HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024-07-24 - SupplementalsCITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA
ANNUAL ECONOMIC AND HOUSING STUDY
&
BRIGHTLINE WEST HSR STUDY
***PRESENTATION TO HISTORIC PRESERVATION COMMISSION AND
PLANNING COMMISSION***
PREPARED BY
EMPIRE ECONOMICS, INC.
JOSEPH T. JANCZYK, PH.D.
JULY 24, 2024
1
2
ANNUAL ECONOMIC AND HOUSING STUDY
CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: EMPLOYMENT FORECAST TO 2030
•Collectively, total employment is expected to rise ~12,800 from 2023-Est. to 2030-F
•Forecasted total employment is the sum of the forecasted growth of the 14 primary sectors
•Overall, growth per year is expected to moderate from 3.2% in 2024-F / 2023-Est. down to a range of 1.7-1.9% for 2027-F-2030-F
•Note: all forecasts are without the high speed rail and reflect total nonfarm employees by firms located in the City
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20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
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CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: RECENT/EXPECTED
LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT BY FIRMS LOCATED IN THE CITY
FOR 2018-2030-F
WITHOUT HIGH SPEED RAIL
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CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
CHANGE PER YEAR OVER PRIOR YEAR THROUGH 2030 FORECASTED
WITHOUT HIGH SPEED RAIL
RANCHO CUCAMONGA – EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTORS: 2018 – 2030
2018 to 2030-F:
(+) Highest share gains:
-Administrative and
support services (+8%)
-Transportation and
warehousing (+2%)
-Wholesale (+3%)
(-) Greatest share losses:
-Manufacturing (-6%)
-Retail trade (-4%)
-Construction (-2%)
-Finance and Insurance (-2%)
Note: Changes rounded to nearest %
13%10%7%
13%13%
12%
12%13%
13%
12%10%
8%
10%14%
18%
8%7%6%
8%9%
9%
6%4%7%
6%7%8%
5%4%3%
4%5%6%
2%2%3%1%<1%<1%1%1%1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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F
CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: RECENT/EXPECTED
LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT BY FIRMS LOCATED IN THE CITY
SECTOR NONFARM SHARE FOR 2018, 2023-Est., AND 2030-F
WITHOUT HIGH SPEED RAIL
Educational Services
Management of Companies
Real Estate, Rental, Leasing
Professional, Scientific, Tech.
Finance & Insurance
Wholesale Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Health Care & Social Assist.
Construction
Administrative & Support
Retail Trade
Government
Accommodation & Food
Manufacturing
LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT VS. AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING
*WITHOUT HIGH SPEED RAIL*
•RANCHO CUCAMONGA’S HOUSEHOLDS WITH JOBS (BLUE LINE) EXCEED THE NUMBER OF JOBS BY FIRMS IN THE CITY (GREEN LINE)
•FOR 2000, ABOUT 36,745 (NET) CITY RESIDENTS COMMUTE TO JOBS OUTSIDE THE CITY, TYPICALLY AT HIGHER SALARIES
THAT ENABLE THEM TO AFFORD HOUSING IN THE CITY.
•THE GAP IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ~13,000 BY 2030 (THIS EXCLUDES THE HIGH SPEED RAIL EMPLOYMENT) .
73,575
85,816
77,411
93,100
87,900
97,000 102,220 105,460
36,830
65,139 58,210
74,445
68,040
79,413
87,322 92,216
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
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CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA:
EMPLOYMENT BY FIRMS AND HOUSEHOLDS
*BASELINE -WITHOUT HIGH SPEED RAIL*
Working Households Residing in Rancho Cucamonga
Firms - Employees Located in Rancho Cucamonga
5ANNUAL STUDY: PAGE 20
RANCHO CUCAMONGA HOUSING SUPPLY, DEMAND,
AND PRICE APPRECIATION (JAN. 2018 – DEC. 2023)
A. IN 2018 TO EARLY 2020, THE CITY HOUSING INVENTORY (SUPPLY/RED) WAS HIGHER THAN PENDING SALES (DEMAND/GREEN), NORMAL
B. HOWEVER, BEGINNING IN 2ND QUARTER OF 2020, HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY STARTED TO CONVERGE AND MET IN 2021
C. ONCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND CURVES STARTED TO CONVERGE, THIS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRICE APPRECIATION
D. DURING 2022, INVENTORY EXCEEDED PENDING SALES, CLOSER TO NORMAL PATTERNS, BUT INVENTORY IS STILL LOW DUE TO HIGH RATES
E. DURING 2023, WITH HIGH MORTGAGE RATES, INVENTORY DECLINED TO LEVELS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE SALES
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50%
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100
200
300
400
500
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800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
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RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS AND HOUSING INVENTORY,
AND CUMULATIVE LAGGED 12 MONTH HOUSING PRICE CHANGE SINCE JAN. 2018
(JANUARY 2018 -DECEMBER 2023)
Rancho Cucamonga Housing Price Change Rancho Cucamonga Housing Inventory
Rancho Cucamonga Pending Sales
AFTER FIRST YEAR OF
COVID,INVENTORY
FELL CLOSER TO AND
EVEN BELOW
PENDING SALES
2020 Q2:
First Qtr. of
Significant
COVID
EBCDA
ANNUAL STUDY: PAGE 28
RANCHO CUCAMONGA – ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS BY MONTH (JAN. 2018 – DEC. 2025 FORECAST)
ANNUAL HOUSING PAYMENTS REPRESENT THE SUM OF MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL, MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES AND PROPERTY TAXES
2019-2021:
LOWER RATES OFFSET
HOUSING APPRECIATION,
PAYMENTS OF $40,000/YR.
2022-23:
HIGHER PRICES AND
HIGHER MORTGAGE
RATES DROVE PAYMENTS
HIGHER WITH
PEAK PAYMENTS OF
$60,000/YR.
ANNUAL HOUSING
PAYMENT LEVELS
2024-2025:
FOR PAYMENTS TO
RETURN TO THEIR
2019-2022 LEVELS
OF $40,000/YR.,
HOUSING PRICES
WOULD NEED TO
DECLINE BY -11%
** AND **
MORTGAGE RATES
WOULD NEED TO
DECLINE TO 4.5%
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
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RANCHO CUCAMONGA (JAN. '18 -DEC. '25-F) -ESTIMATED ANNUAL HOUSING
PAYMENT COMPONENTS (MORTGAGE INTEREST + MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL +
PROPERTY TAXES)
PROPERTY TAX MORTG-PRINCIPAL MORTG-INTEREST
MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES
MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL (HOUSING PRICE APPRECIATION)
PROPERTY TAXES (HOUSING PRICE APPRECIATION)EMPIRE ECONOMICS
~$40K
+ ~50%
DEC.
2021
DEC.
2023 DEC.
2025
~$60K
~$40K
DEC 2023 TO DEC. 2025 PRICES -11%
WITH MORTGAGE RATES TO 4.5%
7ANNUAL STUDY: PAGE 25
**SAVINGS WITH LOW
MORTGAGE RATE**
4%
43%
81%
91%
100%
30%
68%
85%
92%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
Below 3% Below 4%Below 5%Below 6%Below 7%
EXISTING HOMEOWNERS -MORTGAGE RATES CUMULATIVELY
RECENT APRIL 2024 MORTGAGES RATES WERE ABOVE 7.0%
SUBSTANTIAL DECLINES IN MORTGAGES RATES ARE REQUIRED
TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE INVENTORY OF EXISTING HOME SALES
2019Q4 2023Q3
MORTGAGE
RATES MAY
NOT DECLINE
BELOW 3.0%
*UNLESS*
THERE IS A
MAJOR
ECONOMIC OR
GEO -
POLITICAL
CRISIS
MORTGAGE
RATES MAY
NOT DECLINE
BELOW 4.0%
SINCE THE
EMPLOYMENT
IS STRONG
AND THE FED
WILL BE
NEUTRAL
8
EXISTING HOMEOWNER MORTGAGE RATES
BY CUMULATIVE COHORTS 2019Q4 AND 2023Q3
RECENTLY
7.0%+
9
RECAP POETIC VERSION – AI
With each uptick in rates, demand took flight,
Yet those with low rates clung tight.
Nestled in dwellings with rates of yore,
Content in the homes they adore.
They watched the market with speculative eyes,
As excess demand pushed prices to the skies.
The Fed with its target, firm at two percent,
Aims for stability, that's their intent.
As rates recede, like a low tide's retreat,
Hope for buyers begins to replete.
With the promise of rates that gently decline,
Dreams of ownership once more align.
Yet, as housing demand starts to renew,
The supply constricted, still options too few.
ANNUAL STUDY: ADDED
IV.MARKET CONDITIONS FOR APARTMENT RENTALS
THE COMPOSITION OF THE RANCHO CUCAMONGA HOUSING MARKET HAS RECENTLY UNDERGONE
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM NEW FOR-SALE HOMES TO NEW APARTMENT RENTALS.
RANCHO CUCAMONGA APARTMENT MARKET HAS EXPERIENCED ROBUST ACTIVITY:
THREE PROJECTS ON THE MARKET
ANOTHER TWO UNDER CONSTRUCTION
FIVE MORE PROJECTS ARE IN THE PLANNING PROCESS.
APARTMENT RENTS SURGED IN 2021 BY +20%, BUT HAVE SINCE MODERATED TO A RATE OF ABOUT 4%.
THE SURGE IN RENT STIMULATED THE PLANNING/DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME 3,580 RENTAL UNITS
THE TYPICAL/AVERAGE LIVING AREAS RANGE FROM 938 SQ.FT. FOR WESTBURY TO 1,082 SQ.FT. FOR THE HOMECOMING
THE TYPICAL/AVERAGE RENTS RANGE FROM $2,819 PER MONTH FOR WESTBURY TO $3,161 PER MONTH FOR HOMECOMING
THE NEW ACTIVE AND FORTHCOMING APARTMENTS HAVE A SUFFICIENT SUPPLY TO SUPPORT ABSORPTION OF ABOUT 500 UNITS
ANNUALLY DURING THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
10ANNUAL STUDY: PAGE 33
•MARKET DEMAND IS ESTIMATED BASED UPON THE CITY’S OVERALL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WITH SPECIAL CONSIDERATION FOR
NEWLY DEVELOPING WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES WITH ~2,800 NEW JOBS.
• ABSORPTION AMONG THE PROJECTS IS PRIORITIZED ACCORDING TO THEIR CURRENT DEVELOPMENT APPROVAL STATUS.
•THE PACE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A SYNCHRONIZED MANNER TO MAINTAIN STABLE RENTS.
•SHOULD EXCESS UNITS ENTER THE MARKETPLACE, RENTS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED TO MAINTAIN ABSORPTION.
ESTIMATED ABSORPTION FOR NEW APARTMENT PROJECTS
CURRENTLY ACTIVE
HOMECOMING-867
THE CORE-193
WESTBURY-131
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
ALTA CURVEE-260
HAVEN/ARROW-248
FUTURE PROJECTS
ALEXAN- VICTORIA GARDENS: 385
HARVEST TERRA VISTA: 660
FOOTHILL LANDING: 367
33 NORTH-311
LEAP DEVELOPMENT 158
11
208
284 250
125
0 0 0
0
25
68
0 0 0
0
11
90
30
0 0 0 0
0
0
50 0 0 0
0
0
127
121
0 0 0
0
0 329
500 552
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029+
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RANCHO CUCAMONGA NEW APARTMENT PROJECTS
ACTIVE/LEASING, CONSTRUCTION AND FUTURE
HOMECOMING THE CORE WESTBURY
ALTA CURVEE-260 HAVEN/ARROW:248 FUTURE PROJECTSANNUAL STUDY: PAGE 39
12
.
BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH SPEED RAIL
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
AND
POTENTIAL NEARBY DEVELOPMENT
OPPORTUNITIES
13
CRITICAL COMPONENTS: RIDERSHIP EXPANSION DETAILS
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA (RC) PROVIDED WITH ANNUAL RIDESHIP NUMBERS (MILLON) FROM BRIGHTLINE.
•IN YR. 1, TRAFFIC IS EXPECTED TO START AT 6M IN TERMS OF RIDERSHIP WITH ONE-THIRD OF THE TRAINS RUNNING.
•IN YR. 4, TRAFFIC IS EXPECTED TO BE 8M IN TERMS OF RIDERSHIP WITH TWO-THIRDS OF THE TRAINS RUNNING.
•IN YR. 8, TRAFFIC IS EXPECTED TO BE 8.9M IN TERMS OF RIDERSHIP WITH MOST OF THE TRAINS ANTICIPATED NEEDED.
•STARTING IN YR. 11, CAPACITY WILL BE INCREASED.
PLEASE NOTE THESE ESTIMATED TRAFFIC FIGURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH ANNUAL RIDERSHIP COUNTS FOR U.S. BASED RAIL SERVICE.
HSR STUDY: PAGE 6
A. OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL HIGH-SPEED RAILAND THEIR RECREATIONAL DESTINATIONS
14
EMPIRE IDENTIFIED ELEVEN INTERNATIONAL HIGH SPEED RAIL (HSR) PROJECTS THAT ARE RECREATION ORIENTED.
OF THESE, SIX ARE REGARDED AS BEING THE MOST COMPARABLE; THEIR CHARACTERISTICS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
(NOTE: PASSENGER FIGURES REFLECT POST-COVID LEVELS WHICH ARE 40%-60% OF PRE-COVID LEVELS AND GROWING)
THE BW-HSR DESTINATION IS LAS VEGAS (LV) WHICH HAS A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RECREATIONAL AMENITIES
THAN OTHER HSR DESTINATIONS.
LV HAS CASINO REVENUES OF $8 BILLION/YR., ALONG WITH 150,000+ HOTEL ROOMS, AND 2,700+ RESTAURANTS.
High-speed
Rail Line Country Departure
City
Destination/
Recreation Center
Estimated
Annual
Ridership
(Millions)
Distance
(miles)
Departure Station
Amenities
Promotes
Tourism:
Departure&
Destination
Key Learning #1 Key Learning #2
1. TGV France Paris Disneyland Paris 10 28
Restaurants hotels,
historical sites, office,
space
Yes HSR boosts tourism
to Disneyland
HSR can be a node to
surrounding areas
2. Eurostar UK London Disneyland Paris 11 307
Luxury, shopping
dinning, hotels,
residential apartments
Yes Decreased air travel More consistency
in retail
3. Alta Spain Madrid Seville (historic area)3.2 329
Restaurants, hotels,
shopping centers,
botanical garden
Yes Promotes tourism Cultural/other nearby
destinations help drive
4. Frecciarossa Italy Rome Florence (art/history)10 171 Restaurants, shops,
hotels, apartments Yes Used as a node Ticket prices have
caused low adoption
5. Shinkansen Japan Tokyo Mount Fuji area 13 78 Restaurants, shopping
areas, hotels, offices Yes Increased tourism
with impact in Yr. 1
Travel mix shifts over
Time
6. CHR/CR China Beijing Great Wall at Badaling 10 50
Restaurants, hotels,
retailers, residential
towers
Yes
Important that
destination be a
node/or gateway
Local tourism important
to ongoing success
HSR STUDY: PAGE 15
15
TGV TO DISNEYLAND PARIS
•THERE ARE POTENTIALLY 10M TOURISTS
TRAVELING BETWEEN THE TGV PARIS STATION AND
THE STATION FOR DISNEYLAND PARIS (MARNE-LA-
VALLÉE – CHESSY)
•DISNEYLAND PARIS FUNDED ONE THIRD OF $126.5
MILLION OF EUROS NEEDED TO BUILD THE STATION.
•DISNEY ACKNOWLEDGES THAT HSR IS A POPULAR
MEANS TO REACH THE PARK AND AT LEAST 60% OF
THE GUESTS USE HSR.
CHARACTERISTICS OF MOST COMPARABLE HSR EXAMPLES
EUROSTAR LONDON TO PARIS
•THERE ARE OVER 11M PASSENGERS BETWEEN
LONDON PARIS
•IT TOOK TIME FOR THE TRAIN TRAVEL TO
REPLACE THE AIR TRAVEL, AS EXHIBITED BY
THE CHARTS BELOW:
HSR STUDY: PAGE 17
Station Characteristics Recommended for
Rancho Cucamonga
Los Angeles
Union Station NY Penn Station Washington
Union Station
30TH Street
Philadelphia, PA
Chicago Union
Station
South Street
Boston
Projected/2022 Passenger Traffic 6,000,000 928,000 8,008,000 3,631,000 3,058,000 2,359,000 1,216,000
BASIC OPERATIONS
Staff Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Ticketing Kiosks Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Ticketing Office Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Arrival suggestion baggage -Minutes TBD 60 45 45 45 60 45
Arrival suggestion non-baggage-Minutes TBD 30 30 30 30 30 30
Restrooms Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Elevator Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Vending Machine Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
TECH/FINANCIAL
ATM Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Wifi Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes
QSR Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
AMENITIES
Metropolitan Lounge Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Convince stores Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Coffee Shops Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bar Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Cultural Events TBD No No No No No No
CONNECTIONS
Transit Hub TBD Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
16
C. OVERVIEW OF BUSY DOMESTIC RAIL STATIONS
THE 6M POTENTIAL PASSENGERS A YEAR WOULD PUT THE RC-STATION IN THE TOP 5 BUSIEST COMMUTER
PASSENGER STATIONS IN THE U.S.
EMPIRE ANALYZED THE TOP 6 BUSIEST PASSENGER RAIL STATIONS TO UNDERSTAND AMENITIES.
SINCE INFORMATION ON THE BW-HSR ARE NOT YET AVAILABLE, EMPIRE PROVIDES SOME PRELIMINARY
FEATURES, WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THESE ARE SUBJECT TO REFINEMENT/REVISIONS.
HSR STUDY: PAGE 20
17
RANCHO CUCAMONGA - RECENT AND FORECASTED LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT BY TYPE
(2023-EST. RECENT TO 2030 FORECAST)
•HIGH SPEED RAIL PROVIDES DIRECT AND INDIRECT GROWTH:
•TEMPORARY FOR CONSTRUCTION POSITIONS – 1,900 TOTAL (STARTING IN 2024 AND ENDING IN 2028)
•SUSTAINING LONG TERM OPERATIONS HIGH SPEED RAIL ADMIN/SUPPORT SERVICES – 275 TOTAL STARTING IN 2029
•FURTHER GROWTH: HIGH SPEED GENERATES OTHER SUPPORT SECTOR JOBS AT A MULTIPLER OF AN ADDITIONAL 0.7 PER RAIL JOB
•ACCELERATING EMPLOYMENT GROWTH INITIALLY BASED ON HISTORICAL RATIO OF SUPPORT/CORE SECTORS
•BUT THEN LOSS OF TEMPORARY JOBS MODERATES EMPLOYMENT IN LATER 2029, THEN ONLY OPERATION EMPLOYMENT CONTINUES
75,000
79,000
83,000
87,000
91,000
95,000
2023-Est.2024-F 2025-F 2026-F 2027-F 2028-F 2029-F 2030-F
CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: ANNUAL CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY
FIRMS LOCATED IN THE CITY BY TYPE
(2023-EST TO 2030-FORECAST) -*WITH HIGH SPEED RAIL*
TOTAL NONFARM - BASELINE GROWTH BASED HIGH SPEED RAIL - CONSTRUCTION
HIGH SPEED RAIL - OPERATIONS (ADMIN AND SUPPORT)HIGH SPEED RAIL - ALL SUPPORT SECTORS
THIS GRAPH DOES NOT
CURRENTLY INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL EMPLOYMENT
THAT WOULD BE
GENERATED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF
RESTAURANTS, HOTELS AND
OTHER FACILITIES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RC STATION
HSR STUDY: PAGE 11
18
PASSENGER TOURISM OCCURS IN BOTH DIRECTIONS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA VISITORS TO LAS VEGAS- MAJORITY
ALSO LAS VEGAS VISITORS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HSR STUDY: PAGE 4
6.0M
1.9M
560K 302K
4.1M
1.4M
258K
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1. Total
Domestic
vistors --> So
Cal
Remove
Visitors not
from LV
(67.8%)
2. LV Visitors -
-> So CA
(32.2%)
Remove sc
vistors not to
IE (90.7%)
3. Estimated
number of LV
vistors to IE
Remove IE
vistors not
Using Rail
4. Visitors
from LV to IE
Using BW-
HSR
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF VISITORS FROM LAS VEGAS
TRAVELING TO THE INLAND EMPIRE
(BASED UPON PLAUSIBLE BUT CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS)
H. ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL NUMBER OF VISITORS FROM LAS VEGAS
COMING TO THE BW-HSR STATION FOR TOURISM HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO
THERE IS NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE DATA THAT PROVIDES AN ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF VISITORS FROM
LAS VEGAS (LV) THAT WILL LIKELY COME TO THE INLAND EMPIRE (IE) AND THEN UTILIZE THE RC-HSR STATION
AS AN EMBARKATION POINT FOR THEIR TOURISM ACTIVITIES.
ACCORDINGLY, EMPIRE FORMULATED AN ALGORITHM TO ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF SUCH LV VISITORS TO
THE RC-STATION, SOME 302,263 ANNUALLY.
19
ORIGINS OF VISITORS COMING TO THE INLAND EMPIRE
HSR STUDY: PAGE 29
I. ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF RAIL – POTENTIAL REAL ESTATE PREMIUMS
20
THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS BERGSTROM REAL
ESTATE CENTER PERFORMED AN ANALYSIS OF HOW PROPERTY VALUES WERE
IMPACTED BY THE BF-HSR
FOR EACH OF THE BF-HSR STATIONS, CHANGES IN PROPERTY VALUES WERE
ANALYZED BEFORE AS WELL AS AFTER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
1-PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
2-BEGINNING OF CONSTRUCTION
3-OPENING OF THE STATION
FURTHERMORE, THESE PROPERTY VALUE CHANGES WERE THEN COMPARED:
PROPERTIES CLOSEST TO THE STATION
PROPERTIES FURTHEST FROM THE STATION
THE OVERALL RESULTS REFLECTED ABOUT A 9% PREMIUM FOR THE
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES THAT WERE LOCATED CLOSEST TO EACH OF
THE BRIGHTLINE STATIONS, AS COMPARED TO THOSE PROPERTIES THAT
WERE FURTHEST.
.
HSR STUDY: PAGE 31