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Home My WebLink AboutDELETE (3) CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA ANNUAL ECONOMIC AND HOUSING STUDY & BRIGHTLINE WEST HSR STUDY ***PRESENTATION TO HISTORIC PRESERVATION COMMISSION AND PLANNING COMMISSION*** PREPARED BY EMPIRE ECONOMICS, INC. JOSEPH T. JANCZYK, PH.D. JULY 24, 2024 1 1 2 ANNUAL ECONOMIC AND HOUSING STUDY 2 CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: EMPLOYMENT FORECAST TO 2030 Collectively, total employment is expected to rise ~12,800 from 2023-Est. to 2030-F Forecasted total employment is the sum of the forecasted growth of the 14 primary sectors Overall, growth per year is expected to moderate from 3.2% in 2024-F / 2023-Est. down to a range of 1.7-1.9% for 2027-F-2030-F Note: all forecasts are without the high speed rail and reflect total nonfarm employees by firms located in the City 3 RANCHO CUCAMONGA – EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTORS: 2018 – 2030 2018 to 2030-F: (+) Highest share gains: Administrative and support services (+8%) Transportation and warehousing (+2%) Wholesale (+3%) (-) Greatest share losses: Manufacturing (-6%) Retail trade (-4%) Construction (-2%) Finance and Insurance (-2%) Note: Changes rounded to nearest % 4 LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT VS. AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING *WITHOUT HIGH SPEED RAIL* RANCHO CUCAMONGA’S HOUSEHOLDS WITH JOBS (BLUE LINE) EXCEED THE NUMBER OF JOBS BY FIRMS IN THE CITY (GREEN LINE) FOR 2000, ABOUT 36,745 (NET) CITY RESIDENTS COMMUTE TO JOBS OUTSIDE THE CITY, TYPICALLY AT HIGHER SALARIES THAT ENABLE THEM TO AFFORD HOUSING IN THE CITY. THE GAP IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ~13,000 BY 2030 (THIS EXCLUDES THE HIGH SPEED RAIL EMPLOYMENT) . 5 ANNUAL STUDY: PAGE 20 5 RANCHO CUCAMONGA HOUSING SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND PRICE APPRECIATION (JAN. 2018 – DEC. 2023) a. IN 2018 TO EARLY 2020, THE CITY HOUSING INVENTORY (SUPPLY/RED) WAS HIGHER THAN PENDING SALES (DEMAND/green), NORMAL b. However, BEGINNING IN 2ND QUARTER OF 2020, HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY STARTED TO CONVERGE AND MET IN 2021 c. ONCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND CURVES STARTED TO CONVERGE, THIS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRICE APPRECIATION D. DURING 2022, inventory exceeded pending sales, closer to NORMAL PATTERNS, BUT INVENTORY IS STILL LOW DUE TO HIGH RATES E. During 2023, WITH HIGH MORTGAGE RATES, INVENTORY DECLINED to LEVELS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE SALES 6 ANNUAL STUDY: PAGE 28 6 RANCHO CUCAMONGA – ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS BY MONTH (JAN. 2018 – DEC. 2025 FORECAST) ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS REPRESENT THE SUM OF MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL, MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES AND PROPERTY TAXES 2019-2021: Lower rates offset HOUSING appreciation, PAYMENTS OF $40,000/YR. 2022-23: Higher prices and HIGHER mortgage rates drove payments higher WITH PEAK PAYMENTS OF $60,000/YR. ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENT LEVELS 2024-2025: FOR PAYMENTS TO RETURN TO THEIR 2019-2022 LEVELS OF $40,000/YR., HOUSING prices WOULD NEED TO DECLINE BY -11% ** and ** MORTGAGE rates WOULD NEED TO DECLINE TO 4.5% 7 ANNUAL STUDY: PAGE 25 **SAVINGS WITH LOW MORTGAGE RATE** 7 8 EXISTING HOMEOWNER MORTGAGE RATES BY CUMULATIVE COHORTS 2019Q4 AND 2023Q3 RECENTLY 7.0%+ 8 9 RECAP  POETIC VERSION – AI With each uptick in rates, demand took flight, Yet those with low rates clung tight. Nestled in dwellings with rates of yore, Content in the homes they adore. They watched the market with speculative eyes, As excess demand pushed prices to the skies. The Fed with its target, firm at two percent, Aims for stability, that's their intent. As rates recede, like a low tide's retreat, Hope for buyers begins to replete. With the promise of rates that gently decline, Dreams of ownership once more align. Yet, as housing demand starts to renew, The supply constricted, still options too few. ANNUAL STUDY: ADDED 9 MARKET CONDITIONS FOR APARTMENT RENTALS THE COMPOSITION OF THE RANCHO CUCAMONGA HOUSING MARKET HAS RECENTLY UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM NEW FOR-SALE HOMES TO NEW APARTMENT RENTALS. RANCHO CUCAMONGA APARTMENT MARKET HAS EXPERIENCED ROBUST ACTIVITY: THREE PROJECTS ON THE MARKET ANOTHER TWO UNDER CONSTRUCTION FIVE MORE PROJECTS ARE IN THE PLANNING PROCESS. APARTMENT RENTS SURGED IN 2021 BY +20%, BUT HAVE SINCE MODERATED TO A RATE OF ABOUT 4%. THE SURGE IN RENT STIMULATED THE PLANNING/DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME 3,580 RENTAL UNITS THE TYPICAL/AVERAGE LIVING AREAS RANGE FROM 938 SQ.FT. FOR WESTBURY TO 1,082 SQ.FT. FOR THE HOMECOMING THE TYPICAL/AVERAGE RENTS RANGE FROM $2,819 PER MONTH FOR WESTBURY TO $3,161 PER MONTH FOR HOMECOMING THE NEW ACTIVE AND FORTHCOMING APARTMENTS HAVE A SUFFICIENT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT ABSORPTION OF ABOUT 500 UNITS ANNUALLY DURING THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. 10 ANNUAL STUDY: PAGE 33 10 MARKET DEMAND IS ESTIMATED BASED UPON THE CITY’S OVERALL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WITH SPECIAL CONSIDERATION FOR NEWLY DEVELOPING WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES WITH ~2,800 NEW JOBS. ABSORPTION AMONG THE PROJECTS IS PRIORITIZED ACCORDING TO THEIR CURRENT DEVELOPMENT APPROVAL STATUS. THE PACE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A SYNCHRONIZED MANNER TO MAINTAIN STABLE RENTS. SHOULD EXCESS UNITS ENTER THE MARKETPLACE, RENTS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED TO MAINTAIN ABSORPTION. ESTIMATED ABSORPTION FOR NEW APARTMENT PROJECTS CURRENTLY ACTIVE HOMECOMING-867 THE CORE-193 WESTBURY-131 UNDER CONSTRUCTION ALTA CURVEE-260 HAVEN/ARROW-248 FUTURE PROJECTS ALEXAN- VICTORIA GARDENS: 385 HARVEST TERRA VISTA: 660 FOOTHILL LANDING: 367 33 NORTH-311 LEAP DEVELOPMENT 158 11 ANNUAL STUDY: PAGE 39 11 12 . BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH SPEED RAIL ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL NEARBY DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES 12 13 CRITICAL COMPONENTS: RIDERSHIP EXPANSION DETAILS PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA (RC) PROVIDED WITH ANNUAL RIDESHIP NUMBERS (MILLON) FROM brightline. In YR. 1, TRAFFIC IS EXPECTED TO start at 6m in terms of ridership with one-third of the trains running. In YR. 4, TRAFFIC IS EXPECTED TO BE 8m in terms of ridership with two-thirds of the trains running. In YR. 8, TRAFFIC IS EXPECTED TO BE 8.9m in terms of ridership with most of the trains anticipated needed. Starting in YR. 11, CAPACITY WILL BE INCREASED. PLEASE NOTE THESE estimated traffic figures are RELATIVELY high annual ridership counts for u.s. BASED rail service. HSR STUDY: PAGE 6 13 A. OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL HIGH-SPEED RAIL AND THEIR RECREATIONAL DESTINATIONS 14 Empire identified eleven international high speed rail (HSR) projects that are recreation oriented. Of these, six are regarded as being the most comparable; their characteristics are as follows: (Note: Passenger figures reflect post-Covid levels which are 40%-60% of pre-Covid levels and growing) The BW-HSR destination is Las Vegas (LV) which has a significantly more recreational amenities than other HSR destinations. LV HAS casino revenues of $8 billion/yr., along with 150,000+ hotel rooms, and 2,700+ restaurants. HSR STUDY: PAGE 15 14 15 TGV TO DISNEYLAND PARIS There are potentially 10M Tourists traveling between the TGV Paris station and the station for Disneyland Paris (Marne-la-Vallée – Chessy) Disneyland Paris funded one third of $126.5 million of Euros needed to build the station. Disney acknowledges that HSR is a popular means to reach the park and at least 60% of the guests use HSR. CHARACTERISTICS OF MOST COMPARABLE HSR EXAMPLES EUROSTAR LONDON TO PARIS There are over 11M passengers between London Paris It took time for the train travel to replace the air travel, as exhibited by the charts below: HSR STUDY: PAGE 17 15 16 C. OVERVIEW OF BUSY DOMESTIC RAIL STATIONS The 6M potential passengers a year would put the RC-Station in the Top 5 busiest commuter passenger stations in the U.S. Empire analyzed the top 6 busiest passenger rail stations to understand amenities. Since information on the BW-HSR are not yet available, Empire provides some preliminary features, with the understanding that these are subject to refinement/revisionS. HSR STUDY: PAGE 20 16 17 RANCHO CUCAMONGA - RECENT AND FORECASTED LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT BY TYPE (2023-EST. RECENT TO 2030 FORECAST) HIGH SPEED RAIL PROVIDES DIRECT AND INDIRECT GROWTH: TEMPORARY FOR CONSTRUCTION POSITIONS – 1,900 TOTAL (STARTING IN 2024 AND ENDING IN 2028) SUSTAINING LONG TERM OPERATIONS HIGH SPEED RAIL ADMIN/SUPPORT SERVICES – 275 TOTAL STARTING IN 2029 FURTHER GROWTH: HIGH SPEED GENERATES OTHER SUPPORT SECTOR JOBS AT A MULTIPLER OF AN ADDITIONAL 0.7 PER RAIL JOB ACCELERATING EMPLOYMENT GROWTH INITIALLY BASED ON HISTORICAL RATIO OF SUPPORT/CORE SECTORS BUT THEN LOSS OF TEMPORARY JOBS MODERATES EMPLOYMENT IN LATER 2029, THEN ONLY OPERATION EMPLOYMENT CONTINUES THIS GRAPH DOES NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDE ADDITIONAL EMPLOYMENT THAT WOULD BE GENERATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF RESTAURANTS, HOTELS AND OTHER FACILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE RC STATION HSR STUDY: PAGE 11 17 18 PASSENGER TOURISM OCCURS IN BOTH DIRECTIONS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA VISITORS TO LAS VEGAS- MAJORITY ALSO LAS VEGAS VISITORS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 6,000,000 560,000 HSR STUDY: PAGE 4 18 H. ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL NUMBER OF VISITORS FROM LAS VEGAS COMING TO THE BW-HSR STATION FOR TOURISM HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO There is not currently available data that provides an estimate of the number of visitors from Las Vegas (LV) that will likely come to the Inland Empire (IE) and then utilize the RC-HSR Station as an embarkation point for their tourism activities. Accordingly, Empire formulated an algorithm to estimate the number of such LV visitors to the RC-Station, some 302,263 annually. 19 Empire expects 302K passengers To use the RC station from Las Vegas ORIGINS OF VISITORS COMING TO THE INLAND EMPIRE HSR STUDY: PAGE 29 19 I. ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF RAIL – POTENTIAL REAL ESTATE PREMIUMS 20 The University of Florida College of Business Bergstrom Real Estate Center performed an analysis of how property values were impacted by the BF-HSR For each of the BF-HSR stations, changes in property values were analyzed before as well as after each of the following events 1-public announcement 2-beginning of construction 3-opening of the station Furthermore, these property value changes were then compared: Properties closest to the station Properties furthest from the station the overall results reflected about a 9% premium for the residential property values that were located closest to each of the Brightline stations, as compared to those properties that were furthest. . HSR STUDY: PAGE 31 20