 3.4 0.7
31-33 Manufacturing 1.6 1.0
23 Construction 1.5 1.0
22 Utilities 1.5 0.9
53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1.5 0.7
54 Professional and Technical Services 1.4 0.4
72 Accommodation and Food Services 1.3 0.9
81 Other Services (except Public Admin) 1.0 0.8
42 Wholesale Trade 1.0 1.4
55 Management of Companies 1.0 0.6
56 Administration and Waste Management 1.0 1.2
11 Agriculture and Forestry 1.0 0.1
44-45 Retail Trade 1.0 1.2
61 Educational Services 0.9 1.0
62 Health Care and Social Assistance 0.6 1.1
51 Information 0.6 0.2
71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 0.5 0.7
92 Public Administration 0.5 1.0
48-49 Transportation and Warehousing 0.3 3.0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2019.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 25
Figure 22: Most Concentrated Industries, 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2019.
Industry Sectors Summary
Figures 23 to 25 combine location quotient, employment growth, and employment size by industry sector
into one display. Figure 23 shows the size of industry sectors in the City and whether they are growing and
concentrated in Rancho Cucamonga. In the figure, the finance and insurance sector stands out from the
other industries. Finance and insurance is a moderately sized sector in terms of employment and is highly
concentrated and growing quickly in the City. Other concentrated and growing industries in Rancho
Cucamonga include manufacturing, real estate, professional and technical services, accommodations and
food services, and construction.
Figure 24 shows the size of industry sectors in San Bernardino County and whether they are growing and
concentrated in the County. Transportation and warehousing is highly concentrated and growing rapidly in
the County. This contrasts significantly with Rancho Cucamonga, as Figure 23 shows, transportation and
warehousing is not concentrated in the City and employment has shrunk somewhat since 2011. Health
care and social assistance, which is a relatively large and fast-growing industry in Rancho Cucamonga and
the County, is somewhat concentrated in the County but not very concentrated in the City.
Figure 25 shows the size of industry sectors in San Bernardino County and whether they are growing in the
County and how concentrated they are in Rancho Cucamonga. This figure demonstrates which industries
may represent opportunities for growth in Rancho Cucamonga. Finance and insurance, manufacturing,
professional and technical services, real estate, accommodation and food services are all growing sectors
in the County that are also concentrated in Rancho Cucamonga. Construction jobs, which are growing
particularly fast in the County are also notably concentrated in Rancho Cucamonga. Rancho Cucamonga
may be well positioned to attract and grow these industries that are expanding in the local region.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Finance and
Insurance
Manufacturing Construction Utilities Real Estate Professional
and Technical
Services
Accommodation
and Food
ServicesLocation QuotientRancho Cucamonga/San Bernardino County San Bernardino County/State of CA
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 26
Figure 23: Industries by Concentration in Rancho Cucamonga and Growth in Rancho Cucamonga, 2011-2019
Note: The size of the dot reflects the number of jobs per industry sector.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2011, 2019.
Agriculture and Forestry
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and
Leasing
Professional and
Technical ServicesManagement of
Companies
Administrative and Waste
Management
Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment,
and Recreation
Accommodation and Food ServicesOther Services (except
Public Admin)
Public Administration
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%LQ Rancho Cucamonga/San Bernardino CountyRancho Cucamonga Employment Growth 2011-2019
Growing in the City & Concentrated in the City
Declining in the City & Not
Concentrated in the City
Growing in the City & Not
Concentrated in the City
Declining in the City &
Concentrated in the City
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 27
Figure 24: Industries by Concentration in San Bernardino County and Growth in San Bernardino County, 2011-2019
Note: The size of the dot reflects the number of jobs per industry sector.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2011, 2019.
Agriculture and Forestry
Utilities Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and
Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate
Professional and Technical Services
Management of Companies
Administrative and Waste Management
Educational
Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food ServicesOther Services (except Public Admin)
Public Administration
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%LQ San Bernardino County/ State of CASan Bernardino County Employment Growth 2011-2019
Declining in the County &
Concentrated in the County
Growing in the County & Not
Concentrated in the County
Growing in the County & Concentrated in the County
Declining in the County & Not
Concentrated in the County
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 28
Figure 25: Industries by Concentration in Rancho Cucamonga and Growth in San Bernardino County, 2011-2019
Note: The size of the dot reflects the number of jobs per industry sector.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, 2011, 2019.
Agriculture and Forestry
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and
Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate
Professional and Technical
ServicesManagement of Companies
Administrative and Waste Management
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services (except Public Admin)
Public Administration
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%LQ Rancho Cucamonga/ San Bernardino CountySan Bernardino County Employment Growth 2011-2019
Growing in the County &
Concentrated in the City
Declining in the County &
Not Concentrated in the City Growing in the County & Not
Concentrated in the City
Declining in the County &
Concentrated in the City
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 29
Market Analysis
This section describes the current and historic performance of residential and commercial land uses in
Rancho Cucamonga. The analysis relies on data from online real estate platforms Redfin and Zillow and
data from the private real estate data source CoStar.
Residential Market
Rancho Cucamonga’s home prices are relatively high compared to prices in the local region but are more
moderately priced compared to Greater Los Angeles and the State of California overall. Figure 26 shows
that home prices are much higher in Rancho Cucamonga compared to San Bernardino County and less
than the neighboring Los Angeles Metro Area and the State. Among nearby cities, Rancho Cucamonga
has the second highest home prices following Eastvale and higher home prices than Ontario, Fontana,
Redlands, Riverside, and San Bernardino (Figure 27). Compared to other comparable Southern California
jurisdictions, Rancho Cucamonga’s home prices are much less than in Irvine and Pasadena (Figure 28).
Monthly rents are higher in Rancho Cucamonga compared to San Bernardino County, but somewhat on
par with the Greater Los Angeles Area (Figure 29). Among neighboring cities, rents in Rancho Cucamonga
are higher than in Redlands, Ontario, Riverside, and San Bernardino, but Rancho Cucamonga rents are
lower than in Eastvale and Fontana (Figure 30). The City of Irvine has much higher rents than Rancho
Cucamonga, but rents in Rancho Cucamonga are similar to those in Pasadena (Figure 31).
Figure 26: Median Home Sales Price, 2012 to 2022
Source: Redfin, December 2022.
$0K
$100K
$200K
$300K
$400K
$500K
$600K
$700K
$800K
$900K
$1,000K
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Median Sales Price (Nominal Dollars)Los Angeles Metro Area
State of California
Rancho Cucamonga
San Bernardino County
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 30
Figure 27: Median Home Sales Price, Neighboring Cities, 2012 to 2022
Source: Redfin, December 2022.
Figure 28: Median Home Sales Price, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2012 to 2022
Source: Redfin, December 2022.
$0K
$100K
$200K
$300K
$400K
$500K
$600K
$700K
$800K
$900K
$1,000K
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Median Sales Price (Nominal Dollars)Eastvale
Rancho Cucamonga
Ontario
Fontana
Redlands
Riverside
San Bernardino
$0K
$200K
$400K
$600K
$800K
$1,000K
$1,200K
$1,400K
$1,600K
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Median Sales Price (Nominal Dollars)Irvine
Pasadena
Rancho Cucamonga
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 31
Figure 29: Average Monthly Rent, 2015 to 2022
Source: Zillow, November 2022.
Figure 30: Average Monthly Rent, Neighboring Cities, 2015 to 2022
Source: Zillow, November 2022.
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
$2,600
$2,800
$3,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Monthly Rent (Nominal Dollars)Los Angeles Metro
Rancho Cucamonga
San Bernardino County
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Monthly Rent (Nominal Dollars)Eastvale
Fontana
Rancho Cucamonga
Riverside
Ontario
Redlands
San Bernardino
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 32
Figure 31: Average Monthly Rent, Comparable Southern California Jurisdictions, 2015 to 2022
Source: Zillow, November 2022.
Commercial Land Use Market
National Trends Retail and COVID-19
Rancho Cucamonga’s local retail market is influenced by larger-scale national trends. Over the last decade,
retail markets have been shifting and reorganizing in large part due to the growth of e-commerce. However,
while increased online sales have reduced the demand for in-store sales, there has been an increased
demand for experiential retail such as restaurants, bars, and gyms.
Over the last two years, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted brick and mortar retail stores of all types and
accelerated the shift in demand for online sales of physical goods. While the details of the long-term
recovery from COVID-19 for the retail market are uncertain, the market will likely rebound while perhaps
also changing to accommodate new trends enabled by new technologies and consumer expectations
regarding convenience such as contactless shopping.1
Commercial Land Use Trends
Rancho Cucamonga has approximately 5.2 million square feet of office space, 8.5 million square feet of
retail space, and 40.9 million square feet of industrial space. The City’s office, retail, and industrial space
account for a significant proportion of total space in San Bernardino County. Of the County’s total
commercial space, Rancho Cucamonga accounts for 13 percent of total office space, 9 percent of total
retail space, and 9 percent of total industrial space.
Rancho Cucamonga’s commercial land uses are performing better than in the County overall. The City’s
office, retail, and industrial rents are higher compared to the County, and vacancies are on par or lower
1https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/consumer-business/us-cb-covid-recession-2020.pdf
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Monthly Rent (Nominal Dollars)Irvine
Pasadena
Rancho Cucamonga
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 33
than in the County. Figures 32 and 33 also demonstrate the strong performance of Rancho Cucamonga’s
commercial land uses. Since 2010, rents for all commercial land uses have increased and vacancies have
decreased. However, during this period, only industrial space has increased by a notable amount in the
City. From 2010 to 2022, office space increased by one percent and retail space increased by 4 percent,
while industrial space increased by 16 percent (Table 19).
Table 18: Commercial Land Use Summary, 2022
Building Sf. Building Sf. %
of County
Average
Monthly Rent Vacancy %
Office
Rancho Cucamonga 5,263,228 13% $2.17 5.4%
San Bernardino County 40,114,155 100% $1.93 5.5%
Retail
Rancho Cucamonga 8,492,590 9% $1.99 4.4%
San Bernardino County 95,932,505 100% $1.68 6.5%
Industrial
Rancho Cucamonga 40,896,511 9% $1.35 1.6%
San Bernardino County 449,628,749 100% $1.30 1.7%
Source: CoStar, 2022.
Table 19: Commercial Land Use Net Increase, 2010 to 2022
Rancho Cucamonga San Bernardino County
Number Percent Number Percent
Building Sf.
Office 28,022 1% 990,728 3%
Retail 293,676 4% 6,129,416 7%
Industrial 5,744,197 16% 127,330,102 40%
Average Monthly Rent
Office $0.57 36% $0.39 25%
Retail $0.36 22% $0.36 27%
Industrial $0.97 255% $0.94 261%
Vacancy
Office -16.9% -76% -9.1% -62%
Retail -3.4% -44% -2.6% -29%
Industrial -5.1% -76% -7.7% -82%
CoStar, 2022.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 34
Figure 32: Rancho Cucamonga Commercial Land Use Rents, 2010 to 2022
Source: CoStar, 2022.
Figure 33: Rancho Cucamonga Commercial Land Use Vacancy, 2010 to 2022
Source: CoStar, 2022.
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Average Monthly RentOffice
Retail
Industrial
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Vacancy PercentOffice
Retail
Industrial
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 35
Figure 34: Rancho Cucamonga Commercial Land Use Building Sf., 2010 to 2022
Source: CoStar, 2022.
Target Industry Sectors
The previous sections in this memo describe employment trends in Rancho Cucamonga using broadly
defined categories, such as manufacturing and retail trade. This section examines subsets of those
categories that more specifically define the type of employment in Rancho Cucamonga. More detailed
categories were examined to identify specialized industries that are well-positioned to grow and diversify
the City’s economy. This section also describes leading private sector employers for these target industries
in the City.
The specialized industry sectors in Rancho Cucamonga were defined as those that employ a significant
number of workers and are highly concentrated in the City. The specialized industries identified in this
analysis include advanced manufacturing; medical manufacturing; food and beverage manufacturing;
finance, insurance and real estate, and professional services.
Advanced Manufacturing
Advanced manufacturing is characterized by manufacturing activity involving technology innovation and
requiring skilled workers with technical knowledge and training. Advanced manufacturers span industries
that include the production of aerospace equipment, medical devices, and computer components. In
Rancho Cucamonga, there are approximately 2,000 advanced manufacturing jobs in the city (excluding
medical manufacturing jobs). Among the largest aerospace manufacturing companies in the City include
Air Components Inc, Hartwell Corporation, and Pneudraulics Inc. Among electronic manufacturers, the
City’s largest employers include Arlon Electronic Materials, Celco-Pacific Division, Mercury United
Electronics Inc, and VPG Transducers.
Medical Manufacturing
Medical manufacturing could be considered part of the advanced manufacturing industry category, but on
its own, it represents a sizeable portion of jobs (approximately 2,000 jobs) in the City of Rancho Cucamonga.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Building sf. (Millions)Office
Retail
Industrial
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 36
Medical Manufacturing is also highly concentrated in the City relative to San Bernardino County. The
industry involves the production of medical equipment and medicine. Most of the medical manufacturing
jobs in Rancho Cucamonga are with the firm Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, which is one of the City’s largest
employers (Table 14). Other significant employers include medical device and surgical instrument
manufacturers such as Comar, Mediflex Inc, and Eagle Labs.
Food and Beverage Manufacturing
Food and beverage manufacturing is a unique segment of Rancho Cucamonga’s overall manufacturing
sector that contains about 1,400 jobs and is somewhat concentrated relative to San Bernardino County.
Frito Lays, Coca-Cola, Cerenzia Foods Inc, and Evolution Fresh are among the City’s largest food and
beverage manufacturers. Mizkan America and Nongshim USA are examples of international manufacturers
that also employ a significant number of workers in the City. This sector also includes several breweries
that provide the added benefit of being an attractive amenity and potential regional destination in Rancho
Cucamonga.
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
Rancho Cucamonga contains a high concentration of the local region’s finance, insurance and real estate
industry (sometimes referred to as FIRE industries) employment. There are approximately 5,800 FIRE jobs
in the City that account for 9.4 percent of total employment. Insurance-related activity accounts for about
half of the FIRE jobs in Rancho Cucamonga, of which are employed at offices of national insurance
providers such as First American Title and CorVel Corporation, and in small to medium-sized insurance
broker firms. In addition to several national banking branches, a large portion of the finance-related
companies in Rancho Cucamonga are small mortgage lenders, portfolio management and investment firms.
Among real estate-related firms, most in the City are medium to small offices of real estate agents and
brokers.
Professional Services
Professional service firms range from engineering and design companies to legal and accounting firms.
The professional service industry complements other target industries such as advanced manufacturing
through related research and administrative activity. Large professional service employers in the City
include aerospace and engineering companies such as CDM Smith and Atlas Testing Laboratories. Rancho
Cucamonga’s professional services industry also consists of several small, local offices that provide legal,
tax, and design services that serve the local and regional community.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 37
Table 20: Target Industry Sectors Summary, 2021
Industry
Rancho
Cucamonga
Jobs
Share of
Rancho
Cucamonga
Jobs
Rancho
Cucamonga/San
Bernardino
County LQ
Manufacturing Industries
Advanced Manufacturing 1,974 3.2% 2.7
Medical Manufacturing 1,955 3.2% 5.8
Food and Beverage Manufacturing 1,398 2.3% 1.3
Office Industries
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 5,789 9.4% 3.3
Professional Services 2,707 4.4% 2.7
Source: Data Axel, 2022; QCEW, 2021.
Comparable Market Areas
This section summarizes the analysis of neighboring communities and comparable Southern California
jurisdictions to determine how Rancho Cucamonga might compete for retention and attraction of employers
and service providers across land uses and industry sectors.
Table 21 summarizes key demographic and employment characteristics for Rancho Cucamonga and
neighboring cities discussed in previous sections of the memo, and Table 22 shows these key
characteristics indexed to Rancho Cucamonga’s characteristics.
Table 22 shows that Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ontario are larger than Rancho Cucamonga in
population and total employment but have less educated residents with lower incomes. Fontana while
having a larger resident population than Rancho Cucamonga has a smaller employment base. Fontana like
Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ontario also has less educated residents and with lower incomes than
Rancho Cucamonga. Redlands and Eastvale have smaller populations and employment bases than
Rancho Cucamonga, but their residents are generally more educated and Eastvale’s residents have higher
incomes. Redland and Eastvale have also experienced faster job growth from 2011 to 2019 than Rancho
Cucamonga.
Tables 21 and 22 show that Rancho Cucamonga is highly competitive compared to its neighboring cities.
Rancho Cucamonga is balanced well by a relatively large employment base, highly educated residents,
and residents with high incomes. Among the neighboring cities, Riverside and Fontana may be generally
the most competitive with Rancho Cucamonga for attracting residents and employers. Riverside has a
larger employment base and somewhat lower incomes of residents. While the share of residents with a
bachelor's degree or higher is relatively low in Redlands, it is the highest among the neighboring cities with
a larger employment base than Rancho Cucamonga. Fontana’s employment base is somewhat smaller
than Rancho Cucamonga’s, but Fontana is adding jobs at a more significant rate. Fontana’s resident
incomes are also only somewhat lower, but the concentration of highly educated residents is much lower
than in Rancho Cucamonga. The cities of Redlands and Eastvale may be competitive with Rancho
Cucamonga for attracting highly skilled workers, although the small employment base in both cities may
disadvantage them.
Tables 23 and 24 show Rancho Cucamonga compared to Irvine and Pasadena. Rancho Cucamonga is
currently less comparable to these cities than to its neighboring cities but still shares some notable
characteristics. Irvine has a larger and faster growing resident population and employment base than
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 38
Rancho Cucamonga, and Irvine has a higher concentration of highly educated residents and higher
incomes. Irvine’s employment base is also currently structured somewhat differently compared to Rancho
Cucamonga. While Irvine also has a sizable manufacturing sector (13 percent of total jobs), 1 the city’s
largest sector is in professional, scientific and technical services, which accounts for 17 percent of total jobs
compared to approximately 5 percent of jobs in Rancho Cucamonga (Table 15). However, Rancho
Cucamonga has an expanding professional, scientific and technical services industry, and like Irvine has
high access to education and an airport.2
Compared to Irvine, Rancho Cucamonga currently shares more in common with Pasadena. Incomes are
slightly higher in Rancho Cucamonga than in Pasadena, and while Pasadena has a larger employment
base, it is not growing as fast as Rancho Cucamonga. However, there is a larger share of higher-educated
residents in Pasadena relative to Rancho Cucamonga. Like Irvine and Rancho Cucamonga, Pasadena has
high access to higher education institutions and is relatively close to an airport (Burbank Airport).
Table 21: Neighboring Cities Attributes Summary
Total
Population
(2021)
Population
Growth
(2010-2021)
Bachelor's
Degree or
Higher
(2021)
Median
Income
(2021)
Total
Employment
(2019)
Job Growth
(2011-2019)
Rancho
Cucamonga 173,946 8.2% 37% $97,046 62,463 15%
Riverside 314,858 4.8% 24% $76,755 128,236 14%
San Bernardino 220,821 5.6% 22% $55,372 94,509 10%
Fontana 208,087 9.8% 20% $83,468 53,640 25%
Ontario 175,223 6.1% 19% $71,908 87,077 34%
Redlands 72,649 5.5% 44% $87,184 26,025 29%
Eastvale 68,539 39.5% 41% $141,827 14,486 197%
1 U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD 2019.
2 The City of Irvine is home to the University of California Irvine and is located near John Wayne Airport.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 39
Table 22: Neighboring Cities Indexed to Rancho Cucamonga
Total
Population
(2021)
Population
Growth
(2010-2021)
Bachelor's
Degree or
Higher
(2021)
Median
Income
(2021)
Total
Employment
(2019)
Job Growth
(2011-2019)
Rancho
Cucamonga 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Riverside 181% 58% 65% 79% 205% 92%
San Bernardino 127% 68% 60% 57% 151% 66%
Fontana 120% 120% 53% 86% 86% 167%
Ontario 101% 74% 51% 74% 139% 229%
Redlands 42% 67% 120% 90% 42% 196%
Eastvale 39% 482% 113% 146% 23% 1313%
Table 23: Southern California Comparable Cities Attributes Summary
Total
Population
(2021)
Population
Growth
(2010-2021)
Bachelor's
Degree or
Higher
(2021)
Median
Income
(2021)
Total
Employment
(2019)
Job Growth
(2011-2019)
Rancho
Cucamonga 173,946 8.2% 37% $97,046 62,463 15%
Irvine 297,868 49.6% 69% $114,027 257,836 25%
Pasadena 138,771 1.7% 53% $89,661 98,366 5%
Table 24: Southern California Comparable Cities Indexed to Rancho Cucamonga
Total
Population
(2021)
Population
Growth
(2010-2021)
Bachelor's
Degree or
Higher
(2021)
Median
Income
(2021)
Total
Employment
(2019)
Employment
Growth
(2011-2019)
Rancho
Cucamonga 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Irvine 171% 606% 188% 117% 413% 166%
Pasadena 80% 21% 146% 92% 157% 31%
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 40
Retail Analysis
This section describes retail spending trends in Rancho Cucamonga and reviews categories of retail
businesses and their potential “fit” for Rancho Cucamonga.
Restaurant and food and beverage sales are stronger in Rancho Cucamonga compared to the County
overall. In 2021, estimated taxable sales per household for food services and driving and food and beverage
services were higher in Rancho Cucamonga than in San Bernardino County. The City also had stronger
sales in home furnishing and appliances and about the same performance of sales for general merchandise.
Sales were stronger in several categories in the County compared to Rancho Cucamonga including apparel,
automotive-related parts and services, and other retail.
Figure 35: Taxable Sales per Household, 2021
Source: ACS, 5-Year Est, 2021; California Department of Tax and Fee Administration, 2021.
Retail Fit Analysis
This section reviews a select group of retail categories and the likelihood of businesses locating in Rancho
Cucamonga based on the location preferences of the businesses.
• Grocery Stores. Rancho Cucamonga is currently a strong fit for grocery stores specializing in
products from Central and South America (Table 25). Northgate Market and Cardenas Market both
target areas to locate with highly concentrated Hispanic and Latino populations. A large share of
Rancho Cucamonga’s population identifies as Hispanic or Latino (Tables 3 and 4). The City is only
a moderate fit for higher-end grocery stores such as Gelson’s and Whole Foods. These businesses
typically prefer locations with higher population densities.
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
Taxable Sales Per HouseholdRancho Cucamonga San Bernardino County
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 41
• Restaurants. Rancho Cucamonga is currently a strong fit for fast casual and mid-tier full-service
restaurants but may have trouble attracting high-end full-service restaurants (Table 26). The
relatively high incomes in Rancho Cucamonga are an attractive quality for restaurant businesses,
and the City’s concentration of college-educated residents is particularly preferable to fast casual
restaurants. High-end full-service restaurants generally prefer to locate near areas with strong
office and hotel activity, and in areas with higher population density than currently in Rancho
Cucamonga.
• Coffee Shops. Coffee shops in general prefer to locate in areas with high morning and daytime
populations and areas with college-educated residents (Table 27). Rancho has a well-educated,
relatively wealthy population, which is attractive for coffee businesses. Among the types of coffee
shops, Rancho Cucamonga is a fit for mid-tier coffee shops (Table 25). Examples of these types
of coffee shops include Dutch Bros. Coffee and Peet's Coffee & Tea. Higher-tier coffee businesses
such as Blue Bottle Coffee, Philz, and Verve, prefer to locate in areas with higher population
densities than found in Rancho Cucamonga such as Downtown Santa Monica and Downtown
Pasadena, where some of these businesses are currently located.
• Breweries. High to mid-tier breweries are likely to locate in Rancho Cucamonga (Table 28). The
City’s demographics are generally a good fit, including the preferred age range for some breweries,
which is between 34 to 54 years. However, some breweries may prefer locations with higher
population densities than currently in Rancho Cucamonga.
Table 25: Retail Fit Grocery Stores Summary
Category
Rancho
Cucamonga
Existing Fit
Example
Businesses
Sf. Size
Requirements
Min.
Population
Within 1-3
Miles
Avg.
Household
Income
High-End Moderate
Gelson's Markets,
Bristol Farms, Whole
Foods Market 20,000 -
60,000
200,000 $75,000
Targeted Strong Northgate Market,
Cardenas Market - -
Retail Lease Trac, 2022.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 42
Table 26: Retail Fit Restaurants Summary
Category
Rancho
Cucamonga
Existing Fit
Example
Businesses
Sf. Size
Requirements
Min.
Population
Within 1-3
Miles
Avg.
Household
Income
High-End
Full-Service Moderate
Morton's
Steakhouse, Il
Fornaio, Ocean
Prime Seafood
Steaks & Cocktails,
Truluck's, Nick's
Restaurants, Meat
On Ocean, Mastro's
Steakhouse
3,000 - 11,000 200,000 $75,000
Mid-Tier
Full-Service Strong
Mixt, Breakfast
Republic, The
Boiling Crab,
Bonefish Grill,
Eureka!, Wood
Ranch BBQ & Grill,
Sage Plant Based
Bistro & Brewery
2,000 - 6,500 35,000 $75,000
Fast
Casual Strong
Cava Grill, Einstein
Bros., Noah's
Bagels, Le Pain de
Quotidien,
Lemonade,
Mendocino Farms,
Salt and Straw,
Tender Greens,
Umami Burger
1,000 - 4,500 - $60,000
Retail Lease Trac, 2022.
Table 27: Retail Fit Coffee Shops Summary
Category
Rancho
Cucamonga
Existing Fit
Example
Businesses
Sf. Size
Requirements
Min.
Population
Within 1-3
Miles
Avg.
Household
Income
Top-Tier Moderate
Blue Bottle Coffee,
Philz Coffee, Verve
Coffee Roasters,
Intelligentsia
1,500 - 2,500 200,000 $60,000
Mid-Tier Strong
Dutch Bros. Coffee,
Peet's Coffee &
Tea, Better Buzz
Coffee, Urth Caffe
800 - 2,500 20,000 -
100,000 $50,000
Retail Lease Trac, 2022.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 43
Table 28: Retail Fit Breweries Summary
Category
Rancho
Cucamonga
Existing Fit
Example
Businesses
Sf. Size
Requirements
Min.
Population
Within 1-3
Miles
Avg.
Household
Income
Mid-Tier Strong
Voodoo Brewing
Co., Granite City
Food & Brewery,
Board & Brew, BJ's
Restaurant &
Brewhouse
5,000 - 8,000 150,000 $60,000
Retail Lease Trac, 2022.
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 44
Appendix
Table A-1: Target Industry Definitions
NAICS Industry
Rancho
Cucamonga
Employment
(2021)
Food and Beverage Manufacturing 1,398
3118 Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing 82
3119 Other Food Manufacturing 145
3121 Beverage Manufacturing 458
4244 Grocery and Related Product Merchant Wholesalers 713
Medical Manufacturing 1,955
3254 Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing 1,771
3391 Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing 91
4242 Drugs and Druggists' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers 25
423450 Medical, Dental, and Hospital Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers 68
Advanced Manufacturing 1,974
3241 Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 13
3252 Resin, Synthetic Rubber, and Artificial and Synthetic Fibers/Filaments Manufacturing 62
3259 Other Chemical Product and Preparation Manufacturing 29
3271 Clay Product and Refractory Manufacturing 4
3311 Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing 120
3313 Alumina and Aluminum Production and Processing 34
3315 Foundries 180
3331 Agriculture, Construction, and Mining Machinery Manufacturing 21
3332 Industrial Machinery Manufacturing 119
3333 Commercial and Service Industry Machinery Manufacturing 438
3336 Engine, Turbine, and Power Transmission Equipment Manufacturing 8
3339 Other General Purpose Machinery Manufacturing 23
3344 Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing 228
3345 Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments Manufacturing 48
3363 Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing 46
3364 Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing 227
3369 Other Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 10
3399 Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing 364
City of Rancho Cucamonga | Economic Development Strategic Plan | Background Report 2023 45
NAICS Industry
Rancho
Cucamonga
Employment
(2021)
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 6,389
5241 Insurance Carriers 2,110
5242 Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related Activities 776
5221 Depository Credit Intermediation 448
5222 Nondepository Credit Intermediation 516
5223 Activities Related to Credit Intermediation 29
5231 Securities and Commodity Contracts Intermediation and Brokerage 4
5239 Other Financial Investment Activities 244
5259 Other Investment Pools and Funds 10
5311 Lessors of Real Estate 199
5312 Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers 1,392
5313 Activities Related to Real Estate 61
Professional Services 2,707
5411 Legal Services 683
5412 Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services 533
5413 Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services 937
5414 Specialized Design Services 103
5418 Advertising, Public Relations, and Related Services 451
Source: Data Axel, 2022.